NASDAQ$SIGI

Selective Insurance Group Inc · Q2 2023 earnings

Q2 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Selective Insurance reported strong growth and profitability despite elevated catastrophe losses.

Selective Insurance Group, Inc. reported a net income of $0.92 per diluted common share and a non-GAAP operating income of $0.99 per diluted common share for the second quarter ended June 30, 2023. The company experienced exceptional growth in net premiums written, which increased by 17% compared to the second quarter of 2022. However, the GAAP combined ratio was 100.2%, impacted by significant catastrophe losses.

  • Net premiums written increased 17% compared to the second quarter of 2022.
  • GAAP combined ratio was 100.2%, inclusive of $100 million in pre-tax net catastrophe losses.
  • Commercial Lines renewal pure price increases averaged 6.7%, compared to 5.3% in the second quarter of 2022.
  • After-tax net investment income of $78 million, up 37% compared to the second quarter of 2022.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.04B

Previous: $865M+20.3%
EPS (adj)

$0.99

Previous: $1.17-15.4%
Combined Ratio

100.2%

Previous: 95.5%+4.9%
Std Commercial Lines Combined Ratio

97.1%

Previous: 93.1%+4.3%
Std Personal Lines Combined Ratio

126.5%

Previous: 116.9%+8.2%
E&S Lines Combined Ratio

100.7%

Previous: 95.8%+5.1%
Capital Expenditures

-$9.55M

Previous: -$14.1M+32.3%
Free Cash Flow

$49.1M

Previous: $25.4M+93.0%
Net Income

$58.6M

Previous: $39.5M+48.3%
Operating Income

$718M

Previous: $574M+25.1%
Gross Profit

$1.03B

Previous: $857M+20.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$21.3M

Previous: $7.57M+181.0%
Total Assets

$11.2B

Previous: $10.3B+8.7%
Stock-Based Comp

$5.17M

Previous: $4.86M+6.4%

Revenue & EPS history

Selective Insurance · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.04B

Q2 2023+20.3%vs Q2 2022
Beat estimate in 9 of 15 quarters(60%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Selective Insurance · $1.08B total across 3 segments · Q2 2023

  • Standard Commercial Lines
    $870M+14.4%
  • Standard Personal Lines
    $109M+32.1%
  • Excess and Surplus Lines
    $106M

Forward guidance

For 2023, Selective increased its expectation for net catastrophe losses while maintaining other full-year expectations.

Tailwinds

  • A GAAP combined ratio of 96.5%, including net catastrophe losses of 6.0 points.
  • After-tax net investment income of $300 million that includes $30 million of after-tax net investment income from our alternative investments.
  • An overall effective tax rate of approximately 21%, which assumes an effective tax rate of 20% for net investment income and 21% for all other items.
  • Weighted average shares of 61 million on a fully diluted basis.

Headwinds

  • Challenging conditions in the economy, global capital markets, the banking sector, and commercial real estate, including prolonged higher inflation, could increase loss costs and negatively impact investment portfolios.
  • Deterioration in the public debt and equity markets and private investment marketplace that could lead to investment losses and interest rate fluctuations.
  • Ratings downgrades on individual securities we own could affect investment values and, therefore, statutory surplus.
  • Frequency and severity of catastrophic events, including natural events that may be impacted by climate change, such as hurricanes, severe convective storms, tornadoes, windstorms, earthquakes, hail, severe winter weather, floods, and fires, and man-made events such as criminal and terrorist acts, including cyber-attacks, explosions, and civil unrest.
  • Adverse market, governmental, regulatory, legal, or judicial conditions or actions.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2023

Historical avgQ2 2023

-0.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.3%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.4%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

35 / 69 earnings

Positive

+9.7%

Q1 2017

Best reaction

-18.9%

Q2 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+8.8%+10.3%+16.8%
Q4 2025+0.3%+6.0%-0.0%
Q3 2025-5.7%-6.9%-4.0%
Q2 2025-1.9%-0.4%+1.0%
Q1 2025-1.8%-2.8%-5.1%
Q4 2024-12.6%-11.2%-8.5%
Q3 2024-5.4%-7.4%-2.7%
Q2 2024-18.9%-14.7%-12.1%
Q1 2024-5.8%-3.4%-4.0%
Q4 2023-8.9%-6.7%-2.2%
Q3 2023+1.2%+0.3%-2.7%
Q2 2023-1.5%+1.0%-3.6%
Q1 2023+5.1%+6.2%+1.4%
Q4 2022+7.7%+2.9%+11.3%
Q3 2022-2.1%-3.2%-0.5%
Q2 2022+0.2%+2.5%+4.8%
Q1 2022-4.6%-4.9%-6.6%
Q4 2021-3.8%+0.7%+4.9%
Q3 2021-4.2%-3.1%-2.9%
Q2 2021+2.0%+2.7%+7.7%
Q1 2021+0.5%+0.7%-1.8%
Q4 2020-2.9%-3.2%+1.4%
Q3 2020-0.2%-0.8%+18.0%
Q2 2020-2.7%-3.3%+5.3%
Q1 2020-5.8%+0.3%+13.5%
Q4 2019+0.7%+3.1%-15.2%
Q3 2019-3.7%-4.3%-7.7%
Q2 2019+4.4%+2.8%+6.3%
Q1 2019-2.3%+0.8%+0.5%
Q4 2018+3.9%+5.7%+9.8%
Q3 2018+3.6%+11.6%+6.5%
Q2 2018+5.0%+4.3%+7.4%
Q1 2018-5.4%-5.7%-2.6%
Q4 2017+1.8%-1.6%-1.7%
Q3 2017+6.4%+5.7%+7.8%
Q2 2017-3.1%-1.3%-0.7%
Q1 2017+9.7%+7.1%+3.6%
Q4 2016+4.9%+5.0%+10.3%
Q3 2016-8.7%-7.2%+6.2%
Q2 2016+1.5%-1.1%-1.7%
Q1 2016+0.8%
Q4 2015+6.5%
Q3 2015+1.5%
Q2 2015+3.2%
Q1 2015-3.8%
Q4 2014-3.2%
Q3 2014+2.5%
Q2 2014-3.6%
Q1 2014+0.3%
Q4 2013-2.5%
Q3 2013-2.6%
Q2 2013+3.9%
Q1 2013-1.6%
Q4 2012+7.5%
Q3 2012-0.9%
Q2 2012-2.8%
Q4 2011-2.0%
Q1 2012+1.7%
Q3 2011+3.7%
Q2 2011-0.1%
Q1 2010+4.3%
Q1 2011+2.1%
Q4 2010+3.1%
Q4 2008+3.1%
Q3 2009-2.5%
Q3 2010-2.5%
Q4 2009+0.4%
Q2 2009+0.4%
Q2 2010+0.4%

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