NYSE$TKR

The Timken Company · Q4 2024 earnings

Q4 2024 earnings · · Before market open · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported fourth-quarter and full-year results, with sales of $1.07 billion, and diluted EPS of $1.01.

Timken reported fourth-quarter sales of $1.07 billion, a 1.6% decrease from the previous year. The company's diluted EPS was $1.01, with an adjusted EPS of $1.16. Net income for the quarter was $71.2 million. The company is planning for 2025 revenue in the range of -4% to -1% compared to 2024.

  • Sales of $1.07 billion in the fourth quarter, down 1.6 percent from last year.
  • Fourth-quarter diluted EPS of $1.01; adjusted EPS of $1.16.
  • Net cash provided by operations in the quarter was $178.5 million, and free cash flow was $124.9 million.
  • Company provides initial estimate for 2025 EPS of $4.30-$4.80, with adjusted EPS of $5.30-$5.80.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.07B

Previous: $1.09B-1.6%
EPS (adj)

$1.16

Previous: $1.37-15.3%
Net Income Margin

6.6%

No prior period
Adjusted EBITDA Margin

16.6%

Previous: 17.9%-7.3%
Engineered Bearings Adj. EBITDA Margin

17.2%

No prior period
Industrial Motion Adj. EBITDA Margin

19.3%

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$53.6M

Previous: -$52.9M-1.3%
Net Income

$71.2M

Previous: $58.7M+21.3%
Operating Income

$113M

Previous: $119M-5.2%
Gross Profit

$325M

Previous: $314M+3.6%

Revenue & EPS history

Timken · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.07B

Q4 2024-1.6%vs Q4 2023
Beat estimate in 9 of 15 quarters(60%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Timken · $1.14B total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Engineered Bearings
    $776M
  • Industrial Motion
    $367M

Forward guidance

The company is planning for 2025 revenue in the range of -4% to -1% in total compared to 2024 and setting an initial outlook for 2025 earnings per diluted share in the range of $4.30 to $4.80 and adjusted earnings per diluted share in the range of $5.30 to $5.80.

Tailwinds

  • Cost reduction actions are expected to generate gross savings of approximately $75 million in 2025.
  • Team is focused on operational excellence and other initiatives to deliver resilient performance in 2025.
  • Margins are expected to be supported by cost-reduction actions.
  • Planning to generate higher free cash flow with improved working capital performance.
  • Well positioned to capitalize on an industrial recovery when it occurs.

Headwinds

  • Continued economic uncertainty across the globe.
  • Planning for 2025 revenue in the range of -4% to -1% in total compared to 2024, including unfavorable foreign currency translation.
  • Global economic conditions to remain challenging to start the year.
  • CEO succession expenses
  • Impact of acquisitions

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2024

Historical avgQ4 2024

-0.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.7%

Avg return

30 days after

50%

34 / 68 earnings

Positive

+14.9%

Q4 2015

Best reaction

-14.6%

Q3 2013

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.3%+7.0%+20.2%
Q4 2025+3.2%+13.3%+3.7%
Q3 2025+2.4%+0.9%+5.4%
Q1 2025-1.6%+1.7%+4.9%
Q4 2024+3.5%+3.3%-2.3%
Q3 2024-5.0%-7.8%-8.7%
Q2 2024-1.2%-5.4%-1.2%
Q1 2024+0.9%+3.2%-0.3%
Q4 2023-5.6%-3.9%-1.1%
Q3 2023+2.6%+3.6%+8.0%
Q2 2023-11.4%-13.1%-14.1%
Q1 2023-4.0%-1.6%+1.2%
Q4 2022-1.4%-3.2%+1.7%
Q3 2022+0.2%+4.0%+9.6%
Q2 2022+5.5%+2.5%+4.6%
Q1 2022+5.6%+2.4%+4.0%
Q4 2021-1.2%-1.7%-4.7%
Q3 2021+1.2%+2.5%-8.3%
Q2 2021-4.0%-4.4%-8.4%
Q1 2021+4.2%+2.0%+5.6%
Q4 2020-9.3%-7.2%+0.6%
Q3 2020+5.5%+13.0%+32.1%
Q2 2020+7.4%+13.5%+25.7%
Q1 2020-2.6%-3.4%+13.2%
Q4 2019-0.2%+2.2%-18.0%
Q3 2019-0.1%+8.1%+7.2%
Q2 2019-10.9%-12.6%-17.1%
Q1 2019+5.4%+7.2%-8.2%
Q4 2018-3.5%-0.5%-2.0%
Q3 2018+1.5%+8.1%+5.9%
Q2 2018+1.2%+1.1%+6.3%
Q1 2018+6.3%+8.2%+10.6%
Q4 2017-9.7%-8.6%-4.0%
Q3 2017-5.4%-8.8%-8.8%
Q2 2017-6.5%-7.8%-11.1%
Q1 2017+1.1%-0.2%-4.4%
Q4 2016+2.6%+3.1%+1.2%
Q3 2016-5.6%-6.7%+13.3%
Q2 2016+3.2%+2.9%+5.4%
Q1 2016-1.5%
Q4 2015+14.9%
Q3 2015+7.9%
Q2 2015+1.0%
Q1 2015-3.8%
Q4 2014-6.2%
Q3 2014+0.7%
Q2 2014-4.3%
Q1 2014+2.9%
Q4 2013+3.3%
Q3 2013-14.6%
Q2 2013-5.5%
Q1 2013+1.0%
Q4 2012+2.7%
Q3 2012+2.5%
Q2 2012-0.3%
Q1 2012-0.2%
Q4 2011+1.6%
Q1 2010+1.6%
Q3 2011+8.7%
Q2 2011-8.9%
Q1 2011+1.6%
Q4 2010-7.6%
Q4 2008-7.6%
Q3 2009+6.0%
Q3 2010+6.0%
Q2 2009-0.5%
Q2 2010-0.5%
Q4 2009-0.5%

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