NYSE$TKR

The Timken Company · Q3 2023 earnings

Q3 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Timken posted solid results despite challenging business conditions, expanded adjusted EBITDA margins in both segments, and generated strong free cash flow.

Timken reported third-quarter 2023 sales of $1.14 billion, a 0.6 percent increase from the same period last year. The company posted net income of $87.9 million, or $1.23 per diluted share, compared to $87.0 million, or $1.18 per diluted share, for the same period a year ago. Adjusted EPS was $1.55, compared to $1.63 in 2022. Net cash from operations was $194.3 million, and free cash flow was $150.7 million.

  • Sales of $1.14 billion, up approximately 1 percent from last year
  • Third-quarter earnings per share of $1.23; adjusted EPS of $1.55
  • Strong cash from operations of $194 million; free cash flow of $151 million
  • Updated 2023 outlook; now expects 2023 EPS of $5.60-$5.70, with adjusted EPS of $6.85-$6.95

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.14B

Previous: $1.14B+0.6%
EPS (adj)

$1.55

Previous: $1.52+2.0%
Capital Expenditures

-$43.6M

No prior period
Free Cash Flow

$87.9M

Previous: $87M+1.0%
Net Income

$87.9M

Previous: $87M+1.0%
Operating Income

$150M

Previous: $132M+13.6%
Gross Profit

$356M

Previous: $323M+10.2%
Cash & Equivalents

$368M

Previous: $301M+22.3%
Total Assets

$6.24B

Previous: $5.28B+18.2%
Stock-Based Comp

$5.8M

Previous: $6.7M-13.4%

Revenue & EPS history

Timken · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.14B

Q3 2023+0.6%vs Q3 2022
Beat estimate in 9 of 15 quarters(60%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Timken · $1.14B total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Engineered Bearings
    $776M
  • Industrial Motion
    $367M

Forward guidance

Timken is updating its 2023 outlook, with full-year earnings per diluted share now forecasted to be in the range of $5.60 to $5.70 and adjusted earnings per diluted share in the range of $6.85 to $6.95. The company is now planning for 2023 revenue to be up 5 to 5.5 percent in total from 2022.

Headwinds

  • Softer end-market demand conditions
  • Expectation for continued channel inventory reductions in the fourth quarter

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2023

Historical avgQ3 2023

-0.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.7%

Avg return

30 days after

50%

34 / 68 earnings

Positive

+14.9%

Q4 2015

Best reaction

-14.6%

Q3 2013

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.3%+7.0%+20.2%
Q4 2025+3.2%+13.3%+3.7%
Q3 2025+2.4%+0.9%+5.4%
Q1 2025-1.6%+1.7%+4.9%
Q4 2024+3.5%+3.3%-2.3%
Q3 2024-5.0%-7.8%-8.7%
Q2 2024-1.2%-5.4%-1.2%
Q1 2024+0.9%+3.2%-0.3%
Q4 2023-5.6%-3.9%-1.1%
Q3 2023+2.6%+3.6%+8.0%
Q2 2023-11.4%-13.1%-14.1%
Q1 2023-4.0%-1.6%+1.2%
Q4 2022-1.4%-3.2%+1.7%
Q3 2022+0.2%+4.0%+9.6%
Q2 2022+5.5%+2.5%+4.6%
Q1 2022+5.6%+2.4%+4.0%
Q4 2021-1.2%-1.7%-4.7%
Q3 2021+1.2%+2.5%-8.3%
Q2 2021-4.0%-4.4%-8.4%
Q1 2021+4.2%+2.0%+5.6%
Q4 2020-9.3%-7.2%+0.6%
Q3 2020+5.5%+13.0%+32.1%
Q2 2020+7.4%+13.5%+25.7%
Q1 2020-2.6%-3.4%+13.2%
Q4 2019-0.2%+2.2%-18.0%
Q3 2019-0.1%+8.1%+7.2%
Q2 2019-10.9%-12.6%-17.1%
Q1 2019+5.4%+7.2%-8.2%
Q4 2018-3.5%-0.5%-2.0%
Q3 2018+1.5%+8.1%+5.9%
Q2 2018+1.2%+1.1%+6.3%
Q1 2018+6.3%+8.2%+10.6%
Q4 2017-9.7%-8.6%-4.0%
Q3 2017-5.4%-8.8%-8.8%
Q2 2017-6.5%-7.8%-11.1%
Q1 2017+1.1%-0.2%-4.4%
Q4 2016+2.6%+3.1%+1.2%
Q3 2016-5.6%-6.7%+13.3%
Q2 2016+3.2%+2.9%+5.4%
Q1 2016-1.5%
Q4 2015+14.9%
Q3 2015+7.9%
Q2 2015+1.0%
Q1 2015-3.8%
Q4 2014-6.2%
Q3 2014+0.7%
Q2 2014-4.3%
Q1 2014+2.9%
Q4 2013+3.3%
Q3 2013-14.6%
Q2 2013-5.5%
Q1 2013+1.0%
Q4 2012+2.7%
Q3 2012+2.5%
Q2 2012-0.3%
Q1 2012-0.2%
Q4 2011+1.6%
Q1 2010+1.6%
Q3 2011+8.7%
Q2 2011-8.9%
Q1 2011+1.6%
Q4 2010-7.6%
Q4 2008-7.6%
Q3 2009+6.0%
Q3 2010+6.0%
Q2 2009-0.5%
Q2 2010-0.5%
Q4 2009-0.5%

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