NYSE$LMND

Lemonade Inc. · Q2 2022 earnings

Q2 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Lemonade had a strong second quarter, exceeding expectations on both top and bottom lines. The company closed the Metromile acquisition and is working to integrate the team and technology.

Lemonade reported a strong second quarter with both top and bottom lines coming in ahead of expectations. The company's In Force Premium increased by 54% to $457.6 million and revenue increased by 77% to $50.0 million. The company is expecting losses to peak in Q3 2022 and for EBITDA to improve thereafter, through to profitability.

  • Second quarter was strong: Both top and bottom lines came in ahead of expectations.
  • Cross-Sells trended up: 23% of sales in Q2 were from cross-sells and upsells.
  • Loss Ratio trended down: Gross loss ratio improved 10% in two quarters.
  • Peak losses are expected this quarter (Q3 22), and EBITDA is expected to improve thereafter, through to profitability.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$50M

Previous: $28.2M+77.3%
EPS (adj)

-$1.10

Previous: -$0.90-22.2%
In-Force Premium

$458M

Previous: $297M+54.2%
Customers

1.6M

No prior period
Premium per Customer

$290.00

Previous: $246.00+17.9%
Gross Earned Premium

$107M

Previous: $66.9M+59.6%
Annual Dollar Retention

83.0%

Previous: 82.0%+1.2%
Gross Loss Ratio

86.0%

Previous: 74.0%+16.2%
Net Loss Ratio

90.0%

Previous: 80.0%+12.5%
Capital Expenditures

-$4.6M

Previous: -$4.7M+2.1%
Free Cash Flow

-$72.5M

Previous: -$60.3M-20.2%
Net Income

-$67.9M

Previous: -$55.6M-22.1%
Operating Income

-$33.9M

Previous: -$38.7M+12.4%
Gross Profit

$50M

Previous: $28.2M+77.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$200M

Previous: $1.2B-83.4%
Total Assets

$1.46B

Previous: $1.49B-1.8%
Stock-Based Comp

$13.9M

Previous: $11.9M+16.8%

Revenue & EPS history

Lemonade · Revenue · Quarterly

$50M

Q2 2022+77.3%vs Q2 2021
Beat estimate in 14 of 15 quarters(93%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

The acquisition of Metromile closed on July 28, and thus Lemonade's guidance for the remainder of the year includes the financial impact of Metromile for approximately 2/3 of the third quarter, and a full quarter impact in the fourth quarter.

Tailwinds

  • In force premium at September 30 of $595 - $600 million
  • Gross earned premium of $127 - $129 million
  • Revenue of $63 - $65 million
  • Stock-based compensation expense of approximately $16 million
  • Capital expenditures of approximately $3 million

Headwinds

  • Adjusted EBITDA loss of ($74) - ($69) million
  • In force premium at December 31 of $610 - $615 million
  • Gross earned premium of $476 - $480 million
  • Revenue of $236 - $239 million
  • Adjusted EBITDA loss of ($245) - ($240) million

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2022

Historical avgQ2 2022

+0.8%

Avg return

Earnings day

+3.7%

Avg return

5 days after

+10.5%

Avg return

30 days after

44%

11 / 25 earnings

Positive

+57.5%

Q3 2023

Best reaction

-25.2%

Q4 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+3.7%-13.6%-11.5%
Q4 2025-6.1%-20.6%-2.4%
Q3 2025+34.3%+34.5%+34.6%
Q1 2025+0.8%+3.6%+19.2%
Q4 2024+12.6%+18.5%+3.1%
Q3 2024+28.8%+33.6%+176.3%
Q2 2024-23.6%-26.6%-18.1%
Q1 2024+3.0%+4.1%-4.2%
Q4 2023-25.2%-20.6%-24.4%
Q3 2023+57.5%+53.1%+66.4%
Q2 2023-22.4%-26.8%-36.3%
Q1 2023+32.0%+47.8%+64.1%
Q4 2022-2.9%-0.7%-21.1%
Q3 2022+11.2%+13.7%-7.3%
Q2 2022+14.1%+27.5%-3.2%
Q1 2022-6.7%+13.7%+3.5%
Q4 2021+2.3%+5.8%+12.7%
Q3 2021-10.8%-9.3%-34.0%
Q2 2021-10.0%-7.6%-14.0%
Q1 2021-12.4%-1.9%+43.8%
Q1 2020-12.4%-1.9%+43.8%
Q4 2020-22.2%-29.8%-27.8%
Q3 2020-15.0%-1.0%+38.9%
Q2 2020-5.6%-2.0%-20.1%
Q4 2019-5.6%-2.0%-20.1%
Q3 2019
Q2 2019
Q4 2018
Q3 2018
Q2 2018

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