NYSE$FOR

Forestar Group Inc · Q1 2024 earnings

Q1 2024 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported an increase in net income and revenues, driven by a rise in residential lots sold.

Forestar Group Inc. reported a strong first quarter in fiscal year 2024, with net income increasing by 84% to $38.2 million and revenues increasing by 41% to $305.9 million. The company sold 3,150 residential lots, a 39% increase compared to the same quarter of the previous year. Forestar's strategic focus and strong balance sheet position them well to capitalize on the constrained supply of vacant developed lots.

  • Net income increased 84% to $38.2 million, or $0.76 per diluted share.
  • Pre-tax income increased 84% to $51.2 million.
  • Consolidated revenues increased 41% to $305.9 million.
  • Residential lots sold increased 39% to 3,150 lots.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$306M

Previous: $217M+41.2%
EPS

$0.76

Previous: $0.42+81.0%
Lots Sold

3.1K

Previous: 2.3K+39.2%
Avg Sales Price/Lot

$96.4K

Previous: $90.1K+7.0%
Capital Expenditures

-$200K

Previous: -$100K-100.0%
Free Cash Flow

$38M

Previous: $20.7M+83.6%
Net Income

$38.2M

Previous: $20.8M+83.7%
Operating Income

$44.9M

Previous: $26.2M+71.4%
Gross Profit

$72.9M

Previous: $47.5M+53.5%
Cash & Equivalents

$459M

Previous: $216M+112.1%
Total Assets

$2.53B

Previous: $2.34B+8.2%
Stock-Based Comp

$900K

Previous: $600K+50.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Forestar · Revenue · Quarterly

$306M

Q1 2024+41.2%vs Q1 2023
Beat estimate in 8 of 15 quarters(53%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Forestar · $550M total across 2 segments · Q4 2023

  • Residential Lot Sales
    $486M+39.8%
  • Tract Sales & Other
    $64.1M+131.4%

Forward guidance

Forestar expects to deliver between 14,500 and 15,500 lots in fiscal 2024, generating $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion in revenue.

Tailwinds

  • Supply of vacant developed lots, particularly at affordable price points, continues to be constrained across most of the country.
  • Forestar is uniquely positioned to take advantage of the shortage of finished lots in the homebuilding industry.
  • Expects to deliver between 14,500 and 15,500 lots in fiscal 2024.
  • Generating $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion in revenue.
  • Strong balance sheet and ample liquidity give flexibility to invest in land opportunities.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2024

Historical avgQ1 2024

+0.2%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+3.6%

Avg return

30 days after

49%

32 / 65 earnings

Positive

+17.9%

Q4 2017

Best reaction

-15.3%

Q3 2018

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q2 2026+0.4%+6.3%-1.3%
Q1 2026-4.6%-9.6%+8.2%
Q4 2025+6.6%-0.2%-1.0%
Q3 2025+0.6%+1.3%+1.8%
Q2 2025-0.6%+1.6%+6.2%
Q1 2025-10.1%-12.4%-14.0%
Q4 2024+0.9%-1.9%-5.6%
Q3 2024-14.8%-11.4%-18.6%
Q2 2024-7.5%-7.9%+2.4%
Q1 2024-8.7%-6.2%-6.9%
Q4 2023+14.9%+14.3%+20.3%
Q3 2023+13.1%+21.6%+19.9%
Q2 2023+10.4%+17.0%+31.7%
Q1 2023-9.7%-10.7%-15.6%
Q4 2022+15.9%+17.2%+32.0%
Q3 2022-6.2%-6.9%-11.6%
Q2 2022-3.5%-2.9%-6.1%
Q1 2022+8.8%+11.7%+1.9%
Q4 2021+3.2%+2.2%-2.5%
Q3 2021+12.4%+12.4%+5.3%
Q2 2021-1.1%-0.5%-9.8%
Q1 2021-1.1%-1.6%-3.2%
Q4 2020+5.6%+7.1%+12.5%
Q3 2020+2.7%+5.4%+9.1%
Q2 2020+0.9%+13.0%+24.0%
Q1 2020-0.4%-9.2%-2.3%
Q4 2019+3.2%+4.0%+4.9%
Q3 2019+3.0%+6.8%-5.2%
Q2 2019+0.8%+1.5%-2.6%
Q4 2018-0.4%+1.6%+7.6%
Q3 2018-15.3%-16.4%-20.3%
Q2 2018+1.1%+0.0%+5.5%
Q1 2018-2.2%-4.8%+2.8%
Q4 2017+17.9%+11.0%+6.7%
Q3 2017-4.8%-1.4%+27.0%
Q2 2017-0.9%-0.9%+0.3%
Q1 2017+0.0%+0.0%+14.9%
Q4 2016-1.5%-1.5%+2.6%
Q3 2016+3.5%+9.7%+19.8%
Q2 2016-2.0%-2.6%+2.5%
Q1 2016-5.9%
Q4 2015+10.0%
Q3 2015-5.8%
Q2 2015+3.0%
Q1 2015-5.8%
Q4 2014+8.3%
Q3 2014+0.5%
Q2 2014+0.0%
Q1 2014-5.9%
Q4 2013-0.5%
Q3 2013-6.3%
Q2 2013-4.9%
Q1 2013+5.0%
Q4 2012+3.7%
Q3 2012-10.0%
Q2 2012+4.0%
Q1 2011-1.1%
Q1 2012+2.3%
Q4 2009+5.4%
Q4 2011+5.4%
Q3 2010+3.5%
Q3 2011+3.5%
Q2 2010-9.2%
Q2 2011-9.2%
Q4 2010-9.2%

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