NYSE$GRBK

Green Brick Partners Inc · Q1 2020 earnings

Q1 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported record first quarter results with record basic EPS and increased homebuilding gross margin.

Green Brick Partners reported a strong first quarter with record EPS of $0.32, a 28% increase year-over-year, and a record backlog of $427.3 million, up 38.9% year-over-year. The company also saw a 42.3% increase in net new home orders and a 230 basis point improvement in homebuilding gross margin to 23.1%.

  • Achieved record EPS of $0.32, a 28.0% increase year-over-year.
  • Homebuilding gross margin improved by 230 basis points to 23.1%.
  • Net new home orders increased by 42.3%.
  • Record backlog reached $427.3 million, a 38.9% increase year-over-year.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$213M

Previous: $169M+26.5%
EPS (adj)

$0.31

Previous: $0.25+24.0%
Capital Expenditures

-$1.05M

Previous: -$571K-84.6%
Free Cash Flow

$14.9M

Previous: $12M+23.5%
Net Income

$15.9M

Previous: $12.6M+26.3%
Operating Income

$22.1M

Previous: $11.4M+94.2%
Gross Profit

$49M

Previous: $35.4M+38.5%
Cash & Equivalents

$106M

Previous: $23.9M+343.4%
Total Assets

$975M

Previous: $793M+23.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Green Brick · Revenue · Quarterly

$213M

Q1 2020+26.5%vs Q1 2019
Beat estimate in 12 of 16 quarters(75%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Green Brick · $213M total across 2 segments · Q1 2020

  • Residential Units
    $191M+18.3%
  • Land and Lots
    $22.1M+215.7%

Forward guidance

The company expects an adverse impact on net new sales to continue in the second quarter and beyond, consequently, closings, and therefore results of operations, for the balance of 2020 will be more impacted than the first quarter. The length and extent of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Company’s financial performance, including the ability to execute on our future financial results, will depend on future developments, including the duration and spread of the pandemic and related government restrictions, all of which are uncertain and cannot be predicted.

Tailwinds

  • Focused on completing and closing the record amount of sold homes in backlog that are under construction.
  • Temporarily limited the construction of unsold, speculative units to the next completion stage of construction.
  • Temporarily limited purchases of lots and land and development of land to reflect the lower levels of home sales orders that are anticipated for 2020.
  • Limited the number of new communities in which we had planned to open in 2020 based on an evaluation of competition and supply.
  • Taken steps to reduce overall headcount and selling, general and administrative expenses to align with anticipated activity in the upcoming quarters at an annualized estimated savings of $10.4 million.

Headwinds

  • Anticipates continued year-over-year deterioration in sales.
  • Expects an adverse impact on net new sales will continue in the second quarter and beyond.
  • Closings, and therefore results of operations, for the balance of 2020 will be more impacted than the first quarter.
  • The length and extent of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Company’s financial performance will depend on future developments.
  • The impact of governmental actions taken to combat the pandemic is uncertain and cannot be predicted.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2020

Historical avgQ1 2020

+0.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

+2.2%

Avg return

5 days after

+3.9%

Avg return

30 days after

54%

34 / 63 earnings

Positive

+47.8%

Q3 2010

Best reaction

-26.5%

Q1 2011

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q4 2025+4.0%-3.5%-16.8%
Q3 2025+2.8%-1.6%+5.4%
Q1 2025+3.1%+1.9%+0.2%
Q4 2024+5.8%+2.4%-0.2%
Q3 2024-8.6%-7.1%-5.3%
Q2 2024-2.5%-7.4%+5.4%
Q1 2024+1.7%+4.2%+0.9%
Q4 2023-4.3%-9.4%+5.5%
Q3 2023+8.4%+17.3%+24.0%
Q2 2023-9.2%-6.8%-10.8%
Q1 2023+24.6%+36.3%+39.2%
Q4 2022+3.7%+9.7%+13.3%
Q3 2022-11.3%-14.0%+4.0%
Q2 2022+13.7%+8.2%-9.0%
Q1 2022+12.0%+6.7%+20.5%
Q4 2021+3.1%-1.8%-14.8%
Q3 2021-6.5%-2.6%+2.4%
Q2 2021-3.9%-0.9%-1.0%
Q1 2021-11.3%-6.4%-17.0%
Q4 2020+0.3%+8.0%+25.6%
Q3 2020+3.0%+13.7%+29.7%
Q2 2020+6.3%+3.2%+5.2%
Q1 2020+2.1%+3.8%+26.3%
Q4 2019-2.3%-9.6%-39.8%
Q3 2019+4.1%+13.5%+16.6%
Q2 2019+5.5%+4.5%+1.7%
Q1 2019+1.6%+2.6%-2.6%
Q4 2018-3.1%-2.8%+1.4%
Q3 2018-2.0%-7.2%-15.7%
Q2 2018+5.9%+11.2%+7.4%
Q1 2018+2.4%+5.7%+14.4%
Q4 2017-0.9%-3.8%+0.9%
Q3 2017-0.5%+2.8%+1.8%
Q2 2017-6.7%-11.1%-18.2%
Q1 2017+0.5%+6.4%+4.7%
Q4 2016+1.6%+4.9%+9.9%
Q3 2016+4.5%+10.3%+25.2%
Q2 2016+3.9%+3.3%+8.8%
Q1 2016-1.1%
Q4 2015+16.2%
Q3 2015-4.2%
Q2 2015+6.2%
Q1 2015+0.5%
Q4 2014+5.0%
Q3 2014+2.8%
Q2 2014+4.3%
Q1 2014-14.3%
Q4 2013-10.8%
Q3 2013+6.2%
Q2 2013-12.0%
Q1 2013-2.7%
Q4 2012-1.4%
Q3 2012-12.3%
Q2 2012-8.4%
Q1 2012-26.5%
Q1 2011-26.5%
Q4 2011+6.9%
Q3 2011+47.8%
Q3 2010+47.8%
Q2 2011-5.3%
Q4 2010-6.0%
Q2 2010-5.9%
Q1 2010-15.4%

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