NYSE$LMND

Lemonade Inc. · Q3 2023 earnings

Q3 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Lemonade's Q3 2023 performance showed strong growth in in-force premium and gross profit, alongside improvements in gross loss ratio and adjusted EBITDA loss.

Lemonade reported strong Q3 2023 results with in-force premium growing by 18%, gross profit increasing by 170%, and gross loss ratio improving by 11 percentage points. The company's adjusted EBITDA loss also improved by 39%, and they anticipate being cash-flow positive in late 2025.

  • In-force premium grew 18% year-over-year, reaching $719 million.
  • Gross loss ratio improved by 11 percentage points, landing at 83%.
  • Gross profit was up 170% year-over-year, totaling $22 million.
  • Adjusted EBITDA loss improved by 39% year-over-year, amounting to a $40 million loss.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$115M

Previous: $74M+54.7%
EPS (adj)

-$0.88

Previous: -$1.37+35.8%
In-Force Premium

$719M

Previous: $609M+18.0%
Customers

2.0M

Previous: 1.8M+11.7%
Premium per Customer

$362.00

Previous: $343.00+5.5%
Gross Earned Premium

$173M

Previous: $136M+27.0%
Annual Dollar Retention

85.0%

Previous: 84.0%+1.2%
Gross Loss Ratio

83.0%

Previous: 94.0%-11.7%
Net Loss Ratio

88.0%

Previous: 105.0%-16.2%
Capital Expenditures

-$6.8M

Previous: -$7.5M+9.3%
Free Cash Flow

-$68.3M

Previous: -$98.9M+30.9%
Net Income

-$61.5M

Previous: -$91.4M+32.7%
Operating Income

$21.7M

Previous: -$36.9M+158.8%
Gross Profit

$115M

Previous: $74M+54.7%
Cash & Equivalents

$238M

Previous: $225M+5.8%
Total Assets

$1.31B

Previous: $1.71B-23.8%
Stock-Based Comp

$15.4M

Previous: $15.6M-1.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Lemonade · Revenue · Quarterly

$115M

Q3 2023+54.7%vs Q3 2022
Beat estimate in 14 of 15 quarters(93%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

For Q4 2023, Lemonade anticipates in force premium between $726 - $729 million, gross earned premium between $174 - $176 million, revenue between $107 - $109 million, and an adjusted EBITDA loss between ($44) - ($42) million.

Tailwinds

  • In force premium at December 31, 2023 of $726 - $729 million
  • Gross earned premium of $174 - $176 million
  • Revenue of $107 - $109 million

Headwinds

  • Adjusted EBITDA loss of ($44) - ($42) million
  • Stock-based compensation expense of approximately $16 million
  • Capital expenditures of approximately $3 million

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2023

Historical avgQ3 2023

+0.8%

Avg return

Earnings day

+3.7%

Avg return

5 days after

+10.5%

Avg return

30 days after

44%

11 / 25 earnings

Positive

+57.5%

Q3 2023

Best reaction

-25.2%

Q4 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+3.7%-13.6%-11.5%
Q4 2025-6.1%-20.6%-2.4%
Q3 2025+34.3%+34.5%+34.6%
Q1 2025+0.8%+3.6%+19.2%
Q4 2024+12.6%+18.5%+3.1%
Q3 2024+28.8%+33.6%+176.3%
Q2 2024-23.6%-26.6%-18.1%
Q1 2024+3.0%+4.1%-4.2%
Q4 2023-25.2%-20.6%-24.4%
Q3 2023+57.5%+53.1%+66.4%
Q2 2023-22.4%-26.8%-36.3%
Q1 2023+32.0%+47.8%+64.1%
Q4 2022-2.9%-0.7%-21.1%
Q3 2022+11.2%+13.7%-7.3%
Q2 2022+14.1%+27.5%-3.2%
Q1 2022-6.7%+13.7%+3.5%
Q4 2021+2.3%+5.8%+12.7%
Q3 2021-10.8%-9.3%-34.0%
Q2 2021-10.0%-7.6%-14.0%
Q1 2021-12.4%-1.9%+43.8%
Q1 2020-12.4%-1.9%+43.8%
Q4 2020-22.2%-29.8%-27.8%
Q3 2020-15.0%-1.0%+38.9%
Q2 2020-5.6%-2.0%-20.1%
Q4 2019-5.6%-2.0%-20.1%
Q3 2019
Q2 2019
Q4 2018
Q3 2018
Q2 2018

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