NYSE$TKR

The Timken Company · Q1 2023 earnings

Q1 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported record revenue and earnings per share for the first quarter of 2023 and raised full-year outlook.

Timken reported record first-quarter 2023 results with sales of $1.26 billion, up 12.3 percent from the same period a year ago. The company posted net income of $122.3 million or $1.67 per diluted share. Adjusted EPS was an all-time record at $2.09 per diluted share. The company raised its full-year outlook.

  • Record sales of $1.26 billion, up 12 percent in total and 11 percent organically from last year
  • Record first-quarter EPS of $1.67; with all-time record quarterly adjusted EPS of $2.09
  • Net income margin of 10 percent; adjusted EBITDA margin of 21 percent
  • Raises 2023 outlook; now expects 2023 EPS of $5.90-$6.40, with adjusted EPS of $7.00-$7.50

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.26B

Previous: $1.12B+12.3%
EPS (adj)

$2.09

Previous: $1.61+29.8%
Adjusted EBITDA Margin

21.0%

No prior period
Free Cash Flow

$122M

Previous: $118M+3.5%
Net Income

$122M

Previous: $118M+3.5%
Operating Income

$188M

Previous: $172M+8.9%
Gross Profit

$417M

Previous: $327M+27.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$331M

Previous: $425M-22.1%
Total Assets

$5.85B

Previous: $5.46B+7.2%
Stock-Based Comp

$11M

Previous: $7.1M+54.9%

Revenue & EPS history

Timken · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.26B

Q1 2023+12.3%vs Q1 2022
Beat estimate in 9 of 15 quarters(60%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Timken · $1.26B total across 2 segments · Q1 2023

  • Engineered Bearings
    $901M
  • Industrial Motion
    $362M

Forward guidance

Timken is increasing its 2023 outlook, with full-year earnings per diluted share now forecasted to be in the range of $5.90 to $6.40 and adjusted earnings per diluted share in the range of $7.00 to $7.50. The company is now planning for 2023 revenue to be up approximately 9.5 percent in total at the midpoint from 2022, an increase from its prior outlook of 6 percent growth at the midpoint.

Tailwinds

  • Strong first-quarter performance
  • Impact of the Nadella acquisition
  • Improved outlook for the rest of the year
  • Expect operating margins to increase in 2023, reflecting favorable price-cost
  • Expect better operational execution

Headwinds

  • Uncertainty remains elevated for the second half

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2023

Historical avgQ1 2023

-0.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.7%

Avg return

30 days after

50%

34 / 68 earnings

Positive

+14.9%

Q4 2015

Best reaction

-14.6%

Q3 2013

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.3%+7.0%+20.2%
Q4 2025+3.2%+13.3%+3.7%
Q3 2025+2.4%+0.9%+5.4%
Q1 2025-1.6%+1.7%+4.9%
Q4 2024+3.5%+3.3%-2.3%
Q3 2024-5.0%-7.8%-8.7%
Q2 2024-1.2%-5.4%-1.2%
Q1 2024+0.9%+3.2%-0.3%
Q4 2023-5.6%-3.9%-1.1%
Q3 2023+2.6%+3.6%+8.0%
Q2 2023-11.4%-13.1%-14.1%
Q1 2023-4.0%-1.6%+1.2%
Q4 2022-1.4%-3.2%+1.7%
Q3 2022+0.2%+4.0%+9.6%
Q2 2022+5.5%+2.5%+4.6%
Q1 2022+5.6%+2.4%+4.0%
Q4 2021-1.2%-1.7%-4.7%
Q3 2021+1.2%+2.5%-8.3%
Q2 2021-4.0%-4.4%-8.4%
Q1 2021+4.2%+2.0%+5.6%
Q4 2020-9.3%-7.2%+0.6%
Q3 2020+5.5%+13.0%+32.1%
Q2 2020+7.4%+13.5%+25.7%
Q1 2020-2.6%-3.4%+13.2%
Q4 2019-0.2%+2.2%-18.0%
Q3 2019-0.1%+8.1%+7.2%
Q2 2019-10.9%-12.6%-17.1%
Q1 2019+5.4%+7.2%-8.2%
Q4 2018-3.5%-0.5%-2.0%
Q3 2018+1.5%+8.1%+5.9%
Q2 2018+1.2%+1.1%+6.3%
Q1 2018+6.3%+8.2%+10.6%
Q4 2017-9.7%-8.6%-4.0%
Q3 2017-5.4%-8.8%-8.8%
Q2 2017-6.5%-7.8%-11.1%
Q1 2017+1.1%-0.2%-4.4%
Q4 2016+2.6%+3.1%+1.2%
Q3 2016-5.6%-6.7%+13.3%
Q2 2016+3.2%+2.9%+5.4%
Q1 2016-1.5%
Q4 2015+14.9%
Q3 2015+7.9%
Q2 2015+1.0%
Q1 2015-3.8%
Q4 2014-6.2%
Q3 2014+0.7%
Q2 2014-4.3%
Q1 2014+2.9%
Q4 2013+3.3%
Q3 2013-14.6%
Q2 2013-5.5%
Q1 2013+1.0%
Q4 2012+2.7%
Q3 2012+2.5%
Q2 2012-0.3%
Q1 2012-0.2%
Q4 2011+1.6%
Q1 2010+1.6%
Q3 2011+8.7%
Q2 2011-8.9%
Q1 2011+1.6%
Q4 2010-7.6%
Q4 2008-7.6%
Q3 2009+6.0%
Q3 2010+6.0%
Q2 2009-0.5%
Q2 2010-0.5%
Q4 2009-0.5%

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