NYSE$FOR

Forestar Group Inc · Q4 2021 earnings

Q4 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Forestar experienced significant gains in volume and improved pre-tax profit margins.

Forestar reported a record quarter and fiscal year, with net income attributable to Forestar increasing 82% to $44.0 million, or $0.89 per diluted share, revenues increasing 20% to $418.7 million, and residential lots sold increasing 23% to 4,902 lots compared to the prior year period.

  • Net income attributable to Forestar increased 82% to $44.0 million or $0.89 per diluted share.
  • Pre-tax income increased 84% to $58.8 million, while pre-tax profit margin increased 480 basis points to 14.0%.
  • Revenues increased 20% to $418.7 million.
  • Residential lots sold increased 23% to 4,902 lots.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$419M

Previous: $348M+20.5%
EPS (adj)

$0.85

Previous: $0.50+70.0%
Lots Sold

4.9K

No prior period
Avg Sales Price/Lot

$81.6K

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$1.1M

No prior period
Free Cash Flow

$36.4M

Previous: $374M-90.3%
Net Income

$44M

Previous: $24.2M+81.8%
Operating Income

$58.8M

No prior period
Gross Profit

$75.9M

Previous: $44.2M+71.7%
Cash & Equivalents

$154M

Previous: $394M-61.0%
Total Assets

$2.1B

Previous: $1.74B+20.8%
Stock-Based Comp

$600K

Previous: $400K+50.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Forestar · Revenue · Quarterly

$419M

Q4 2021+20.5%vs Q4 2020
Beat estimate in 13 of 15 quarters(87%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Forestar · $419M total across 2 segments · Q4 2021

  • Residential Lot Sales
    $399M
  • Tract Sales & Other
    $20.1M

Forward guidance

Forestar expects to deliver between 19,000 and 19,500 lots in fiscal 2022 and robust growth with increasing pre-tax profitability in the coming years.

Tailwinds

  • Housing market conditions remain favorable across the country.
  • Forestar is consolidating market share in the fragmented and under-capitalized U.S. lot development industry.
  • The Forestar team achieved a strong fiscal 2021 with over 15,900 lot deliveries.
  • Forestar's return-focused business model is centered on our high inventory turnover, lower risk lot manufacturing strategy.
  • Our strategic and operational plan is underpinned by our low net leverage and strong liquidity, the engagement of our people and our strategic relationship with D.R. Horton, the nation’s largest homebuilder.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2021

Historical avgQ4 2021

+0.2%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+3.6%

Avg return

30 days after

49%

32 / 65 earnings

Positive

+17.9%

Q4 2017

Best reaction

-15.3%

Q3 2018

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q2 2026+0.4%+6.3%-1.3%
Q1 2026-4.6%-9.6%+8.2%
Q4 2025+6.6%-0.2%-1.0%
Q3 2025+0.6%+1.3%+1.8%
Q2 2025-0.6%+1.6%+6.2%
Q1 2025-10.1%-12.4%-14.0%
Q4 2024+0.9%-1.9%-5.6%
Q3 2024-14.8%-11.4%-18.6%
Q2 2024-7.5%-7.9%+2.4%
Q1 2024-8.7%-6.2%-6.9%
Q4 2023+14.9%+14.3%+20.3%
Q3 2023+13.1%+21.6%+19.9%
Q2 2023+10.4%+17.0%+31.7%
Q1 2023-9.7%-10.7%-15.6%
Q4 2022+15.9%+17.2%+32.0%
Q3 2022-6.2%-6.9%-11.6%
Q2 2022-3.5%-2.9%-6.1%
Q1 2022+8.8%+11.7%+1.9%
Q4 2021+3.2%+2.2%-2.5%
Q3 2021+12.4%+12.4%+5.3%
Q2 2021-1.1%-0.5%-9.8%
Q1 2021-1.1%-1.6%-3.2%
Q4 2020+5.6%+7.1%+12.5%
Q3 2020+2.7%+5.4%+9.1%
Q2 2020+0.9%+13.0%+24.0%
Q1 2020-0.4%-9.2%-2.3%
Q4 2019+3.2%+4.0%+4.9%
Q3 2019+3.0%+6.8%-5.2%
Q2 2019+0.8%+1.5%-2.6%
Q4 2018-0.4%+1.6%+7.6%
Q3 2018-15.3%-16.4%-20.3%
Q2 2018+1.1%+0.0%+5.5%
Q1 2018-2.2%-4.8%+2.8%
Q4 2017+17.9%+11.0%+6.7%
Q3 2017-4.8%-1.4%+27.0%
Q2 2017-0.9%-0.9%+0.3%
Q1 2017+0.0%+0.0%+14.9%
Q4 2016-1.5%-1.5%+2.6%
Q3 2016+3.5%+9.7%+19.8%
Q2 2016-2.0%-2.6%+2.5%
Q1 2016-5.9%
Q4 2015+10.0%
Q3 2015-5.8%
Q2 2015+3.0%
Q1 2015-5.8%
Q4 2014+8.3%
Q3 2014+0.5%
Q2 2014+0.0%
Q1 2014-5.9%
Q4 2013-0.5%
Q3 2013-6.3%
Q2 2013-4.9%
Q1 2013+5.0%
Q4 2012+3.7%
Q3 2012-10.0%
Q2 2012+4.0%
Q1 2011-1.1%
Q1 2012+2.3%
Q4 2009+5.4%
Q4 2011+5.4%
Q3 2010+3.5%
Q3 2011+3.5%
Q2 2010-9.2%
Q2 2011-9.2%
Q4 2010-9.2%

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