NYSE$FOR

Forestar Group Inc · Q4 2024 earnings

Q4 2024 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Forestar reported an increase in net income and revenues for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2024.

Forestar Group Inc. reported a strong fourth quarter with a 13% increase in net income to $81.6 million and revenues of $551.4 million. The company sold 5,374 lots during the quarter and ended the year with a lot position of 95,100 lots.

  • Net income increased 13% to $81.6 million, or $1.60 per diluted share.
  • Pre-tax income increased 14% to $108.5 million, with a pre-tax profit margin of 19.7%.
  • Revenues totaled $551.4 million on 5,374 lots sold.
  • The company's lot position at the end of the quarter was 95,100 lots.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$551M

Previous: $550M+0.3%
EPS (adj)

$1.51

Previous: $1.44+4.9%
Lots Sold

5.4K

Previous: 5.0K+7.8%
Avg Sales Price/Lot

$97.3K

Previous: $97.4K-0.1%
Total Lots Owned & Controlled

95.1K

No prior period
Owned Lots Under Contract

21.0K

No prior period
Owned Lots

57.8K

Previous: 52.4K+10.3%
Controlled Lots Under Contract

37.3K

No prior period
Owned Fully Developed Lots

6.3K

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$800K

Previous: $500K-260.0%
Net Income

$81.6M

Previous: $72.4M+12.7%
Operating Income

$109M

Previous: $95.4M+13.7%
Gross Profit

$132M

Previous: $116M+14.1%
Stock-Based Comp

$1.2M

Previous: $900K+33.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Forestar · Revenue · Quarterly

$551M

Q4 2024+0.3%vs Q4 2023
Beat estimate in 8 of 15 quarters(53%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Forestar · $550M total across 2 segments · Q4 2023

  • Residential Lot Sales
    $486M+39.8%
  • Tract Sales & Other
    $64.1M+131.4%

Forward guidance

Forestar expects to deliver between 16,000 and 16,500 lots, generating $1.6 billion to $1.65 billion of revenue.

Tailwinds

  • Strong balance sheet and ample liquidity provide flexibility to adapt to changing market conditions.
  • Company is uniquely positioned to take advantage of the shortage of finished lots in the homebuilding industry.
  • Disciplined approach to investing capital to enhance long-term value.
  • Focus on maximizing returns by balancing pace of sales and lot pricing.
  • Expect to continue aggregating significant market share over the next few years.

Headwinds

  • Effect of D.R. Horton’s controlling level of ownership.
  • Cyclical nature of the homebuilding and lot development industries.
  • Impact of significant inflation, higher interest rates or deflation.
  • Supply shortages and other risks of acquiring land, construction materials and skilled labor.
  • Impacts of weather conditions and natural disasters.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2024

Historical avgQ4 2024

+0.2%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+3.6%

Avg return

30 days after

49%

32 / 65 earnings

Positive

+17.9%

Q4 2017

Best reaction

-15.3%

Q3 2018

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q2 2026+0.4%+6.3%-1.3%
Q1 2026-4.6%-9.6%+8.2%
Q4 2025+6.6%-0.2%-1.0%
Q3 2025+0.6%+1.3%+1.8%
Q2 2025-0.6%+1.6%+6.2%
Q1 2025-10.1%-12.4%-14.0%
Q4 2024+0.9%-1.9%-5.6%
Q3 2024-14.8%-11.4%-18.6%
Q2 2024-7.5%-7.9%+2.4%
Q1 2024-8.7%-6.2%-6.9%
Q4 2023+14.9%+14.3%+20.3%
Q3 2023+13.1%+21.6%+19.9%
Q2 2023+10.4%+17.0%+31.7%
Q1 2023-9.7%-10.7%-15.6%
Q4 2022+15.9%+17.2%+32.0%
Q3 2022-6.2%-6.9%-11.6%
Q2 2022-3.5%-2.9%-6.1%
Q1 2022+8.8%+11.7%+1.9%
Q4 2021+3.2%+2.2%-2.5%
Q3 2021+12.4%+12.4%+5.3%
Q2 2021-1.1%-0.5%-9.8%
Q1 2021-1.1%-1.6%-3.2%
Q4 2020+5.6%+7.1%+12.5%
Q3 2020+2.7%+5.4%+9.1%
Q2 2020+0.9%+13.0%+24.0%
Q1 2020-0.4%-9.2%-2.3%
Q4 2019+3.2%+4.0%+4.9%
Q3 2019+3.0%+6.8%-5.2%
Q2 2019+0.8%+1.5%-2.6%
Q4 2018-0.4%+1.6%+7.6%
Q3 2018-15.3%-16.4%-20.3%
Q2 2018+1.1%+0.0%+5.5%
Q1 2018-2.2%-4.8%+2.8%
Q4 2017+17.9%+11.0%+6.7%
Q3 2017-4.8%-1.4%+27.0%
Q2 2017-0.9%-0.9%+0.3%
Q1 2017+0.0%+0.0%+14.9%
Q4 2016-1.5%-1.5%+2.6%
Q3 2016+3.5%+9.7%+19.8%
Q2 2016-2.0%-2.6%+2.5%
Q1 2016-5.9%
Q4 2015+10.0%
Q3 2015-5.8%
Q2 2015+3.0%
Q1 2015-5.8%
Q4 2014+8.3%
Q3 2014+0.5%
Q2 2014+0.0%
Q1 2014-5.9%
Q4 2013-0.5%
Q3 2013-6.3%
Q2 2013-4.9%
Q1 2013+5.0%
Q4 2012+3.7%
Q3 2012-10.0%
Q2 2012+4.0%
Q1 2011-1.1%
Q1 2012+2.3%
Q4 2009+5.4%
Q4 2011+5.4%
Q3 2010+3.5%
Q3 2011+3.5%
Q2 2010-9.2%
Q2 2011-9.2%
Q4 2010-9.2%

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