NYSE$LMND

Lemonade Inc. · Q3 2022 earnings

Q3 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Lemonade reported strong Q3 2022 results, with top and bottom lines exceeding expectations, driven by 76% top line growth and in force premium of $609 million.

Lemonade reported a strong third quarter with revenue and adjusted EBITDA loss coming in better than expected. The company saw 76% top line growth, driven by an increase in customers and premium per customer. However, the gross loss ratio was negatively impacted by the acquisition of Metromile and Hurricane Ian. The company is reiterating its full-year topline guidance, expecting H2 performance to be as guided, despite a shift in allocation between quarters.

  • In Force Premium (IFP) increased by 76% to $609.2 million compared to Q3 2021.
  • Customer count increased by 30% to 1,775,824 compared to Q3 2021.
  • Premium per customer increased by 35% to $343 compared to Q3 2021.
  • Revenue increased by 107% to $74.0 million compared to Q3 2021.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$74M

Previous: $35.7M+107.3%
EPS (adj)

-$1.37

Previous: -$1.08-26.9%
In-Force Premium

$609M

Previous: $347M+75.7%
Customers

1.8M

Previous: 1.4M+30.2%
Premium per Customer

$343.00

Previous: $254.00+35.0%
Gross Earned Premium

$136M

Previous: $79.6M+71.4%
Annual Dollar Retention

84.0%

Previous: 82.0%+2.4%
Gross Loss Ratio

94.0%

Previous: 77.0%+22.1%
Net Loss Ratio

105.0%

Previous: 81.0%+29.6%
Capital Expenditures

-$7.5M

Previous: -$7.4M-1.4%
Free Cash Flow

-$98.9M

Previous: -$73.8M-34.0%
Net Income

-$91.4M

Previous: -$66.4M-37.7%
Operating Income

-$36.9M

Previous: -$46.7M+21.0%
Gross Profit

$74M

Previous: $35.7M+107.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$225M

Previous: $320M-29.6%
Total Assets

$1.71B

Previous: $1.52B+12.6%
Stock-Based Comp

$15.6M

Previous: $12.7M+22.8%

Revenue & EPS history

Lemonade · Revenue · Quarterly

$74M

Q3 2022+107.3%vs Q3 2021
Beat estimate in 14 of 15 quarters(93%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Lemonade provided guidance for Q4 2022, including the impact of the Metromile acquisition for the full quarter. They expect in force premium to be $612 - $615 million, gross earned premium to be $147 - $150 million, revenue to be $77 - $80 million, and adjusted EBITDA loss to be ($65) - ($62) million.

Tailwinds

  • In force premium at December 31, 2022 of $612 - $615 million
  • Gross earned premium of $147 - $150 million
  • Revenue of $77 - $80 million
  • Adjusted EBITDA loss of ($65) - ($62) million
  • Stock-based compensation expense of approximately $16 million

Headwinds

  • Adjusted EBITDA loss is expected to be between ($65) - ($62) million
  • Stock-based compensation expense of approximately $16 million is expected
  • Capital expenditures of approximately $3 million are expected
  • Gross loss ratio was negatively impacted by the acquisition of Metromile
  • Gross loss ratio was negatively impacted by Hurricane Ian

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2022

Historical avgQ3 2022

+0.8%

Avg return

Earnings day

+3.7%

Avg return

5 days after

+10.5%

Avg return

30 days after

44%

11 / 25 earnings

Positive

+57.5%

Q3 2023

Best reaction

-25.2%

Q4 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+3.7%-13.6%-11.5%
Q4 2025-6.1%-20.6%-2.4%
Q3 2025+34.3%+34.5%+34.6%
Q1 2025+0.8%+3.6%+19.2%
Q4 2024+12.6%+18.5%+3.1%
Q3 2024+28.8%+33.6%+176.3%
Q2 2024-23.6%-26.6%-18.1%
Q1 2024+3.0%+4.1%-4.2%
Q4 2023-25.2%-20.6%-24.4%
Q3 2023+57.5%+53.1%+66.4%
Q2 2023-22.4%-26.8%-36.3%
Q1 2023+32.0%+47.8%+64.1%
Q4 2022-2.9%-0.7%-21.1%
Q3 2022+11.2%+13.7%-7.3%
Q2 2022+14.1%+27.5%-3.2%
Q1 2022-6.7%+13.7%+3.5%
Q4 2021+2.3%+5.8%+12.7%
Q3 2021-10.8%-9.3%-34.0%
Q2 2021-10.0%-7.6%-14.0%
Q1 2021-12.4%-1.9%+43.8%
Q1 2020-12.4%-1.9%+43.8%
Q4 2020-22.2%-29.8%-27.8%
Q3 2020-15.0%-1.0%+38.9%
Q2 2020-5.6%-2.0%-20.1%
Q4 2019-5.6%-2.0%-20.1%
Q3 2019
Q2 2019
Q4 2018
Q3 2018
Q2 2018

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