NYSE$LMND

Lemonade Inc. · Q2 2023 earnings

Q2 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Lemonade's Q2 2023 performance exceeded expectations with strong top and bottom lines, highlighted by strategic reinsurance and growth financing initiatives that significantly improved capital efficiency.

Lemonade reported better than expected top and bottom lines in Q2 2023. In-force premium grew by 50% year-over-year, and the company renewed its reinsurance program. The company also secured customer acquisition cost (CAC) financing. Adjusted EBITDA loss came in better than expected, despite heightened CAT losses. Net loss for the quarter was $67 million.

  • In-force premium (IFP) grew by 50% year-over-year, reaching $687 million.
  • The 55% quota share reinsurance program was renewed and oversubscribed.
  • Customer acquisition cost (CAC) financing was secured to enhance cash-friendly scaling.
  • California approved a 30% increase in homeowners rates and a 23% increase for Lemonade Pet.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$105M

Previous: $50M+109.2%
EPS (adj)

-$0.97

Previous: -$1.10+11.8%
In-Force Premium

$687M

Previous: $458M+50.0%
Customers

1.9M

Previous: 1.6M+20.7%
Premium per Customer

$360.00

Previous: $290.00+24.1%
Gross Earned Premium

$164M

Previous: $107M+53.5%
Annual Dollar Retention

87.0%

Previous: 83.0%+4.8%
Gross Loss Ratio

94.0%

Previous: 86.0%+9.3%
Net Loss Ratio

99.0%

Previous: 90.0%+10.0%
Capital Expenditures

-$4.6M

Previous: -$4.6M+0.0%
Free Cash Flow

-$71.8M

Previous: -$72.5M+1.0%
Net Income

-$67.2M

Previous: -$67.9M+1.0%
Operating Income

$21.1M

Previous: -$33.9M+162.2%
Gross Profit

$105M

Previous: $50M+109.2%
Cash & Equivalents

$194M

Previous: $200M-2.9%
Total Assets

$1.61B

Previous: $1.46B+10.4%
Stock-Based Comp

$14.8M

Previous: $13.9M+6.5%

Revenue & EPS history

Lemonade · Revenue · Quarterly

$105M

Q2 2023+109.2%vs Q2 2022
Beat estimate in 14 of 15 quarters(93%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Lemonade is modestly raising its guidance for the second half of 2023, focusing on continued improvements and automation to set up for more growth in 2024.

Tailwinds

  • Faster rate filings and more approvals bode well.
  • Slowing inflation is expected to positively impact results.
  • Synthetic Agents and reinsurance are in place, strengthening the capital structure.
  • H2 should bring a growing top line and an improving bottom line.
  • Continued improvements: more automation, more 'earning in', more filings.

Headwinds

  • The company won't accelerate growth until the loss ratio for new cohorts is in line with targets.
  • More rates need to come online before accelerated growth can occur.
  • Improvements will take several quarters to fully register on the book.
  • The team is conducting a thorough review of the homeowners business book based on multiple factors.
  • Actions like non-renewing policies slow the upward trend of metrics like Annual Dollar Retention rate (ADR) and Premium per Customer.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2023

Historical avgQ2 2023

+0.8%

Avg return

Earnings day

+3.7%

Avg return

5 days after

+10.5%

Avg return

30 days after

44%

11 / 25 earnings

Positive

+57.5%

Q3 2023

Best reaction

-25.2%

Q4 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+3.7%-13.6%-11.5%
Q4 2025-6.1%-20.6%-2.4%
Q3 2025+34.3%+34.5%+34.6%
Q1 2025+0.8%+3.6%+19.2%
Q4 2024+12.6%+18.5%+3.1%
Q3 2024+28.8%+33.6%+176.3%
Q2 2024-23.6%-26.6%-18.1%
Q1 2024+3.0%+4.1%-4.2%
Q4 2023-25.2%-20.6%-24.4%
Q3 2023+57.5%+53.1%+66.4%
Q2 2023-22.4%-26.8%-36.3%
Q1 2023+32.0%+47.8%+64.1%
Q4 2022-2.9%-0.7%-21.1%
Q3 2022+11.2%+13.7%-7.3%
Q2 2022+14.1%+27.5%-3.2%
Q1 2022-6.7%+13.7%+3.5%
Q4 2021+2.3%+5.8%+12.7%
Q3 2021-10.8%-9.3%-34.0%
Q2 2021-10.0%-7.6%-14.0%
Q1 2021-12.4%-1.9%+43.8%
Q1 2020-12.4%-1.9%+43.8%
Q4 2020-22.2%-29.8%-27.8%
Q3 2020-15.0%-1.0%+38.9%
Q2 2020-5.6%-2.0%-20.1%
Q4 2019-5.6%-2.0%-20.1%
Q3 2019
Q2 2019
Q4 2018
Q3 2018
Q2 2018

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