NYSE$GRBK

Green Brick Partners Inc · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported record fourth quarter earnings driven by strong demand and efficient construction cycle times.

Green Brick Partners reported a strong fourth quarter in 2023, with record home deliveries and increased diluted EPS. The company's strategic focus on high-growth markets and efficient operations contributed to its success.

  • Delivered a record 825 homes, a 13.5% increase year-over-year.
  • Homebuilding gross margin was 31.4%, up 520 bps year-over-year.
  • Diluted EPS increased 33.9% year-over-year to $1.58 per share.
  • Net new home orders increased 60.5% year-over-year.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$450M

Previous: $431M+4.5%
EPS (adj)

$1.58

Previous: $1.18+33.9%
Net New Home Orders

679

Previous: 423+60.5%
Active Selling Communities

91

No prior period
Backlog Value

$555M

No prior period
New Homes Delivered

825

No prior period
Avg Sales Price Delivered

$544K

Previous: $590K-7.8%
Homebuilding Gross Margin

31.4%

Previous: 26.2%+19.8%
SG&A % of Residential Revenue

11.4%

No prior period
Homes Under Construction

2.1K

No prior period
Cancellation Rate

7.2%

Previous: 20.3%-64.5%
Absorption Rate

7.6

No prior period
Backlog Units

770

No prior period
Avg Sales Price Backlog

$721K

No prior period
Total Lots Owned/Contracted

28.7K

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$3.01M

Previous: $663K-554.4%
Net Income

$73M

Previous: $55.5M+31.5%
Operating Income

$102M

Previous: $78M+30.6%
Gross Profit

$142M

Previous: $112M+25.9%
Stock-Based Comp

$6.75M

Previous: $3.48M+94.2%

Revenue & EPS history

Green Brick · Revenue · Quarterly

$450M

Q4 2023+4.5%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 12 of 15 quarters(80%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Green Brick · $419M total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Residential Units
    $416M+4.8%
  • Land and Lots
    $3.06M-72.7%

Forward guidance

Green Brick Partners is well-positioned for continued growth and profitability, focusing on strategic markets and efficient operations. The company anticipates strong demand and is expanding into new markets like Houston.

Tailwinds

  • Favorable demographic shifts and strong employment in key markets.
  • Limited competition in infill and infill-adjacent locations.
  • Low leverage and cost of debt enabling retention of profits for growth.
  • Strategic advantages in key markets.
  • Scalability in the Houston market with the Trophy brand.

Headwinds

  • Changes in macroeconomic conditions, including increased interest rates and inflation.
  • Shortages, delays, or increased costs of raw materials and labor.
  • Inability to acquire land at anticipated prices or difficulty in obtaining land-use entitlements.
  • Failure to recruit, retain, or develop highly skilled employees.
  • Lack of availability or volatility of mortgage financing for homebuyers.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

+0.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

+2.2%

Avg return

5 days after

+3.9%

Avg return

30 days after

54%

34 / 63 earnings

Positive

+47.8%

Q3 2010

Best reaction

-26.5%

Q1 2011

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q4 2025+4.0%-3.5%-16.8%
Q3 2025+2.8%-1.6%+5.4%
Q1 2025+3.1%+1.9%+0.2%
Q4 2024+5.8%+2.4%-0.2%
Q3 2024-8.6%-7.1%-5.3%
Q2 2024-2.5%-7.4%+5.4%
Q1 2024+1.7%+4.2%+0.9%
Q4 2023-4.3%-9.4%+5.5%
Q3 2023+8.4%+17.3%+24.0%
Q2 2023-9.2%-6.8%-10.8%
Q1 2023+24.6%+36.3%+39.2%
Q4 2022+3.7%+9.7%+13.3%
Q3 2022-11.3%-14.0%+4.0%
Q2 2022+13.7%+8.2%-9.0%
Q1 2022+12.0%+6.7%+20.5%
Q4 2021+3.1%-1.8%-14.8%
Q3 2021-6.5%-2.6%+2.4%
Q2 2021-3.9%-0.9%-1.0%
Q1 2021-11.3%-6.4%-17.0%
Q4 2020+0.3%+8.0%+25.6%
Q3 2020+3.0%+13.7%+29.7%
Q2 2020+6.3%+3.2%+5.2%
Q1 2020+2.1%+3.8%+26.3%
Q4 2019-2.3%-9.6%-39.8%
Q3 2019+4.1%+13.5%+16.6%
Q2 2019+5.5%+4.5%+1.7%
Q1 2019+1.6%+2.6%-2.6%
Q4 2018-3.1%-2.8%+1.4%
Q3 2018-2.0%-7.2%-15.7%
Q2 2018+5.9%+11.2%+7.4%
Q1 2018+2.4%+5.7%+14.4%
Q4 2017-0.9%-3.8%+0.9%
Q3 2017-0.5%+2.8%+1.8%
Q2 2017-6.7%-11.1%-18.2%
Q1 2017+0.5%+6.4%+4.7%
Q4 2016+1.6%+4.9%+9.9%
Q3 2016+4.5%+10.3%+25.2%
Q2 2016+3.9%+3.3%+8.8%
Q1 2016-1.1%
Q4 2015+16.2%
Q3 2015-4.2%
Q2 2015+6.2%
Q1 2015+0.5%
Q4 2014+5.0%
Q3 2014+2.8%
Q2 2014+4.3%
Q1 2014-14.3%
Q4 2013-10.8%
Q3 2013+6.2%
Q2 2013-12.0%
Q1 2013-2.7%
Q4 2012-1.4%
Q3 2012-12.3%
Q2 2012-8.4%
Q1 2012-26.5%
Q1 2011-26.5%
Q4 2011+6.9%
Q3 2011+47.8%
Q3 2010+47.8%
Q2 2011-5.3%
Q4 2010-6.0%
Q2 2010-5.9%
Q1 2010-15.4%

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