NYSE$TKR

The Timken Company · Q4 2021 earnings

Q4 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported sales increase of 13 percent with GAAP EPS of $0.82 and adjusted EPS of $0.78.

Timken announced fourth-quarter sales of $1.01 billion, a 13% increase year-over-year. GAAP EPS was $0.82, and adjusted EPS was $0.78. The company expects strong revenue and earnings growth in 2022.

  • Sales of $1.01 billion in the fourth quarter, up 13 percent from last year
  • Fourth-quarter earnings per diluted share of $0.82 on a GAAP basis, with adjusted EPS of $0.78
  • Record full-year 2021 earnings per diluted share of $4.79 on a GAAP basis and record adjusted EPS of $4.72
  • Company expects strong revenue and earnings growth in 2022; provides initial estimate for 2022 GAAP earnings per diluted share of $4.85-5.25, with adjusted EPS of $5.00-5.40

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.01B

Previous: $892M+12.9%
EPS (adj)

$0.78

Previous: $0.84-7.1%
Capital Expenditures

$148M

Previous: $122M+22.0%
Free Cash Flow

$58.1M

Previous: $84.6M-31.3%
Net Income

$62.9M

Previous: $53.1M+18.5%
Operating Income

$86.1M

Previous: $98.8M-12.9%
Gross Profit

$233M

Previous: $237M-1.6%
Cash & Equivalents

$257M

Previous: $320M-19.7%
Total Assets

$5.17B

Previous: $5.04B+2.6%
Stock-Based Comp

$4.6M

Previous: $4M+15.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Timken · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.01B

Q4 2021+12.9%vs Q4 2020
Beat estimate in 10 of 16 quarters(63%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Timken · $1.14B total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Engineered Bearings
    $776M
  • Industrial Motion
    $367M

Forward guidance

Timken is currently planning for 2022 revenue to be up approximately 10 percent in total versus 2021. The company is setting an initial outlook for earnings per diluted share in the range of $4.85 to $5.25 for the full year on a GAAP basis. Excluding special items, the company estimates that 2022 adjusted earnings per diluted share will be in the range of $5.00 to $5.40.

Tailwinds

  • Anticipate strong revenue and earnings growth in 2022
  • Driven by continued robust industrial demand
  • Price realization
  • Outgrowth initiatives
  • Well-positioned to deliver record revenue and earnings again in 2022

Headwinds

  • Operating environment remains dynamic, with a higher degree of uncertainty than normal
  • Planning for the supply chain challenges experienced in the second half of 2021 to largely persist through 2022
  • Inflationary pressures experienced in the second half of 2021 to largely persist through 2022
  • Supply chain challenges
  • Inflationary pressures

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2021

Historical avgQ4 2021

-0.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.7%

Avg return

30 days after

50%

34 / 68 earnings

Positive

+14.9%

Q4 2015

Best reaction

-14.6%

Q3 2013

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.3%+7.0%+20.2%
Q4 2025+3.2%+13.3%+3.7%
Q3 2025+2.4%+0.9%+5.4%
Q1 2025-1.6%+1.7%+4.9%
Q4 2024+3.5%+3.3%-2.3%
Q3 2024-5.0%-7.8%-8.7%
Q2 2024-1.2%-5.4%-1.2%
Q1 2024+0.9%+3.2%-0.3%
Q4 2023-5.6%-3.9%-1.1%
Q3 2023+2.6%+3.6%+8.0%
Q2 2023-11.4%-13.1%-14.1%
Q1 2023-4.0%-1.6%+1.2%
Q4 2022-1.4%-3.2%+1.7%
Q3 2022+0.2%+4.0%+9.6%
Q2 2022+5.5%+2.5%+4.6%
Q1 2022+5.6%+2.4%+4.0%
Q4 2021-1.2%-1.7%-4.7%
Q3 2021+1.2%+2.5%-8.3%
Q2 2021-4.0%-4.4%-8.4%
Q1 2021+4.2%+2.0%+5.6%
Q4 2020-9.3%-7.2%+0.6%
Q3 2020+5.5%+13.0%+32.1%
Q2 2020+7.4%+13.5%+25.7%
Q1 2020-2.6%-3.4%+13.2%
Q4 2019-0.2%+2.2%-18.0%
Q3 2019-0.1%+8.1%+7.2%
Q2 2019-10.9%-12.6%-17.1%
Q1 2019+5.4%+7.2%-8.2%
Q4 2018-3.5%-0.5%-2.0%
Q3 2018+1.5%+8.1%+5.9%
Q2 2018+1.2%+1.1%+6.3%
Q1 2018+6.3%+8.2%+10.6%
Q4 2017-9.7%-8.6%-4.0%
Q3 2017-5.4%-8.8%-8.8%
Q2 2017-6.5%-7.8%-11.1%
Q1 2017+1.1%-0.2%-4.4%
Q4 2016+2.6%+3.1%+1.2%
Q3 2016-5.6%-6.7%+13.3%
Q2 2016+3.2%+2.9%+5.4%
Q1 2016-1.5%
Q4 2015+14.9%
Q3 2015+7.9%
Q2 2015+1.0%
Q1 2015-3.8%
Q4 2014-6.2%
Q3 2014+0.7%
Q2 2014-4.3%
Q1 2014+2.9%
Q4 2013+3.3%
Q3 2013-14.6%
Q2 2013-5.5%
Q1 2013+1.0%
Q4 2012+2.7%
Q3 2012+2.5%
Q2 2012-0.3%
Q1 2012-0.2%
Q4 2011+1.6%
Q1 2010+1.6%
Q3 2011+8.7%
Q2 2011-8.9%
Q1 2011+1.6%
Q4 2010-7.6%
Q4 2008-7.6%
Q3 2009+6.0%
Q3 2010+6.0%
Q2 2009-0.5%
Q2 2010-0.5%
Q4 2009-0.5%

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