NYSE$LMND

Lemonade Inc. · Q1 2023 earnings

Q1 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Lemonade's Q1 2023 performance was strong, with key metrics moving in the right direction, despite persistent inflation and severe weather events.

Lemonade had a strong first quarter in 2023 with In Force Premium increasing by 56% year-over-year to $653 million, gross loss ratio decreasing to 87%, and annual dollar retention hitting a new all-time high of 87%. The company's net loss improved by 12% year-over-year to $66 million and adjusted EBITDA improved by 11% to ($51) million.

  • In Force Premium increased by 56% year-over-year.
  • Gross loss ratio decreased from 89% in Q4 2022 to 87%.
  • Annual Dollar Retention hit a new all-time-high of 87%.
  • Net Loss improved by 12% year-over-year.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$95.2M

Previous: $44.3M+114.9%
EPS (adj)

-$0.95

Previous: -$1.21+21.5%
In-Force Premium

$653M

Previous: $419M+55.9%
Customers

1.9M

Previous: 1.5M+23.4%
Premium per Customer

$352.00

Previous: $279.00+26.2%
Gross Earned Premium

$154M

Previous: $96M+60.6%
Annual Dollar Retention

87.0%

Previous: 82.0%+6.1%
Gross Loss Ratio

87.0%

Previous: 90.0%-3.3%
Net Loss Ratio

93.0%

Previous: 89.0%+4.5%
Capital Expenditures

-$2.7M

Previous: -$2.8M+3.6%
Free Cash Flow

-$68.5M

Previous: -$77.6M+11.7%
Net Income

-$65.8M

Previous: -$74.8M+12.0%
Operating Income

$10.2M

Previous: -$42.6M+123.9%
Gross Profit

$95.2M

Previous: $44.3M+114.9%
Cash & Equivalents

$255M

Previous: $235M+8.4%
Total Assets

$1.64B

Previous: $1.5B+9.7%
Stock-Based Comp

$15.4M

Previous: $14.1M+9.2%

Revenue & EPS history

Lemonade · Revenue · Quarterly

$95.2M

Q1 2023+114.9%vs Q1 2022
Beat estimate in 14 of 15 quarters(93%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

For Q2 2023, Lemonade anticipates IFP between $665M-$668M, Gross Earned Premium between $156M-$158M, Revenue between $96M-$98M, and Adjusted EBITDA loss between ($58M)-($55M). For the full year 2023, Lemonade anticipates IFP between $700M-$705M, Gross Earned Premium between $645M-$650M, Revenue between $392M-$396M, and Adjusted EBITDA loss between ($205M)-($200M).

Tailwinds

  • In force premium at June 30, 2023 of $665 - $668 million
  • Gross earned premium of $156 - $158 million
  • Revenue of $96 - $98 million
  • In force premium at December 31 of $700 - $705 million
  • Gross earned premium of $645 - $650 million

Headwinds

  • Adjusted EBITDA loss of ($58) - ($55) million
  • Stock-based compensation expense of approximately $15 million
  • Capital expenditures of approximately $3 million
  • Adjusted EBITDA loss of ($205) - ($200) million
  • Stock-based compensation expense of approximately $60 million

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2023

Historical avgQ1 2023

+0.8%

Avg return

Earnings day

+3.7%

Avg return

5 days after

+10.5%

Avg return

30 days after

44%

11 / 25 earnings

Positive

+57.5%

Q3 2023

Best reaction

-25.2%

Q4 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+3.7%-13.6%-11.5%
Q4 2025-6.1%-20.6%-2.4%
Q3 2025+34.3%+34.5%+34.6%
Q1 2025+0.8%+3.6%+19.2%
Q4 2024+12.6%+18.5%+3.1%
Q3 2024+28.8%+33.6%+176.3%
Q2 2024-23.6%-26.6%-18.1%
Q1 2024+3.0%+4.1%-4.2%
Q4 2023-25.2%-20.6%-24.4%
Q3 2023+57.5%+53.1%+66.4%
Q2 2023-22.4%-26.8%-36.3%
Q1 2023+32.0%+47.8%+64.1%
Q4 2022-2.9%-0.7%-21.1%
Q3 2022+11.2%+13.7%-7.3%
Q2 2022+14.1%+27.5%-3.2%
Q1 2022-6.7%+13.7%+3.5%
Q4 2021+2.3%+5.8%+12.7%
Q3 2021-10.8%-9.3%-34.0%
Q2 2021-10.0%-7.6%-14.0%
Q1 2021-12.4%-1.9%+43.8%
Q1 2020-12.4%-1.9%+43.8%
Q4 2020-22.2%-29.8%-27.8%
Q3 2020-15.0%-1.0%+38.9%
Q2 2020-5.6%-2.0%-20.1%
Q4 2019-5.6%-2.0%-20.1%
Q3 2019
Q2 2019
Q4 2018
Q3 2018
Q2 2018

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