NYSE$TKR

The Timken Company · Q4 2019 earnings

Q4 2019 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Timken's fourth-quarter earnings were reported, revealing sales of $896 million and GAAP EPS of $1.48.

Timken reported fourth-quarter sales of $896 million, a 1.5% decrease year-over-year, and GAAP earnings per diluted share of $1.48. The company's performance was impacted by lower demand in the Mobile Industries segment and unfavorable currency, offset by acquisitions and positive pricing. Net income for the quarter was $113.5 million, and free cash flow was $137.6 million.

  • Fourth-quarter sales were $896 million, down 1.5 percent from last year.
  • Fourth-quarter earnings per diluted share were $1.48 on a GAAP basis, with adjusted EPS of $0.84.
  • Net cash from operations for the quarter was $195.3 million, and free cash flow was $137.6 million.
  • The company expects 2020 revenue to be in the range of down 2 percent to up 2 percent, or roughly flat at the midpoint, versus 2019.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$896M

Previous: $910M-1.5%
EPS (adj)

$0.84

Previous: $1.00-16.0%
Capital Expenditures

$141M

Previous: $113M+24.9%
Free Cash Flow

$138M

Previous: $24.9M+452.6%
Net Income

$118M

Previous: $60M+96.3%
Operating Income

$93.5M

Previous: $104M-10.4%
Gross Profit

$256M

Previous: $255M+0.6%
Cash & Equivalents

$210M

Previous: $133M+58.1%
Total Assets

$4.86B

Previous: $4.45B+9.3%
Stock-Based Comp

$6.4M

Previous: $6.8M-5.9%

Revenue & EPS history

Timken · Revenue · Quarterly

$896M

Q4 2019-1.5%vs Q4 2018
Beat estimate in 11 of 16 quarters(69%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Timken · $1.14B total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Engineered Bearings
    $776M
  • Industrial Motion
    $367M

Forward guidance

The company expects 2020 revenue to be in the range of down 2 percent to up 2 percent, or roughly flat at the midpoint, versus 2019. Timken anticipates 2020 earnings per diluted share to range from $4.00 to $4.40 for the full year on a GAAP basis, and adjusted earnings per diluted share ranging from $4.25 to $4.65.

Tailwinds

  • The company expects 2020 revenue to be in the range of down 2 percent to up 2 percent, or roughly flat at the midpoint, versus 2019.
  • Includes the benefit of acquisitions made during 2019.
  • Timken anticipates 2020 earnings per diluted share to range from $4.00 to $4.40 for the full year on a GAAP basis.
  • Excluding special items, the company expects 2020 adjusted earnings per diluted share ranging from $4.25 to $4.65.
  • Timken plans to generate net cash from operations of approximately $585 million and free cash flow of $425 million at the midpoint in 2020.

Headwinds

  • Expected organic declines in Mobile Industries.
  • Impact of currency.
  • Soft industrial economic backdrop.
  • Profitability to improve meaningfully from fourth-quarter levels.
  • Remain focused on driving outgrowth, integrating recent acquisitions and advancing our operational excellence initiatives.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2019

Historical avgQ4 2019

-0.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.7%

Avg return

30 days after

50%

34 / 68 earnings

Positive

+14.9%

Q4 2015

Best reaction

-14.6%

Q3 2013

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.3%+7.0%+20.2%
Q4 2025+3.2%+13.3%+3.7%
Q3 2025+2.4%+0.9%+5.4%
Q1 2025-1.6%+1.7%+4.9%
Q4 2024+3.5%+3.3%-2.3%
Q3 2024-5.0%-7.8%-8.7%
Q2 2024-1.2%-5.4%-1.2%
Q1 2024+0.9%+3.2%-0.3%
Q4 2023-5.6%-3.9%-1.1%
Q3 2023+2.6%+3.6%+8.0%
Q2 2023-11.4%-13.1%-14.1%
Q1 2023-4.0%-1.6%+1.2%
Q4 2022-1.4%-3.2%+1.7%
Q3 2022+0.2%+4.0%+9.6%
Q2 2022+5.5%+2.5%+4.6%
Q1 2022+5.6%+2.4%+4.0%
Q4 2021-1.2%-1.7%-4.7%
Q3 2021+1.2%+2.5%-8.3%
Q2 2021-4.0%-4.4%-8.4%
Q1 2021+4.2%+2.0%+5.6%
Q4 2020-9.3%-7.2%+0.6%
Q3 2020+5.5%+13.0%+32.1%
Q2 2020+7.4%+13.5%+25.7%
Q1 2020-2.6%-3.4%+13.2%
Q4 2019-0.2%+2.2%-18.0%
Q3 2019-0.1%+8.1%+7.2%
Q2 2019-10.9%-12.6%-17.1%
Q1 2019+5.4%+7.2%-8.2%
Q4 2018-3.5%-0.5%-2.0%
Q3 2018+1.5%+8.1%+5.9%
Q2 2018+1.2%+1.1%+6.3%
Q1 2018+6.3%+8.2%+10.6%
Q4 2017-9.7%-8.6%-4.0%
Q3 2017-5.4%-8.8%-8.8%
Q2 2017-6.5%-7.8%-11.1%
Q1 2017+1.1%-0.2%-4.4%
Q4 2016+2.6%+3.1%+1.2%
Q3 2016-5.6%-6.7%+13.3%
Q2 2016+3.2%+2.9%+5.4%
Q1 2016-1.5%
Q4 2015+14.9%
Q3 2015+7.9%
Q2 2015+1.0%
Q1 2015-3.8%
Q4 2014-6.2%
Q3 2014+0.7%
Q2 2014-4.3%
Q1 2014+2.9%
Q4 2013+3.3%
Q3 2013-14.6%
Q2 2013-5.5%
Q1 2013+1.0%
Q4 2012+2.7%
Q3 2012+2.5%
Q2 2012-0.3%
Q1 2012-0.2%
Q4 2011+1.6%
Q1 2010+1.6%
Q3 2011+8.7%
Q2 2011-8.9%
Q1 2011+1.6%
Q4 2010-7.6%
Q4 2008-7.6%
Q3 2009+6.0%
Q3 2010+6.0%
Q2 2009-0.5%
Q2 2010-0.5%
Q4 2009-0.5%

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