NASDAQ$AFRM

Affirm · Q4 2021 earnings

Q4 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Affirm reported strong Q4 2021 results, exceeding financial outlook with accelerated GMV and revenue growth.

Affirm's Q4 2021 results demonstrated significant growth, with a 106% increase in GMV and a 71% increase in total revenue. The company expanded its network by nearly doubling active consumers and growing active merchants by over 400%.

  • GMV increased by 106% to $2.5 billion.
  • Active merchants grew by 412% to nearly 29,000.
  • Active consumers grew by 97% to 7.1 million.
  • Total revenue increased by 71% to $261.8 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$262M

Previous: $153M+70.7%
EPS (adj)

-$0.48

Previous: $0.72-166.7%
GMV

$2.5B

Previous: $1.2B+108.3%
Active Consumers

7.1M

Previous: 3.6M+97.2%
Tx per Consumer

2.3

Previous: 2.1+9.5%
Active Merchants

29.0K

Previous: 5.7K+408.8%
Capital Expenditures

$7.84M

Previous: $2.32M+238.6%
Free Cash Flow

-$27.8M

Previous: -$30.8M+9.8%
Net Income

-$128M

Previous: $35.7M-459.3%
Operating Income

-$125M

Previous: $39.3M-417.1%
Gross Profit

$169M

Previous: $107M+57.9%
Cash & Equivalents

$1.47B

Previous: $267M+449.2%
Total Assets

$4.87B

Previous: $1.4B+247.1%
Stock-Based Comp

$136M

Previous: $5.04M+2591.9%

Revenue & EPS history

Affirm · Revenue · Quarterly

$262M

Q4 2021+70.7%vs Q4 2020
Beat estimate in 6 of 10 quarters(60%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Affirm provided financial outlook for Q1 2022 and fiscal year 2022, but has not included estimates from the Amazon partnership or Affirm Debit+ rollout. The company expects moderation in GMV and revenue from Peloton in fiscal year 2022.

Tailwinds

  • GMV for fiscal Q1 2022 is expected to be $2.42 to $2.52 billion.
  • Revenue for fiscal Q1 2022 is expected to be $240 to $250 million.
  • GMV for fiscal year 2022 is expected to be $12.45 to $12.75 billion.
  • Revenue for fiscal year 2022 is expected to be $1.16 to $1.19 billion.
  • Strategic progress achieved in fiscal year 2021 sets up for long-term growth.

Headwinds

  • Adjusted operating loss for fiscal Q1 2022 is expected to be $(68) to $(63) million.
  • Transaction costs for fiscal Q1 2022 are expected to be $145 to $150 million.
  • Revenue less transaction costs for fiscal Q1 2022 are expected to be $95 to $100 million.
  • Adjusted operating loss for fiscal year 2022 is expected to be $(145) to $(135) million.
  • The company expects a moderation in GMV and revenue from Peloton in fiscal year 2022

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2021

Historical avgQ4 2021

+0.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

+2.3%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.4%

Avg return

30 days after

35%

9 / 26 earnings

Positive

+62.1%

Q3 2022

Best reaction

-37.7%

Q2 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q3 2026-1.2%-6.2%-5.6%
Q2 2026-4.0%-4.8%-13.0%
Q1 2026+11.7%+19.7%+3.1%
Q3 2025-14.7%+4.2%+8.6%
Q2 2025+21.8%+22.5%-15.8%
Q1 2025-7.0%+15.2%+43.8%
Q4 2024+28.1%+35.4%+26.6%
Q3 2024-0.3%-8.3%-13.9%
Q2 2024-1.7%-10.9%-13.1%
Q1 2024+12.5%+3.6%+90.4%
Q4 2023+22.6%+32.0%+39.1%
Q3 2023+2.6%+1.1%+57.9%
Q2 2023-22.8%-26.2%-39.7%
Q1 2023-22.6%+8.8%-25.7%
Q4 2022-18.7%-22.1%-36.2%
Q3 2022+62.1%+72.5%+39.7%
Q2 2022-37.7%-40.0%-58.7%
Q1 2022-3.8%-6.2%-27.3%
Q4 2019-8.4%-3.0%+24.8%
Q4 2021+41.3%+23.4%+61.3%
Q3 2020-4.4%-1.2%+24.8%
Q3 2021+2.7%+0.0%+11.6%
Q1 2021-11.4%-12.0%-35.1%
Q4 2020-11.4%-12.0%-35.1%
Q2 2020-11.4%-12.0%-35.1%
Q2 2021-7.6%-12.5%-41.6%
Q1 2020

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