NYSE$TKR

The Timken Company · Q3 2020 earnings

Q3 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported third-quarter sales of $895 million with earnings per diluted share of $1.16 on a GAAP basis.

Timken reported third-quarter sales of $894.6 million, a decrease of 2.1 percent compared to the same period last year. Earnings per diluted share were $1.16 on a GAAP basis, and adjusted EPS was $1.13. The company generated $153.6 million in cash from operations and $124.4 million in free cash flow.

  • Third-quarter sales were $895 million, down 2.1 percent from last year.
  • Earnings per diluted share were $1.16 on a GAAP basis, with adjusted EPS of $1.13.
  • Generated strong cash from operations of $154 million and free cash flow of $124 million in the quarter.
  • Markets continued to recover from the April trough, with revenue exceeding expectations and approaching last year’s level.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$895M

Previous: $914M-2.1%
EPS (adj)

$1.13

Previous: $1.14-0.9%
Free Cash Flow

$88.8M

Previous: $64.2M+38.3%
Net Income

$88.8M

Previous: $64.2M+38.3%
Operating Income

$119M

Previous: $128M-7.0%
Gross Profit

$264M

Previous: $278M-5.0%
Cash & Equivalents

$313M

Previous: $181M+72.6%
Total Assets

$4.91B

Previous: $4.57B+7.5%
Stock-Based Comp

$7.8M

Previous: $5.8M+34.5%

Revenue & EPS history

Timken · Revenue · Quarterly

$895M

Q3 2020-2.1%vs Q3 2019
Beat estimate in 11 of 16 quarters(69%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Timken · $1.14B total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Engineered Bearings
    $776M
  • Industrial Motion
    $367M

Forward guidance

The company expects markets to remain relatively stable with normal seasonality through the end of the year and is focused on finishing 2020 strong. The company is not providing full year 2020 sales and earnings guidance at this time.

Tailwinds

  • Solid demand across most markets.
  • Strong balance sheet.
  • Strong cash flow.
  • Well positioned heading into 2021.
  • Focused on strategy to deliver long-term profitable growth.

Headwinds

  • There remains a fair amount of uncertainty surrounding the pandemic.
  • Markets to remain relatively stable with normal seasonality through the end of the year.
  • Not providing full year 2020 sales and earnings guidance at this time.
  • Decline from the prior year was driven by lower demand in most end markets
  • Unfavorable impact of lower volume, price/mix and currency, and higher restructuring charges

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2020

Historical avgQ3 2020

-0.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.7%

Avg return

30 days after

50%

34 / 68 earnings

Positive

+14.9%

Q4 2015

Best reaction

-14.6%

Q3 2013

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.3%+7.0%+20.2%
Q4 2025+3.2%+13.3%+3.7%
Q3 2025+2.4%+0.9%+5.4%
Q1 2025-1.6%+1.7%+4.9%
Q4 2024+3.5%+3.3%-2.3%
Q3 2024-5.0%-7.8%-8.7%
Q2 2024-1.2%-5.4%-1.2%
Q1 2024+0.9%+3.2%-0.3%
Q4 2023-5.6%-3.9%-1.1%
Q3 2023+2.6%+3.6%+8.0%
Q2 2023-11.4%-13.1%-14.1%
Q1 2023-4.0%-1.6%+1.2%
Q4 2022-1.4%-3.2%+1.7%
Q3 2022+0.2%+4.0%+9.6%
Q2 2022+5.5%+2.5%+4.6%
Q1 2022+5.6%+2.4%+4.0%
Q4 2021-1.2%-1.7%-4.7%
Q3 2021+1.2%+2.5%-8.3%
Q2 2021-4.0%-4.4%-8.4%
Q1 2021+4.2%+2.0%+5.6%
Q4 2020-9.3%-7.2%+0.6%
Q3 2020+5.5%+13.0%+32.1%
Q2 2020+7.4%+13.5%+25.7%
Q1 2020-2.6%-3.4%+13.2%
Q4 2019-0.2%+2.2%-18.0%
Q3 2019-0.1%+8.1%+7.2%
Q2 2019-10.9%-12.6%-17.1%
Q1 2019+5.4%+7.2%-8.2%
Q4 2018-3.5%-0.5%-2.0%
Q3 2018+1.5%+8.1%+5.9%
Q2 2018+1.2%+1.1%+6.3%
Q1 2018+6.3%+8.2%+10.6%
Q4 2017-9.7%-8.6%-4.0%
Q3 2017-5.4%-8.8%-8.8%
Q2 2017-6.5%-7.8%-11.1%
Q1 2017+1.1%-0.2%-4.4%
Q4 2016+2.6%+3.1%+1.2%
Q3 2016-5.6%-6.7%+13.3%
Q2 2016+3.2%+2.9%+5.4%
Q1 2016-1.5%
Q4 2015+14.9%
Q3 2015+7.9%
Q2 2015+1.0%
Q1 2015-3.8%
Q4 2014-6.2%
Q3 2014+0.7%
Q2 2014-4.3%
Q1 2014+2.9%
Q4 2013+3.3%
Q3 2013-14.6%
Q2 2013-5.5%
Q1 2013+1.0%
Q4 2012+2.7%
Q3 2012+2.5%
Q2 2012-0.3%
Q1 2012-0.2%
Q4 2011+1.6%
Q1 2010+1.6%
Q3 2011+8.7%
Q2 2011-8.9%
Q1 2011+1.6%
Q4 2010-7.6%
Q4 2008-7.6%
Q3 2009+6.0%
Q3 2010+6.0%
Q2 2009-0.5%
Q2 2010-0.5%
Q4 2009-0.5%

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