NYSE$GRBK

Green Brick Partners Inc · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported record home closings revenue and gross profit for any Q4, and decreased debt to total capital.

Green Brick Partners reported a decrease in revenue and diluted earnings per share for the fourth quarter of 2022, but achieved record home closing revenue and gross profit for any fourth quarter. The company delivered 727 homes and saw a decrease in net new home orders, but experienced a sales momentum increase in December. They also lowered their debt-to-total-capital ratio to 25.7%.

  • Delivered 727 homes in Q4 2022.
  • Achieved record home closing revenue of $429 million for any Q4.
  • Total gross profit was $112 million, also the highest for any Q4.
  • Diluted earnings per share was $1.18, down 4.8% year-over-year.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$431M

Previous: $452M-4.7%
EPS (adj)

$1.18

Previous: $1.24-4.8%
Net New Home Orders

423

No prior period
Avg Sales Price Delivered

$590K

No prior period
Homebuilding Gross Margin

26.2%

Previous: 26.2%+0.0%
Cancellation Rate

20.3%

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$663K

Previous: $243K+172.8%
Free Cash Flow

$58.7M

Previous: $21.9M+168.2%
Net Income

$55.5M

Previous: $67.1M-17.2%
Operating Income

$78M

Previous: $82.6M-5.6%
Gross Profit

$112M

Previous: $111M+1.5%
Cash & Equivalents

$76.6M

Previous: $78.7M-2.7%
Total Assets

$1.66B

Previous: $1.42B+16.4%
Stock-Based Comp

$3.48M

Previous: $3.08M+13.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Green Brick · Revenue · Quarterly

$431M

Q4 2022-4.7%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 12 of 15 quarters(80%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Green Brick · $431M total across 2 segments · Q4 2022

  • Residential Units
    $430M+2.4%
  • Land and Lots
    $1.06M-96.7%

Forward guidance

Green Brick Partners expects pent-up demand to enhance sales if mortgage rates stabilize at less than 6% and anticipates having approximately 6,000 finished lots at the end of 2023, with roughly 75% in infill locations, positioning them to ramp up home construction quickly and increase active selling communities. The company believes they are well-positioned to take market share while maintaining industry-leading gross margins.

Tailwinds

  • Potential for enhanced sales with stabilized mortgage rates below 6%.
  • Approximately 6,000 finished lots expected by the end of 2023, with 75% in infill locations.
  • Capability to quickly ramp up home construction and increase active selling communities.
  • Well-positioned to take market share from other builders.
  • Intention to maintain industry-leading gross margins.

Headwinds

  • Changes in macroeconomic conditions, including increased interest rates and inflation.
  • General economic conditions, seasonality, cyclicality and competition in the homebuilding industry.
  • Shortages, delays or increased costs of raw materials and increased demand for materials.
  • A shortage of qualified and available labor.
  • Adverse changes in availability or volatility of mortgage financing.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

+0.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

+2.2%

Avg return

5 days after

+3.9%

Avg return

30 days after

54%

34 / 63 earnings

Positive

+47.8%

Q3 2010

Best reaction

-26.5%

Q1 2011

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q4 2025+4.0%-3.5%-16.8%
Q3 2025+2.8%-1.6%+5.4%
Q1 2025+3.1%+1.9%+0.2%
Q4 2024+5.8%+2.4%-0.2%
Q3 2024-8.6%-7.1%-5.3%
Q2 2024-2.5%-7.4%+5.4%
Q1 2024+1.7%+4.2%+0.9%
Q4 2023-4.3%-9.4%+5.5%
Q3 2023+8.4%+17.3%+24.0%
Q2 2023-9.2%-6.8%-10.8%
Q1 2023+24.6%+36.3%+39.2%
Q4 2022+3.7%+9.7%+13.3%
Q3 2022-11.3%-14.0%+4.0%
Q2 2022+13.7%+8.2%-9.0%
Q1 2022+12.0%+6.7%+20.5%
Q4 2021+3.1%-1.8%-14.8%
Q3 2021-6.5%-2.6%+2.4%
Q2 2021-3.9%-0.9%-1.0%
Q1 2021-11.3%-6.4%-17.0%
Q4 2020+0.3%+8.0%+25.6%
Q3 2020+3.0%+13.7%+29.7%
Q2 2020+6.3%+3.2%+5.2%
Q1 2020+2.1%+3.8%+26.3%
Q4 2019-2.3%-9.6%-39.8%
Q3 2019+4.1%+13.5%+16.6%
Q2 2019+5.5%+4.5%+1.7%
Q1 2019+1.6%+2.6%-2.6%
Q4 2018-3.1%-2.8%+1.4%
Q3 2018-2.0%-7.2%-15.7%
Q2 2018+5.9%+11.2%+7.4%
Q1 2018+2.4%+5.7%+14.4%
Q4 2017-0.9%-3.8%+0.9%
Q3 2017-0.5%+2.8%+1.8%
Q2 2017-6.7%-11.1%-18.2%
Q1 2017+0.5%+6.4%+4.7%
Q4 2016+1.6%+4.9%+9.9%
Q3 2016+4.5%+10.3%+25.2%
Q2 2016+3.9%+3.3%+8.8%
Q1 2016-1.1%
Q4 2015+16.2%
Q3 2015-4.2%
Q2 2015+6.2%
Q1 2015+0.5%
Q4 2014+5.0%
Q3 2014+2.8%
Q2 2014+4.3%
Q1 2014-14.3%
Q4 2013-10.8%
Q3 2013+6.2%
Q2 2013-12.0%
Q1 2013-2.7%
Q4 2012-1.4%
Q3 2012-12.3%
Q2 2012-8.4%
Q1 2012-26.5%
Q1 2011-26.5%
Q4 2011+6.9%
Q3 2011+47.8%
Q3 2010+47.8%
Q2 2011-5.3%
Q4 2010-6.0%
Q2 2010-5.9%
Q1 2010-15.4%

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