NYSE$FOR

Forestar Group Inc · Q3 2022 earnings

Q3 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Forestar reported a strong third quarter with EPS increasing and significant pre-tax profit margin improvement.

Forestar Group Inc. reported financial results for the third fiscal quarter ended June 30, 2022. Net income attributable to Forestar increased 151% to $39.7 million, or $0.80 per diluted share. Revenues for the third quarter decreased 1% to $308.5 million.

  • Net income attributable to Forestar increased 151% to $39.7 million or $0.80 per diluted share
  • Pre-tax income increased 150% to $52.7 million, while pre-tax profit margin increased 1,040 basis points to 17.1%
  • Generated $308.5 million of revenues on 3,473 lots sold
  • Lots sold to customers other than D.R. Horton increased 213% to 435 lots

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$309M

Previous: $313M-1.4%
EPS (adj)

$0.80

Previous: $0.60+33.3%
Lots Sold

3.5K

Previous: 3.9K-10.0%
Total Lots Owned & Controlled

97.0K

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$3.2M

Previous: -$500K-540.0%
Free Cash Flow

$36.5M

Previous: $15.3M+138.6%
Net Income

$39.7M

Previous: $15.8M+151.3%
Operating Income

$52.5M

Previous: $38.9M+35.0%
Gross Profit

$73.9M

Previous: $55.8M+32.4%
Cash & Equivalents

$146M

Previous: $116M+26.1%
Total Assets

$2.27B

Previous: $2.02B+12.5%
Stock-Based Comp

$800K

Previous: $800K+0.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Forestar · Revenue · Quarterly

$309M

Q3 2022-1.4%vs Q3 2021
Beat estimate in 13 of 16 quarters(81%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Forestar · $5.5M total across 1 segment · Q3 2022

  • Tract Sales & Other
    $5.5M+0.0%

Forward guidance

Forestar is updating its guidance for fiscal 2022. They now expect their pre-tax profit margin for the full fiscal year to be approximately 14.25%. Additionally, they expect to deliver approximately 17,000 lots generating approximately $1.425 billion of revenue in fiscal 2022.

Tailwinds

  • Forestar's return-focused business model is centered on our high inventory turnover, low risk lot manufacturing strategy.
  • Our liquidity and balance sheet strength enables us to effectively operate through changing economic conditions and positions us to be opportunistic when attractive opportunities present themselves.
  • We expect continued profitable growth in the coming years, supported by our low net leverage
  • We expect continued profitable growth supported by the engagement of our people
  • We expect continued profitable growth supported by our strategic relationship with D.R. Horton and 97,000 lots owned and controlled at June 30, 2022.

Headwinds

  • Based on our fiscal year-to-date results and current market conditions, including development delays and moderation in housing demand, we are updating our guidance for fiscal 2022.
  • We now expect our pre-tax profit margin for the full fiscal year to be approximately 14.25% compared to our prior guidance of 14.0% to 14.5%.
  • We expect to deliver approximately 17,000 lots generating approximately $1.425 billion of revenue in fiscal 2022, compared to our prior guidance of between 19,500 and 20,000 lots generating approximately $1.7 billion of revenue.
  • Development delays
  • Moderation in housing demand

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2022

Historical avgQ3 2022

+0.2%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+3.6%

Avg return

30 days after

49%

32 / 65 earnings

Positive

+17.9%

Q4 2017

Best reaction

-15.3%

Q3 2018

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q2 2026+0.4%+6.3%-1.3%
Q1 2026-4.6%-9.6%+8.2%
Q4 2025+6.6%-0.2%-1.0%
Q3 2025+0.6%+1.3%+1.8%
Q2 2025-0.6%+1.6%+6.2%
Q1 2025-10.1%-12.4%-14.0%
Q4 2024+0.9%-1.9%-5.6%
Q3 2024-14.8%-11.4%-18.6%
Q2 2024-7.5%-7.9%+2.4%
Q1 2024-8.7%-6.2%-6.9%
Q4 2023+14.9%+14.3%+20.3%
Q3 2023+13.1%+21.6%+19.9%
Q2 2023+10.4%+17.0%+31.7%
Q1 2023-9.7%-10.7%-15.6%
Q4 2022+15.9%+17.2%+32.0%
Q3 2022-6.2%-6.9%-11.6%
Q2 2022-3.5%-2.9%-6.1%
Q1 2022+8.8%+11.7%+1.9%
Q4 2021+3.2%+2.2%-2.5%
Q3 2021+12.4%+12.4%+5.3%
Q2 2021-1.1%-0.5%-9.8%
Q1 2021-1.1%-1.6%-3.2%
Q4 2020+5.6%+7.1%+12.5%
Q3 2020+2.7%+5.4%+9.1%
Q2 2020+0.9%+13.0%+24.0%
Q1 2020-0.4%-9.2%-2.3%
Q4 2019+3.2%+4.0%+4.9%
Q3 2019+3.0%+6.8%-5.2%
Q2 2019+0.8%+1.5%-2.6%
Q4 2018-0.4%+1.6%+7.6%
Q3 2018-15.3%-16.4%-20.3%
Q2 2018+1.1%+0.0%+5.5%
Q1 2018-2.2%-4.8%+2.8%
Q4 2017+17.9%+11.0%+6.7%
Q3 2017-4.8%-1.4%+27.0%
Q2 2017-0.9%-0.9%+0.3%
Q1 2017+0.0%+0.0%+14.9%
Q4 2016-1.5%-1.5%+2.6%
Q3 2016+3.5%+9.7%+19.8%
Q2 2016-2.0%-2.6%+2.5%
Q1 2016-5.9%
Q4 2015+10.0%
Q3 2015-5.8%
Q2 2015+3.0%
Q1 2015-5.8%
Q4 2014+8.3%
Q3 2014+0.5%
Q2 2014+0.0%
Q1 2014-5.9%
Q4 2013-0.5%
Q3 2013-6.3%
Q2 2013-4.9%
Q1 2013+5.0%
Q4 2012+3.7%
Q3 2012-10.0%
Q2 2012+4.0%
Q1 2011-1.1%
Q1 2012+2.3%
Q4 2009+5.4%
Q4 2011+5.4%
Q3 2010+3.5%
Q3 2011+3.5%
Q2 2010-9.2%
Q2 2011-9.2%
Q4 2010-9.2%

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