NYSE$FOR

Forestar Group Inc · Q1 2022 earnings

Q1 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Forestar reported strong first quarter results driven by increased lot sales and improved profitability.

Forestar Group Inc. reported a significant increase in net income, pre-tax income, and revenues for the first quarter of fiscal 2022. Net income attributable to Forestar increased by 84% to $40.5 million, and revenues increased by 33% to $407.6 million, driven by a 27% increase in residential lots sold.

  • Net income attributable to Forestar increased 84% to $40.5 million, or $0.81 per diluted share.
  • Revenues increased 33% to $407.6 million.
  • Residential lots sold increased 27% to 4,516 lots.
  • Owned and controlled lots increased 33% to 103,300 lots.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$408M

Previous: $307M+32.7%
EPS (adj)

$0.81

Previous: $0.46+76.1%
Lots Sold

4.5K

No prior period
Avg Sales Price/Lot

$89K

Previous: $86K+3.5%
Capital Expenditures

-$1.5M

Previous: -$100K-1400.0%
Free Cash Flow

$39M

Previous: $21.9M+78.1%
Net Income

$40.5M

Previous: $22M+84.1%
Operating Income

$52.4M

Previous: $28.7M+82.6%
Gross Profit

$73.4M

Previous: $44.2M+66.1%
Cash & Equivalents

$163M

Previous: $237M-31.6%
Total Assets

$2.16B

Previous: $1.81B+19.5%
Stock-Based Comp

$400K

Previous: $300K+33.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Forestar · Revenue · Quarterly

$408M

Q1 2022+32.7%vs Q1 2021
Beat estimate in 13 of 15 quarters(87%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Forestar · $408M total across 2 segments · Q1 2022

  • Residential Lot Sales
    $404M+31.6%
  • Tract Sales & Other
    $3.5M

Forward guidance

Forestar is increasing its guidance for fiscal year 2022.

Tailwinds

  • Expect to deliver between 19,500 and 20,000 lots.
  • Anticipate generating approximately $1.7 billion of revenue.
  • Expect pre-tax profit margin to be between 13.5% and 14.0% for the full fiscal year.
  • Company expects continued robust growth.
  • Company expects increasing pre-tax profitability and returns in the coming years.

Headwinds

  • The effect of D.R. Horton's controlling level of ownership.
  • The impact of COVID-19 on the economy and our business.
  • The cyclical nature of the homebuilding and lot development industries and changes in economic, real estate and other conditions.
  • Supply shortages and other risks of acquiring land, construction materials and skilled labor.
  • Competitive conditions in our industry.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2022

Historical avgQ1 2022

+0.2%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+3.6%

Avg return

30 days after

49%

32 / 65 earnings

Positive

+17.9%

Q4 2017

Best reaction

-15.3%

Q3 2018

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q2 2026+0.4%+6.3%-1.3%
Q1 2026-4.6%-9.6%+8.2%
Q4 2025+6.6%-0.2%-1.0%
Q3 2025+0.6%+1.3%+1.8%
Q2 2025-0.6%+1.6%+6.2%
Q1 2025-10.1%-12.4%-14.0%
Q4 2024+0.9%-1.9%-5.6%
Q3 2024-14.8%-11.4%-18.6%
Q2 2024-7.5%-7.9%+2.4%
Q1 2024-8.7%-6.2%-6.9%
Q4 2023+14.9%+14.3%+20.3%
Q3 2023+13.1%+21.6%+19.9%
Q2 2023+10.4%+17.0%+31.7%
Q1 2023-9.7%-10.7%-15.6%
Q4 2022+15.9%+17.2%+32.0%
Q3 2022-6.2%-6.9%-11.6%
Q2 2022-3.5%-2.9%-6.1%
Q1 2022+8.8%+11.7%+1.9%
Q4 2021+3.2%+2.2%-2.5%
Q3 2021+12.4%+12.4%+5.3%
Q2 2021-1.1%-0.5%-9.8%
Q1 2021-1.1%-1.6%-3.2%
Q4 2020+5.6%+7.1%+12.5%
Q3 2020+2.7%+5.4%+9.1%
Q2 2020+0.9%+13.0%+24.0%
Q1 2020-0.4%-9.2%-2.3%
Q4 2019+3.2%+4.0%+4.9%
Q3 2019+3.0%+6.8%-5.2%
Q2 2019+0.8%+1.5%-2.6%
Q4 2018-0.4%+1.6%+7.6%
Q3 2018-15.3%-16.4%-20.3%
Q2 2018+1.1%+0.0%+5.5%
Q1 2018-2.2%-4.8%+2.8%
Q4 2017+17.9%+11.0%+6.7%
Q3 2017-4.8%-1.4%+27.0%
Q2 2017-0.9%-0.9%+0.3%
Q1 2017+0.0%+0.0%+14.9%
Q4 2016-1.5%-1.5%+2.6%
Q3 2016+3.5%+9.7%+19.8%
Q2 2016-2.0%-2.6%+2.5%
Q1 2016-5.9%
Q4 2015+10.0%
Q3 2015-5.8%
Q2 2015+3.0%
Q1 2015-5.8%
Q4 2014+8.3%
Q3 2014+0.5%
Q2 2014+0.0%
Q1 2014-5.9%
Q4 2013-0.5%
Q3 2013-6.3%
Q2 2013-4.9%
Q1 2013+5.0%
Q4 2012+3.7%
Q3 2012-10.0%
Q2 2012+4.0%
Q1 2011-1.1%
Q1 2012+2.3%
Q4 2009+5.4%
Q4 2011+5.4%
Q3 2010+3.5%
Q3 2011+3.5%
Q2 2010-9.2%
Q2 2011-9.2%
Q4 2010-9.2%

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