NYSE$FOR

Forestar Group Inc · Q1 2021 earnings

Q1 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported earnings of $0.46 per diluted share for the first quarter of fiscal year 2021.

Forestar reported a strong start to fiscal year 2021, with a 24% increase in revenues to $307.1 million and a 30% increase in net income to $22.0 million, or $0.46 per diluted share, compared to the same quarter of fiscal 2020. The company also increased residential lots sold by 47% to 3,567 lots.

  • Revenues increased 24% to $307.1 million compared to the same quarter of fiscal 2020.
  • Net income attributable to Forestar increased 30% to $22.0 million, or $0.46 per diluted share.
  • Residential lots sold increased 47% to 3,567 lots.
  • Lot position increased 74% to 77,500 lots.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$307M

Previous: $247M+24.2%
EPS (adj)

$0.46

Previous: $0.35+31.4%
Avg Sales Price/Lot

$86K

Previous: $90.3K-4.8%
Capital Expenditures

-$100K

Previous: $0.00
Free Cash Flow

$21.9M

Previous: $16.9M+29.6%
Net Income

$22M

Previous: $16.9M+30.2%
Operating Income

$28.7M

Previous: $19.9M+44.2%
Gross Profit

$44.2M

Previous: $30.6M+44.4%
Cash & Equivalents

$237M

Previous: $373M-36.4%
Total Assets

$1.81B

Previous: $1.48B+22.3%
Stock-Based Comp

$300K

Previous: $500K-40.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Forestar · Revenue · Quarterly

$307M

Q1 2021+24.2%vs Q1 2020
Beat estimate in 11 of 15 quarters(73%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Forestar · $307M total across 1 segment · Q1 2021

  • Residential Lot Sales
    $307M+41.4%

Forward guidance

Forestar expects to deliver between 13,500 and 14,000 lots in fiscal year 2021.

Tailwinds

  • Housing market conditions remain favorable across the country.
  • Company expects to continue to consolidate market share.
  • Company is well positioned to operate through changing economic conditions due to low net leverage and strong liquidity position.
  • Company has a low overhead model.
  • Company has a strategic relationship with D.R. Horton.

Headwinds

  • Impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic could affect the company's business operations and the demand for its residential lots.
  • Uncertainty regarding the extent to which and how long C-19 and its related effects will have on the U.S. economy, capital markets and demand for the Company's lots.
  • Operational and financial performance will depend on future developments, including the duration and severity of C-19 and the impact on the Company's customers, trade partners and employees.
  • Cyclical nature of the homebuilding and lot development industries and changes in economic, real estate and other conditions.
  • Competitive conditions in our industry.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2021

Historical avgQ1 2021

+0.2%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+3.6%

Avg return

30 days after

49%

32 / 65 earnings

Positive

+17.9%

Q4 2017

Best reaction

-15.3%

Q3 2018

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q2 2026+0.4%+6.3%-1.3%
Q1 2026-4.6%-9.6%+8.2%
Q4 2025+6.6%-0.2%-1.0%
Q3 2025+0.6%+1.3%+1.8%
Q2 2025-0.6%+1.6%+6.2%
Q1 2025-10.1%-12.4%-14.0%
Q4 2024+0.9%-1.9%-5.6%
Q3 2024-14.8%-11.4%-18.6%
Q2 2024-7.5%-7.9%+2.4%
Q1 2024-8.7%-6.2%-6.9%
Q4 2023+14.9%+14.3%+20.3%
Q3 2023+13.1%+21.6%+19.9%
Q2 2023+10.4%+17.0%+31.7%
Q1 2023-9.7%-10.7%-15.6%
Q4 2022+15.9%+17.2%+32.0%
Q3 2022-6.2%-6.9%-11.6%
Q2 2022-3.5%-2.9%-6.1%
Q1 2022+8.8%+11.7%+1.9%
Q4 2021+3.2%+2.2%-2.5%
Q3 2021+12.4%+12.4%+5.3%
Q2 2021-1.1%-0.5%-9.8%
Q1 2021-1.1%-1.6%-3.2%
Q4 2020+5.6%+7.1%+12.5%
Q3 2020+2.7%+5.4%+9.1%
Q2 2020+0.9%+13.0%+24.0%
Q1 2020-0.4%-9.2%-2.3%
Q4 2019+3.2%+4.0%+4.9%
Q3 2019+3.0%+6.8%-5.2%
Q2 2019+0.8%+1.5%-2.6%
Q4 2018-0.4%+1.6%+7.6%
Q3 2018-15.3%-16.4%-20.3%
Q2 2018+1.1%+0.0%+5.5%
Q1 2018-2.2%-4.8%+2.8%
Q4 2017+17.9%+11.0%+6.7%
Q3 2017-4.8%-1.4%+27.0%
Q2 2017-0.9%-0.9%+0.3%
Q1 2017+0.0%+0.0%+14.9%
Q4 2016-1.5%-1.5%+2.6%
Q3 2016+3.5%+9.7%+19.8%
Q2 2016-2.0%-2.6%+2.5%
Q1 2016-5.9%
Q4 2015+10.0%
Q3 2015-5.8%
Q2 2015+3.0%
Q1 2015-5.8%
Q4 2014+8.3%
Q3 2014+0.5%
Q2 2014+0.0%
Q1 2014-5.9%
Q4 2013-0.5%
Q3 2013-6.3%
Q2 2013-4.9%
Q1 2013+5.0%
Q4 2012+3.7%
Q3 2012-10.0%
Q2 2012+4.0%
Q1 2011-1.1%
Q1 2012+2.3%
Q4 2009+5.4%
Q4 2011+5.4%
Q3 2010+3.5%
Q3 2011+3.5%
Q2 2010-9.2%
Q2 2011-9.2%
Q4 2010-9.2%

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