NYSE$FOR

Forestar Group Inc · Q1 2023 earnings

Q1 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported a decrease in net income and revenue due to moderating demand for new single-family housing and finished lots.

Forestar reported a decrease in net income and revenue for the first quarter of fiscal year 2023, with net income attributable to Forestar totaling $20.8 million and revenues of $216.7 million. The company's gross profit margin increased to 21.9%, and pre-tax profit margin was 12.9%.

  • Net income attributable to Forestar totaled $20.8 million or $0.42 per diluted share.
  • Consolidated revenues totaled $216.7 million on 2,263 lots sold.
  • Pre-tax income reached $27.9 million, resulting in a pre-tax profit margin of 12.9%.
  • The company had over $580 million of liquidity at quarter end.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$217M

Previous: $408M-46.8%
EPS (adj)

$0.42

Previous: $0.81-48.1%
Lots Sold

2.3K

Previous: 4.5K-49.9%
Avg Sales Price/Lot

$90.1K

Previous: $89K+1.2%
Capital Expenditures

-$100K

Previous: -$1.5M+93.3%
Free Cash Flow

$20.7M

Previous: $39M-46.9%
Net Income

$20.8M

Previous: $40.5M-48.6%
Operating Income

$26.2M

Previous: $52.4M-50.0%
Gross Profit

$47.5M

Previous: $73.4M-35.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$216M

Previous: $163M+33.2%
Total Assets

$2.34B

Previous: $2.16B+8.3%
Stock-Based Comp

$600K

Previous: $400K+50.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Forestar · Revenue · Quarterly

$217M

Q1 2023-46.8%vs Q1 2022
Beat estimate in 8 of 15 quarters(53%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Forestar · $210M total across 2 segments · Q1 2023

  • Residential Lot Sales
    $207M-48.8%
  • Tract Sales & Other
    $3.3M-5.7%

Forward guidance

While we are not providing annual guidance at this time due to uncertainty in the market, we expect to continue consolidating market share in the fragmented and under-capitalized U.S. residential lot development industry. Our strong balance sheet and ample liquidity provide us with significant financial and operational flexibility, and we plan to maintain our disciplined approach when investing capital to enhance the long-term value of Forestar.

Tailwinds

  • Ability to deliver strong profitability and returns through challenging market conditions.
  • Continue to strive to maximize returns by balancing our pace of sales and lot pricing.
  • Stay focused on strengthening our platform and increasing operational efficiencies to drive future growth.
  • Continue consolidating market share in the fragmented and under-capitalized U.S. residential lot development industry.
  • Maintain our disciplined approach when investing capital to enhance the long-term value of Forestar.

Headwinds

  • Uncertainty in the market makes it difficult to provide annual guidance.
  • Demand for new single-family housing and finished lots continuing to moderate.
  • Significant increase in mortgage interest rates.
  • Housing market is going through a period of transition.
  • Cannot control the macroeconomic backdrop or directly influence the demand for housing.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2023

Historical avgQ1 2023

+0.2%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+3.6%

Avg return

30 days after

49%

32 / 65 earnings

Positive

+17.9%

Q4 2017

Best reaction

-15.3%

Q3 2018

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q2 2026+0.4%+6.3%-1.3%
Q1 2026-4.6%-9.6%+8.2%
Q4 2025+6.6%-0.2%-1.0%
Q3 2025+0.6%+1.3%+1.8%
Q2 2025-0.6%+1.6%+6.2%
Q1 2025-10.1%-12.4%-14.0%
Q4 2024+0.9%-1.9%-5.6%
Q3 2024-14.8%-11.4%-18.6%
Q2 2024-7.5%-7.9%+2.4%
Q1 2024-8.7%-6.2%-6.9%
Q4 2023+14.9%+14.3%+20.3%
Q3 2023+13.1%+21.6%+19.9%
Q2 2023+10.4%+17.0%+31.7%
Q1 2023-9.7%-10.7%-15.6%
Q4 2022+15.9%+17.2%+32.0%
Q3 2022-6.2%-6.9%-11.6%
Q2 2022-3.5%-2.9%-6.1%
Q1 2022+8.8%+11.7%+1.9%
Q4 2021+3.2%+2.2%-2.5%
Q3 2021+12.4%+12.4%+5.3%
Q2 2021-1.1%-0.5%-9.8%
Q1 2021-1.1%-1.6%-3.2%
Q4 2020+5.6%+7.1%+12.5%
Q3 2020+2.7%+5.4%+9.1%
Q2 2020+0.9%+13.0%+24.0%
Q1 2020-0.4%-9.2%-2.3%
Q4 2019+3.2%+4.0%+4.9%
Q3 2019+3.0%+6.8%-5.2%
Q2 2019+0.8%+1.5%-2.6%
Q4 2018-0.4%+1.6%+7.6%
Q3 2018-15.3%-16.4%-20.3%
Q2 2018+1.1%+0.0%+5.5%
Q1 2018-2.2%-4.8%+2.8%
Q4 2017+17.9%+11.0%+6.7%
Q3 2017-4.8%-1.4%+27.0%
Q2 2017-0.9%-0.9%+0.3%
Q1 2017+0.0%+0.0%+14.9%
Q4 2016-1.5%-1.5%+2.6%
Q3 2016+3.5%+9.7%+19.8%
Q2 2016-2.0%-2.6%+2.5%
Q1 2016-5.9%
Q4 2015+10.0%
Q3 2015-5.8%
Q2 2015+3.0%
Q1 2015-5.8%
Q4 2014+8.3%
Q3 2014+0.5%
Q2 2014+0.0%
Q1 2014-5.9%
Q4 2013-0.5%
Q3 2013-6.3%
Q2 2013-4.9%
Q1 2013+5.0%
Q4 2012+3.7%
Q3 2012-10.0%
Q2 2012+4.0%
Q1 2011-1.1%
Q1 2012+2.3%
Q4 2009+5.4%
Q4 2011+5.4%
Q3 2010+3.5%
Q3 2011+3.5%
Q2 2010-9.2%
Q2 2011-9.2%
Q4 2010-9.2%

Discussion

Share your read of this quarter. Sign-in carries your eToro identity.

Join the conversation

Sign in with eToro to post your read of this quarter and vote on others'.

Sign in with eToro