NYSE$FOR

Forestar Group Inc · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported a 15% increase in net income and a 13% increase in pre-tax income, driven by growth in revenues, pre-tax income, and EPS.

Forestar Group Inc. reported strong fourth-quarter and fiscal year 2022 results. Net income attributable to Forestar increased 15% to $50.8 million, or $1.02 per diluted share. Pre-tax income increased 13% to $66.4 million. Revenues for the quarter decreased 9% to $381.4 million.

  • Net income attributable to Forestar increased 15% to $50.8 million or $1.02 per diluted share.
  • Pre-tax income increased 13% to $66.4 million, with pre-tax profit margin increasing 340 basis points to 17.4%.
  • Consolidated revenues reached $381.4 million on 3,914 lots sold.
  • The company ended the year with $621.5 million in liquidity.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$381M

Previous: $419M-8.9%
EPS (adj)

$1.02

Previous: $0.85+20.0%
Lots Sold

3.9K

Previous: 4.9K-20.2%
Capital Expenditures

$300K

Previous: $1.1M-72.7%
Free Cash Flow

$119M

Previous: $36.4M+225.8%
Net Income

$50.8M

Previous: $44M+15.5%
Operating Income

$66.4M

Previous: $58.8M+12.9%
Gross Profit

$89.2M

Previous: $75.9M+17.5%
Cash & Equivalents

$265M

Previous: $154M+72.4%
Total Assets

$2.34B

Previous: $2.1B+11.5%
Stock-Based Comp

$500K

Previous: $600K-16.7%

Revenue & EPS history

Forestar · Revenue · Quarterly

$381M

Q4 2022-8.9%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 8 of 15 quarters(53%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Forestar · $375M total across 2 segments · Q4 2022

  • Residential Lot Sales
    $347M-12.9%
  • Tract Sales & Other
    $27.7M+37.8%

Forward guidance

While annual guidance is not provided due to market uncertainty, Forestar expects to continue consolidating market share. The company's strong balance sheet and liquidity provide significant financial and operational flexibility, and they plan to maintain a disciplined approach to capital investment.

Tailwinds

  • Continue consolidating market share
  • Strong balance sheet
  • Ample liquidity
  • Significant financial flexibility
  • Operational flexibility

Headwinds

  • Uncertainty in the market
  • Shortages of certain materials
  • Municipality delays
  • Inflation
  • Historic rise in mortgage interest rates

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

+0.2%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+3.6%

Avg return

30 days after

49%

32 / 65 earnings

Positive

+17.9%

Q4 2017

Best reaction

-15.3%

Q3 2018

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q2 2026+0.4%+6.3%-1.3%
Q1 2026-4.6%-9.6%+8.2%
Q4 2025+6.6%-0.2%-1.0%
Q3 2025+0.6%+1.3%+1.8%
Q2 2025-0.6%+1.6%+6.2%
Q1 2025-10.1%-12.4%-14.0%
Q4 2024+0.9%-1.9%-5.6%
Q3 2024-14.8%-11.4%-18.6%
Q2 2024-7.5%-7.9%+2.4%
Q1 2024-8.7%-6.2%-6.9%
Q4 2023+14.9%+14.3%+20.3%
Q3 2023+13.1%+21.6%+19.9%
Q2 2023+10.4%+17.0%+31.7%
Q1 2023-9.7%-10.7%-15.6%
Q4 2022+15.9%+17.2%+32.0%
Q3 2022-6.2%-6.9%-11.6%
Q2 2022-3.5%-2.9%-6.1%
Q1 2022+8.8%+11.7%+1.9%
Q4 2021+3.2%+2.2%-2.5%
Q3 2021+12.4%+12.4%+5.3%
Q2 2021-1.1%-0.5%-9.8%
Q1 2021-1.1%-1.6%-3.2%
Q4 2020+5.6%+7.1%+12.5%
Q3 2020+2.7%+5.4%+9.1%
Q2 2020+0.9%+13.0%+24.0%
Q1 2020-0.4%-9.2%-2.3%
Q4 2019+3.2%+4.0%+4.9%
Q3 2019+3.0%+6.8%-5.2%
Q2 2019+0.8%+1.5%-2.6%
Q4 2018-0.4%+1.6%+7.6%
Q3 2018-15.3%-16.4%-20.3%
Q2 2018+1.1%+0.0%+5.5%
Q1 2018-2.2%-4.8%+2.8%
Q4 2017+17.9%+11.0%+6.7%
Q3 2017-4.8%-1.4%+27.0%
Q2 2017-0.9%-0.9%+0.3%
Q1 2017+0.0%+0.0%+14.9%
Q4 2016-1.5%-1.5%+2.6%
Q3 2016+3.5%+9.7%+19.8%
Q2 2016-2.0%-2.6%+2.5%
Q1 2016-5.9%
Q4 2015+10.0%
Q3 2015-5.8%
Q2 2015+3.0%
Q1 2015-5.8%
Q4 2014+8.3%
Q3 2014+0.5%
Q2 2014+0.0%
Q1 2014-5.9%
Q4 2013-0.5%
Q3 2013-6.3%
Q2 2013-4.9%
Q1 2013+5.0%
Q4 2012+3.7%
Q3 2012-10.0%
Q2 2012+4.0%
Q1 2011-1.1%
Q1 2012+2.3%
Q4 2009+5.4%
Q4 2011+5.4%
Q3 2010+3.5%
Q3 2011+3.5%
Q2 2010-9.2%
Q2 2011-9.2%
Q4 2010-9.2%

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