NYSE$TKR

The Timken Company · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported strong fourth-quarter results, concluding a record-breaking 2023.

Timken reported Q4 2023 sales of $1.09 billion, a 1% increase year-over-year, with earnings per share (EPS) at $0.83 and adjusted EPS at $1.37. The company's net income for the quarter was $58.7 million. They also provided an initial estimate for 2024 EPS of $4.90-$5.30, and adjusted EPS of $5.80-$6.20.

  • Fourth-quarter sales reached $1.09 billion, a 1 percent increase from the previous year.
  • Fourth-quarter earnings per share (EPS) were reported at $0.83, with adjusted EPS at $1.37.
  • Adjusted EBITDA in the quarter was $195.4 million, representing 17.9 percent of sales.
  • The company returned $55.7 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases during the quarter.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.09B

Previous: $1.08B+0.9%
EPS (adj)

$1.37

Previous: $1.22+12.3%
Adjusted EBITDA Margin

17.9%

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$52.9M

Previous: $178M-129.7%
Net Income

$58.7M

Previous: $97.2M-39.6%
Operating Income

$119M

Previous: $127M-6.1%
Gross Profit

$314M

Previous: $296M+6.0%
Stock-Based Comp

$7.7M

Previous: $8.1M-4.9%

Revenue & EPS history

Timken · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.09B

Q4 2023+0.9%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 9 of 15 quarters(60%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Timken · $1.14B total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Engineered Bearings
    $776M
  • Industrial Motion
    $367M

Forward guidance

Timken is setting an initial outlook for 2024 revenue to be down in the range of 2.5% to 4.5% in total, as the benefit of acquisitions completed during 2023 is expected to be more than offset by lower anticipated organic revenue based on the current demand environment. The company is planning for earnings per diluted share in the range of $4.90 to $5.30 and adjusted earnings per diluted share in the range of $5.80 to $6.20.

Tailwinds

  • Actively managing costs.
  • Driving operational excellence initiatives.
  • Benefiting from recent acquisitions.
  • Accelerating integration activities.
  • Realizing synergies.

Headwinds

  • Softer industrial markets.
  • Lower anticipated organic revenue.
  • Lower demand environment.
  • Macroeconomic volatility.
  • Lower organic revenue outlook.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

-0.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.7%

Avg return

30 days after

50%

34 / 68 earnings

Positive

+14.9%

Q4 2015

Best reaction

-14.6%

Q3 2013

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.3%+7.0%+20.2%
Q4 2025+3.2%+13.3%+3.7%
Q3 2025+2.4%+0.9%+5.4%
Q1 2025-1.6%+1.7%+4.9%
Q4 2024+3.5%+3.3%-2.3%
Q3 2024-5.0%-7.8%-8.7%
Q2 2024-1.2%-5.4%-1.2%
Q1 2024+0.9%+3.2%-0.3%
Q4 2023-5.6%-3.9%-1.1%
Q3 2023+2.6%+3.6%+8.0%
Q2 2023-11.4%-13.1%-14.1%
Q1 2023-4.0%-1.6%+1.2%
Q4 2022-1.4%-3.2%+1.7%
Q3 2022+0.2%+4.0%+9.6%
Q2 2022+5.5%+2.5%+4.6%
Q1 2022+5.6%+2.4%+4.0%
Q4 2021-1.2%-1.7%-4.7%
Q3 2021+1.2%+2.5%-8.3%
Q2 2021-4.0%-4.4%-8.4%
Q1 2021+4.2%+2.0%+5.6%
Q4 2020-9.3%-7.2%+0.6%
Q3 2020+5.5%+13.0%+32.1%
Q2 2020+7.4%+13.5%+25.7%
Q1 2020-2.6%-3.4%+13.2%
Q4 2019-0.2%+2.2%-18.0%
Q3 2019-0.1%+8.1%+7.2%
Q2 2019-10.9%-12.6%-17.1%
Q1 2019+5.4%+7.2%-8.2%
Q4 2018-3.5%-0.5%-2.0%
Q3 2018+1.5%+8.1%+5.9%
Q2 2018+1.2%+1.1%+6.3%
Q1 2018+6.3%+8.2%+10.6%
Q4 2017-9.7%-8.6%-4.0%
Q3 2017-5.4%-8.8%-8.8%
Q2 2017-6.5%-7.8%-11.1%
Q1 2017+1.1%-0.2%-4.4%
Q4 2016+2.6%+3.1%+1.2%
Q3 2016-5.6%-6.7%+13.3%
Q2 2016+3.2%+2.9%+5.4%
Q1 2016-1.5%
Q4 2015+14.9%
Q3 2015+7.9%
Q2 2015+1.0%
Q1 2015-3.8%
Q4 2014-6.2%
Q3 2014+0.7%
Q2 2014-4.3%
Q1 2014+2.9%
Q4 2013+3.3%
Q3 2013-14.6%
Q2 2013-5.5%
Q1 2013+1.0%
Q4 2012+2.7%
Q3 2012+2.5%
Q2 2012-0.3%
Q1 2012-0.2%
Q4 2011+1.6%
Q1 2010+1.6%
Q3 2011+8.7%
Q2 2011-8.9%
Q1 2011+1.6%
Q4 2010-7.6%
Q4 2008-7.6%
Q3 2009+6.0%
Q3 2010+6.0%
Q2 2009-0.5%
Q2 2010-0.5%
Q4 2009-0.5%

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