NYSE$LMND
Lemonade Inc. · Q4 2024 earnings
Q4 2024 earnings · · After market close · Investor relations
Briefing
Lemonade reported accelerating topline growth, expense stability, significantly narrowing Adj. EBITDA losses, and positive Adjusted Free Cash Flow in Q4 2024, marking its best quarter ever.
Lemonade achieved its best quarter ever in Q4 2024, driven by accelerating topline growth, stable expenses, and significantly reduced Adjusted EBITDA losses. The company reported strong positive Adjusted Free Cash Flow, marking its first full year of positive Adj. FCF.
- Delivered $27 million in Adjusted Free Cash Flow (Adj. FCF) in Q4 2024, contributing to a full year of positive Adj. FCF at $48 million.
- In Force Premium (IFP) grew 26% year-over-year to $944 million, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of accelerating growth.
- Achieved a gross loss ratio of 63% for the fourth quarter, the best result ever, with the trailing twelve months (TTM) gross loss ratio at 73%, within target range.
- Gross Profit increased 90% year-over-year to $64 million, with a margin expansion of 14 points to 43%, and FY 2024 gross profit nearly doubled to $167 million.
Headline financials
Revenue & EPS history
Lemonade · Revenue · Quarterly
$149M
Forward guidance
Lemonade expects continued IFP growth and sequential Adjusted EBITDA improvement in 2025, despite an anticipated increase in growth spend and the impact of CA wildfires, remaining on track for positive Adj. EBITDA by the end of 2026.
Tailwinds
- Guiding for a second consecutive year of positive Adjusted Free Cash Flow (Adj. FCF) in 2025.
- Anticipates IFP growth of 28% in 2025, with sustained acceleration towards a cruising velocity above 30% by 2026.
- TTM gross loss ratio is now within the target range, indicating improved underwriting precision.
- Plans to continue delivering operational efficiencies, demonstrating clear progress towards profitability.
- Remains on track to exit 2026 generating positive Adjusted EBITDA.
Headwinds
- Expected impact of CA wildfires on Q1 2025 results is approximately $45 million in gross losses.
- Estimated Adjusted EBITDA impact of approximately $20 million due to CA wildfires.
- Anticipates a ~40% increase in growth spend in 2025.
- The full reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA guidance to net loss cannot be provided without unreasonable efforts.
- The company's history of losses and the possibility of not achieving or maintaining profitability in the future.
Historical earnings impact
How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.
Avg. return before/after earnings
Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2024
+0.8%
Avg return
Earnings day
+3.7%
Avg return
5 days after
+10.5%
Avg return
30 days after
44%
11 / 25 earnings
Positive
+57.5%
Q3 2023
Best reaction
-25.2%
Q4 2023
Worst reaction
| Quarter | Report date | Reaction (Day 0) | +5 days | +30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | +3.7% | -13.6% | -11.5% | |
| Q4 2025 | -6.1% | -20.6% | -2.4% | |
| Q3 2025 | +34.3% | +34.5% | +34.6% | |
| Q1 2025 | +0.8% | +3.6% | +19.2% | |
| Q4 2024 | +12.6% | +18.5% | +3.1% | |
| Q3 2024 | +28.8% | +33.6% | +176.3% | |
| Q2 2024 | -23.6% | -26.6% | -18.1% | |
| Q1 2024 | +3.0% | +4.1% | -4.2% | |
| Q4 2023 | -25.2% | -20.6% | -24.4% | |
| Q3 2023 | +57.5% | +53.1% | +66.4% | |
| Q2 2023 | -22.4% | -26.8% | -36.3% | |
| Q1 2023 | +32.0% | +47.8% | +64.1% | |
| Q4 2022 | -2.9% | -0.7% | -21.1% | |
| Q3 2022 | +11.2% | +13.7% | -7.3% | |
| Q2 2022 | +14.1% | +27.5% | -3.2% | |
| Q1 2022 | -6.7% | +13.7% | +3.5% | |
| Q4 2021 | +2.3% | +5.8% | +12.7% | |
| Q3 2021 | -10.8% | -9.3% | -34.0% | |
| Q2 2021 | -10.0% | -7.6% | -14.0% | |
| Q1 2021 | -12.4% | -1.9% | +43.8% | |
| Q1 2020 | -12.4% | -1.9% | +43.8% | |
| Q4 2020 | -22.2% | -29.8% | -27.8% | |
| Q3 2020 | -15.0% | -1.0% | +38.9% | |
| Q2 2020 | -5.6% | -2.0% | -20.1% | |
| Q4 2019 | -5.6% | -2.0% | -20.1% | |
| Q3 2019 | — | — | — | |
| Q2 2019 | — | — | — | |
| Q4 2018 | — | — | — | |
| Q3 2018 | — | — | — | |
| Q2 2018 | — | — | — |
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