NYSE$LMND

Lemonade Inc. · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Lemonade experienced strong growth, improved loss ratios, and greater efficiencies.

Lemonade's Q4 2022 saw a 64% increase in in-force premium (IFP) to $625 million. The gross loss ratio improved to 89%, and the adjusted EBITDA loss contracted to $52 million. Net loss for the quarter was $64 million.

  • In force premium increased by 64% to $625 million.
  • Gross Loss Ratio was 89% for the quarter, down from 96% in Q4 2021.
  • Adjusted EBITDA Loss contracted to $52 million.
  • Net Loss for the period was $64 million, down from $91 million in the prior quarter.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$88.4M

Previous: $41M+115.6%
EPS (adj)

-$0.93

Previous: -$1.14+18.4%
In-Force Premium

$625M

Previous: $380M+64.5%
Customers

1.8M

Previous: 1.4M+26.6%
Premium per Customer

$346.00

Previous: $266.00+30.1%
Annual Dollar Retention

86.0%

Previous: 82.0%+4.9%
Gross Loss Ratio

89.0%

Previous: 96.0%-7.3%
Net Loss Ratio

97.0%

Previous: 98.0%-1.0%
Capital Expenditures

$2.6M

Previous: $2M+30.0%
Free Cash Flow

-$31.2M

Previous: -$51.9M+39.9%
Net Income

-$63.7M

Previous: -$70.3M+9.4%
Operating Income

-$68.1M

Previous: -$68.4M+0.4%
Gross Profit

$12.7M

Previous: $7.8M+62.8%
Cash & Equivalents

$287M

Previous: $271M+5.9%
Total Assets

$1.68B

Previous: $1.51B+11.4%
Stock-Based Comp

$15.7M

Previous: $13.4M+17.2%

Revenue & EPS history

Lemonade · Revenue · Quarterly

$88.4M

Q4 2022+115.6%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 14 of 15 quarters(93%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Lemonade provided guidance for Q1 2023 and full year 2023.

Tailwinds

  • In force premium at March 31 of $635 - $637 million
  • Gross earned premium of $148 - $150 million
  • Revenue of $87 - $89 million

Headwinds

  • Adjusted EBITDA loss of ($65) - ($63) million
  • Stock-based compensation expense of approximately $15 million
  • Capital expenditures of approximately $2 million
  • Weighted total common shares outstanding of approximately 70 million

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

+0.8%

Avg return

Earnings day

+3.7%

Avg return

5 days after

+10.5%

Avg return

30 days after

44%

11 / 25 earnings

Positive

+57.5%

Q3 2023

Best reaction

-25.2%

Q4 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+3.7%-13.6%-11.5%
Q4 2025-6.1%-20.6%-2.4%
Q3 2025+34.3%+34.5%+34.6%
Q1 2025+0.8%+3.6%+19.2%
Q4 2024+12.6%+18.5%+3.1%
Q3 2024+28.8%+33.6%+176.3%
Q2 2024-23.6%-26.6%-18.1%
Q1 2024+3.0%+4.1%-4.2%
Q4 2023-25.2%-20.6%-24.4%
Q3 2023+57.5%+53.1%+66.4%
Q2 2023-22.4%-26.8%-36.3%
Q1 2023+32.0%+47.8%+64.1%
Q4 2022-2.9%-0.7%-21.1%
Q3 2022+11.2%+13.7%-7.3%
Q2 2022+14.1%+27.5%-3.2%
Q1 2022-6.7%+13.7%+3.5%
Q4 2021+2.3%+5.8%+12.7%
Q3 2021-10.8%-9.3%-34.0%
Q2 2021-10.0%-7.6%-14.0%
Q1 2021-12.4%-1.9%+43.8%
Q1 2020-12.4%-1.9%+43.8%
Q4 2020-22.2%-29.8%-27.8%
Q3 2020-15.0%-1.0%+38.9%
Q2 2020-5.6%-2.0%-20.1%
Q4 2019-5.6%-2.0%-20.1%
Q3 2019
Q2 2019
Q4 2018
Q3 2018
Q2 2018

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