NYSE$LMND

Lemonade Inc. · Q4 2021 earnings

Q4 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Lemonade's Q4 2021 performance highlighted by revenue growth and strategic advancements.

Lemonade reported a strong Q4 2021 with a 100% increase in revenue compared to Q4 2020. The company expanded its product offerings and customer base, while also making strides in technology and strategic acquisitions. Despite the growth, the company experienced a higher gross loss ratio and a net loss for the quarter.

  • Revenue increased by 100% compared to Q4 2020.
  • Customer count increased by 43% compared to Q4 2020.
  • Gross loss ratio was 96%, up from 73% a year ago.
  • Lemonade Car saw a strong start in Illinois, with about 3/4 of customers bundling it with another policy.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$41M

Previous: $20.5M+100.0%
EPS (adj)

-$1.14

Previous: -$0.60-90.0%
In-Force Premium

$380M

Previous: $213M+78.5%
Customers

1.4M

Previous: 1.0M+42.6%
Premium per Customer

$266.00

Previous: $213.00+24.9%
Gross Earned Premium

$89.3M

Previous: $50M+78.6%
Annual Dollar Retention

82.0%

No prior period
Gross Loss Ratio

96.0%

Previous: 73.0%+31.5%
Net Loss Ratio

98.0%

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$2M

Previous: $1.3M+53.8%
Free Cash Flow

-$51.9M

Previous: -$22M-135.9%
Net Income

-$70.3M

Previous: -$33.9M-107.4%
Operating Income

-$68.4M

No prior period
Gross Profit

$7.8M

Previous: $7.5M+4.0%
Cash & Equivalents

$271M

Previous: $578M-53.2%
Total Assets

$1.51B

Previous: $829M+82.3%
Stock-Based Comp

$13.4M

Previous: $3.3M+306.1%

Revenue & EPS history

Lemonade · Revenue · Quarterly

$41M

Q4 2021+100%vs Q4 2020
Beat estimate in 10 of 10 quarters(100%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Lemonade provided guidance for Q1 2022, excluding the impact of the Metromile acquisition. They anticipate continued growth in in force premium, gross earned premium and revenue. The company also expects an adjusted EBITDA loss and provides estimates for stock-based compensation and capital expenditures.

Tailwinds

  • In force premium at March 31 of $405 - $410 million
  • Gross earned premium of $92 - $94 million
  • Revenue of $41 - $43 million

Headwinds

  • Adjusted EBITDA loss of $(70) - $(65) million
  • Stock-based compensation expense of approximately $20 million
  • Capital expenditures of approximately $2 million
  • Full reconciliation of adjusted EBITDA guidance to net loss cannot be provided without unreasonable efforts
  • Guidance excludes the impact of Metromile transaction

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2021

Historical avgQ4 2021

+0.8%

Avg return

Earnings day

+3.7%

Avg return

5 days after

+10.5%

Avg return

30 days after

44%

11 / 25 earnings

Positive

+57.5%

Q3 2023

Best reaction

-25.2%

Q4 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+3.7%-13.6%-11.5%
Q4 2025-6.1%-20.6%-2.4%
Q3 2025+34.3%+34.5%+34.6%
Q1 2025+0.8%+3.6%+19.2%
Q4 2024+12.6%+18.5%+3.1%
Q3 2024+28.8%+33.6%+176.3%
Q2 2024-23.6%-26.6%-18.1%
Q1 2024+3.0%+4.1%-4.2%
Q4 2023-25.2%-20.6%-24.4%
Q3 2023+57.5%+53.1%+66.4%
Q2 2023-22.4%-26.8%-36.3%
Q1 2023+32.0%+47.8%+64.1%
Q4 2022-2.9%-0.7%-21.1%
Q3 2022+11.2%+13.7%-7.3%
Q2 2022+14.1%+27.5%-3.2%
Q1 2022-6.7%+13.7%+3.5%
Q4 2021+2.3%+5.8%+12.7%
Q3 2021-10.8%-9.3%-34.0%
Q2 2021-10.0%-7.6%-14.0%
Q1 2021-12.4%-1.9%+43.8%
Q1 2020-12.4%-1.9%+43.8%
Q4 2020-22.2%-29.8%-27.8%
Q3 2020-15.0%-1.0%+38.9%
Q2 2020-5.6%-2.0%-20.1%
Q4 2019-5.6%-2.0%-20.1%
Q3 2019
Q2 2019
Q4 2018
Q3 2018
Q2 2018

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