NASDAQ$SIGI

Selective Insurance Group Inc · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Selective Insurance reported strong Q4 2023 results with increased net income, non-GAAP operating income, and growth in net premiums written across all insurance segments.

Selective Insurance Group, Inc. reported a net income per diluted common share of $2.01 and a non-GAAP operating income per diluted common share of $1.94 for Q4 2023. The combined ratio was 93.7%, and net premiums written grew by 17%. The company achieved an operating ROE of 18.2%.

  • Net premiums written increased 17% from the fourth quarter of 2022.
  • The GAAP combined ratio was 93.7%, 1-point better than the fourth quarter of 2022.
  • After-tax net investment income was $78 million, up 20% compared to the fourth quarter of 2022.
  • Commercial Lines renewal pure price increases averaged 7.3%, up 1.7 points from 5.6% in the fourth quarter of 2022.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$992M

Previous: $850M+16.7%
EPS (adj)

$1.94

Previous: $1.46+32.9%
Combined Ratio

93.7%

Previous: 94.7%-1.1%
Std Commercial Lines Combined Ratio

93.1%

Previous: 95.5%-2.5%
Std Personal Lines Combined Ratio

116.9%

Previous: 99.9%+17.0%
E&S Lines Combined Ratio

76.2%

Previous: 84.3%-9.6%
Capital Expenditures

$7.87M

Previous: $4.26M+84.7%
Net Income

$123M

Previous: $84.2M+45.5%
Operating Income

$118M

Previous: $88.9M+33.1%
Gross Profit

$1.05B

Previous: $937M+12.4%
Stock-Based Comp

$1.97M

Previous: $3.31M-40.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Selective Insurance · Revenue · Quarterly

$992M

Q4 2023+16.7%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 9 of 15 quarters(60%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Selective Insurance · $947M total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Standard Commercial Lines
    $834M+20.4%
  • Standard Personal Lines
    $113M+49.7%

Forward guidance

For 2024, Selective expects a GAAP combined ratio of 95.5%, including net catastrophe losses of 5.0 points, and after-tax net investment income of $360 million.

Tailwinds

  • GAAP combined ratio of 95.5%
  • Net catastrophe losses of 5.0 points
  • After-tax net investment income of $360 million
  • Effective tax rate of approximately 21.0%
  • Weighted average shares of 61.5 million on a fully diluted basis.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

-0.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.3%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.4%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

35 / 69 earnings

Positive

+9.7%

Q1 2017

Best reaction

-18.9%

Q2 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+8.8%+10.3%+16.8%
Q4 2025+0.3%+6.0%-0.0%
Q3 2025-5.7%-6.9%-4.0%
Q2 2025-1.9%-0.4%+1.0%
Q1 2025-1.8%-2.8%-5.1%
Q4 2024-12.6%-11.2%-8.5%
Q3 2024-5.4%-7.4%-2.7%
Q2 2024-18.9%-14.7%-12.1%
Q1 2024-5.8%-3.4%-4.0%
Q4 2023-8.9%-6.7%-2.2%
Q3 2023+1.2%+0.3%-2.7%
Q2 2023-1.5%+1.0%-3.6%
Q1 2023+5.1%+6.2%+1.4%
Q4 2022+7.7%+2.9%+11.3%
Q3 2022-2.1%-3.2%-0.5%
Q2 2022+0.2%+2.5%+4.8%
Q1 2022-4.6%-4.9%-6.6%
Q4 2021-3.8%+0.7%+4.9%
Q3 2021-4.2%-3.1%-2.9%
Q2 2021+2.0%+2.7%+7.7%
Q1 2021+0.5%+0.7%-1.8%
Q4 2020-2.9%-3.2%+1.4%
Q3 2020-0.2%-0.8%+18.0%
Q2 2020-2.7%-3.3%+5.3%
Q1 2020-5.8%+0.3%+13.5%
Q4 2019+0.7%+3.1%-15.2%
Q3 2019-3.7%-4.3%-7.7%
Q2 2019+4.4%+2.8%+6.3%
Q1 2019-2.3%+0.8%+0.5%
Q4 2018+3.9%+5.7%+9.8%
Q3 2018+3.6%+11.6%+6.5%
Q2 2018+5.0%+4.3%+7.4%
Q1 2018-5.4%-5.7%-2.6%
Q4 2017+1.8%-1.6%-1.7%
Q3 2017+6.4%+5.7%+7.8%
Q2 2017-3.1%-1.3%-0.7%
Q1 2017+9.7%+7.1%+3.6%
Q4 2016+4.9%+5.0%+10.3%
Q3 2016-8.7%-7.2%+6.2%
Q2 2016+1.5%-1.1%-1.7%
Q1 2016+0.8%
Q4 2015+6.5%
Q3 2015+1.5%
Q2 2015+3.2%
Q1 2015-3.8%
Q4 2014-3.2%
Q3 2014+2.5%
Q2 2014-3.6%
Q1 2014+0.3%
Q4 2013-2.5%
Q3 2013-2.6%
Q2 2013+3.9%
Q1 2013-1.6%
Q4 2012+7.5%
Q3 2012-0.9%
Q2 2012-2.8%
Q4 2011-2.0%
Q1 2012+1.7%
Q3 2011+3.7%
Q2 2011-0.1%
Q1 2010+4.3%
Q1 2011+2.1%
Q4 2010+3.1%
Q4 2008+3.1%
Q3 2009-2.5%
Q3 2010-2.5%
Q4 2009+0.4%
Q2 2009+0.4%
Q2 2010+0.4%

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