NASDAQ$SIGI

Selective Insurance Group Inc · Q3 2024 earnings

Q3 2024 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Selective Insurance reported net income of $1.47 per diluted common share and non-GAAP operating income of $1.40 per diluted common share for Q3 2024.

Selective Insurance Group reported a strong third quarter with net income per diluted common share at $1.47 and non-GAAP operating income per diluted common share at $1.40. The company faced elevated catastrophe losses, but underlying performance remained excellent due to disciplined underwriting and pricing.

  • Net premiums written increased 9% from the third quarter of 2023.
  • The GAAP combined ratio was 99.5%, impacted by net catastrophe losses.
  • Commercial Lines renewal pure price increases averaged 9.1%.
  • After-tax net investment income was $93 million, up 16% from the third quarter of 2023.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.24B

Previous: $1.08B+15.1%
EPS

$1.47

Previous: $1.51-2.6%
Combined Ratio

99.5%

Previous: 96.8%+2.8%
Std Commercial Lines Combined Ratio

99.2%

Previous: 94.7%+4.8%
Std Personal Lines Combined Ratio

122.1%

Previous: 127.4%-4.2%
E&S Lines Combined Ratio

83.2%

Previous: 83.9%-0.8%
Net Premiums Written

$1.16B

No prior period
Net Investment Income (After-tax)

$93.4M

No prior period
Return on Common Equity

12.6%

No prior period
Non-GAAP Operating ROE

12.1%

No prior period
Commercial Lines Renewal Pure Price

9.1%

No prior period
Book Value Per Common Share

$48.82

No prior period
Adjusted Book Value Per Share

$50.80

No prior period
Net Catastrophe Losses

13.4%

No prior period
Unfavorable Prior Year Reserve Dev.

0.0%

No prior period
Overall Renewal Pure Price Increase

10.5%

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$23.3M

Previous: -$14.8M-58.1%
Free Cash Flow

$68.9M

Previous: $74.4M-7.4%
Net Income

$92.3M

Previous: $89.2M+3.4%
Operating Income

$119M

Previous: $760M-84.3%
Gross Profit

$1.24B

Previous: $1.08B+15.3%
Stock-Based Comp

$3.09M

Previous: $3.49M-11.5%

Revenue & EPS history

Selective Insurance · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.24B

Q3 2024+15.1%vs Q3 2023
Beat estimate in 9 of 15 quarters(60%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Selective Insurance · $947M total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Standard Commercial Lines
    $834M+20.4%
  • Standard Personal Lines
    $113M+49.7%

Forward guidance

Selective Insurance increased its expected GAAP combined ratio for 2024 to 102.5%, reflecting elevated catastrophe losses. They anticipate after-tax net investment income of $360 million and an effective tax rate of approximately 21.0%.

Tailwinds

  • After-tax net investment income of $360 million that includes $32 million from alternative investments.
  • An overall effective tax rate of approximately 21.0%, which assumes an effective tax rate of 20.5% for net investment income and 21% for all other items.
  • Weighted average shares of 61.5 million on a fully diluted basis.
  • Combined ratio estimate assumes no additional prior year casualty reserve development
  • Expect losses from Hurricane Milton, which made landfall on October 9, 2024, to be immaterial.

Headwinds

  • A GAAP combined ratio of 102.5%, up 1 point from our prior guidance of 101.5%.
  • Our combined ratio estimate includes net catastrophe losses of 7.5 points, up from prior guidance of 5.5 points.
  • Challenging conditions in the economy, global capital markets, the banking sector, and commercial real estate, including prolonged higher inflation, could increase loss costs and negatively impact investment portfolios
  • Deterioration in the public debt, public equity, or private investment markets that could lead to investment losses and interest rate fluctuations
  • Frequency and severity of catastrophic events, including natural events that may be impacted by climate change, such as hurricanes, severe convective storms, tornadoes, windstorms, earthquakes, hail, severe winter weather, floods, and fires, and man-made events such as criminal and terrorist acts, including cyber-attacks, explosions, and civil unrest

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2024

Historical avgQ3 2024

-0.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.3%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.4%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

35 / 69 earnings

Positive

+9.7%

Q1 2017

Best reaction

-18.9%

Q2 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+8.8%+10.3%+16.8%
Q4 2025+0.3%+6.0%-0.0%
Q3 2025-5.7%-6.9%-4.0%
Q2 2025-1.9%-0.4%+1.0%
Q1 2025-1.8%-2.8%-5.1%
Q4 2024-12.6%-11.2%-8.5%
Q3 2024-5.4%-7.4%-2.7%
Q2 2024-18.9%-14.7%-12.1%
Q1 2024-5.8%-3.4%-4.0%
Q4 2023-8.9%-6.7%-2.2%
Q3 2023+1.2%+0.3%-2.7%
Q2 2023-1.5%+1.0%-3.6%
Q1 2023+5.1%+6.2%+1.4%
Q4 2022+7.7%+2.9%+11.3%
Q3 2022-2.1%-3.2%-0.5%
Q2 2022+0.2%+2.5%+4.8%
Q1 2022-4.6%-4.9%-6.6%
Q4 2021-3.8%+0.7%+4.9%
Q3 2021-4.2%-3.1%-2.9%
Q2 2021+2.0%+2.7%+7.7%
Q1 2021+0.5%+0.7%-1.8%
Q4 2020-2.9%-3.2%+1.4%
Q3 2020-0.2%-0.8%+18.0%
Q2 2020-2.7%-3.3%+5.3%
Q1 2020-5.8%+0.3%+13.5%
Q4 2019+0.7%+3.1%-15.2%
Q3 2019-3.7%-4.3%-7.7%
Q2 2019+4.4%+2.8%+6.3%
Q1 2019-2.3%+0.8%+0.5%
Q4 2018+3.9%+5.7%+9.8%
Q3 2018+3.6%+11.6%+6.5%
Q2 2018+5.0%+4.3%+7.4%
Q1 2018-5.4%-5.7%-2.6%
Q4 2017+1.8%-1.6%-1.7%
Q3 2017+6.4%+5.7%+7.8%
Q2 2017-3.1%-1.3%-0.7%
Q1 2017+9.7%+7.1%+3.6%
Q4 2016+4.9%+5.0%+10.3%
Q3 2016-8.7%-7.2%+6.2%
Q2 2016+1.5%-1.1%-1.7%
Q1 2016+0.8%
Q4 2015+6.5%
Q3 2015+1.5%
Q2 2015+3.2%
Q1 2015-3.8%
Q4 2014-3.2%
Q3 2014+2.5%
Q2 2014-3.6%
Q1 2014+0.3%
Q4 2013-2.5%
Q3 2013-2.6%
Q2 2013+3.9%
Q1 2013-1.6%
Q4 2012+7.5%
Q3 2012-0.9%
Q2 2012-2.8%
Q4 2011-2.0%
Q1 2012+1.7%
Q3 2011+3.7%
Q2 2011-0.1%
Q1 2010+4.3%
Q1 2011+2.1%
Q4 2010+3.1%
Q4 2008+3.1%
Q3 2009-2.5%
Q3 2010-2.5%
Q4 2009+0.4%
Q2 2009+0.4%
Q2 2010+0.4%

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