NYSE$LMND

Lemonade Inc. · Q2 2024 earnings

Q2 2024 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Lemonade's Q2 2024 results were marked by strong revenue growth, expense stability, and positive net cash flow.

Lemonade reported excellent second-quarter results, featuring robust topline growth, relative stability in expenses, and positive net cash flow. In Force Premium grew 22% YoY, while revenue grew 17%. Gross loss ratio improved to 79%, and gross profit increased by 155% year on year.

  • Lemonade was net cash flow positive in Q2 2024 and expects to remain so, with the exception of Q4 2024.
  • In Force Premium grew 22% year-over-year, reaching $839 million, while revenue increased by 17%.
  • Gross loss ratio improved to 79%, a 15-point improvement year-over-year.
  • Gross profit increased by 155% year-over-year, and the gross profit margin doubled to 25%.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$122M

Previous: $105M+16.6%
EPS

-$0.81

Previous: -$0.97+16.5%
In-Force Premium

$839M

Previous: $687M+22.2%
Customers

2.2M

Previous: 1.9M+13.7%
Premium per Customer

$387.00

Previous: $360.00+7.5%
Gross Earned Premium

$200M

Previous: $164M+22.0%
Annual Dollar Retention

88.0%

Previous: 87.0%+1.1%
Adjusted Gross Profit

$33.4M

No prior period
Adjusted EBITDA

-$43M

No prior period
Gross Profit Margin

25.0%

No prior period
Adjusted Gross Profit Margin

27.0%

No prior period
Adj GP to GEP Ratio

17.0%

No prior period
Gross Loss Ratio

79.0%

Previous: 94.0%-16.0%
Net Loss Ratio

79.0%

Previous: 99.0%-20.2%
Capital Expenditures

-$4M

Previous: -$4.6M+13.0%
Free Cash Flow

-$61.2M

Previous: -$71.8M+14.8%
Net Income

-$57.2M

Previous: -$67.2M+14.9%
Operating Income

$28.6M

Previous: $21.1M+35.5%
Gross Profit

$122M

Previous: $105M+16.6%
Stock-Based Comp

$15.4M

Previous: $14.8M+4.1%

Revenue & EPS history

Lemonade · Revenue · Quarterly

$122M

Q2 2024+16.6%vs Q2 2023
Beat estimate in 14 of 15 quarters(93%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Lemonade is reaffirming guidance for FY 2024 for all metrics. They expect familiar seasonal patterns to repeat in Q3 & Q4, with accelerating growth spend in Q3, expected to be 3x prior year amount, and lower loss ratios in Q4.

Tailwinds

  • In force premium at September 30, 2024 of $875 - $879 million (~22% growth YoY)
  • Gross earned premium of $208 - $210 million (~21% growth YoY)
  • Revenue of $124 - $126 million (~10% growth YoY)
  • Adjusted EBITDA loss of ($58) - ($56) million
  • In force premium at December 31, 2024 of $940 - $944 million (~26% growth YoY)

Headwinds

  • Adjusted EBITDA loss of ($155) - ($151) million
  • Stock-based compensation expense for the third quarter of approximately $17 million
  • Capital expenditures for the third quarter of approximately $3 million
  • Weighted total common shares outstanding for the third quarter is approximately 71 million shares
  • Seasonal cash flow patterns are expected to dip cash and investments balance by approximately 1-2% before consistently climbing

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2024

Historical avgQ2 2024

+0.8%

Avg return

Earnings day

+3.7%

Avg return

5 days after

+10.5%

Avg return

30 days after

44%

11 / 25 earnings

Positive

+57.5%

Q3 2023

Best reaction

-25.2%

Q4 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+3.7%-13.6%-11.5%
Q4 2025-6.1%-20.6%-2.4%
Q3 2025+34.3%+34.5%+34.6%
Q1 2025+0.8%+3.6%+19.2%
Q4 2024+12.6%+18.5%+3.1%
Q3 2024+28.8%+33.6%+176.3%
Q2 2024-23.6%-26.6%-18.1%
Q1 2024+3.0%+4.1%-4.2%
Q4 2023-25.2%-20.6%-24.4%
Q3 2023+57.5%+53.1%+66.4%
Q2 2023-22.4%-26.8%-36.3%
Q1 2023+32.0%+47.8%+64.1%
Q4 2022-2.9%-0.7%-21.1%
Q3 2022+11.2%+13.7%-7.3%
Q2 2022+14.1%+27.5%-3.2%
Q1 2022-6.7%+13.7%+3.5%
Q4 2021+2.3%+5.8%+12.7%
Q3 2021-10.8%-9.3%-34.0%
Q2 2021-10.0%-7.6%-14.0%
Q1 2021-12.4%-1.9%+43.8%
Q1 2020-12.4%-1.9%+43.8%
Q4 2020-22.2%-29.8%-27.8%
Q3 2020-15.0%-1.0%+38.9%
Q2 2020-5.6%-2.0%-20.1%
Q4 2019-5.6%-2.0%-20.1%
Q3 2019
Q2 2019
Q4 2018
Q3 2018
Q2 2018

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