NASDAQ$SIGI

Selective Insurance Group Inc · Q4 2024 earnings

Q4 2024 earnings · · After market close · Investor relations

Briefing

Selective Insurance reported fourth quarter results with net income per diluted common share of $1.52 and non-GAAP operating income per diluted common share of $1.62.

Selective Insurance Group, Inc. reported a decrease in net income per diluted common share to $1.52 and a non-GAAP operating income per diluted common share of $1.62 for Q4 2024. The combined ratio was 98.5%, impacted by unfavorable prior year casualty reserve development. Despite challenges, NPW increased by 10% driven by renewal pure price increases.

  • Net income per diluted common share was $1.52, and non-GAAP operating income per diluted common share was $1.62.
  • Net premiums written increased 10% compared to the fourth quarter of 2023.
  • The GAAP combined ratio was 98.5%, compared to 93.7% in the fourth quarter of 2023, influenced by unfavorable prior year casualty reserve development.
  • After-tax net investment income increased 24% from the fourth quarter of 2023, reaching $97 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.09B

Previous: $992M+9.9%
EPS (adj)

$1.62

Previous: $1.94-16.5%
Combined Ratio

98.5%

Previous: 93.7%+5.1%
Std Commercial Lines Combined Ratio

100.2%

Previous: 93.1%+7.6%
Std Personal Lines Combined Ratio

91.7%

Previous: 116.9%-21.6%
E&S Lines Combined Ratio

93.1%

Previous: 76.2%+22.2%
Net Premiums Written

$1.09B

No prior period
Net Investment Income (After-tax)

$97.3M

No prior period
Return on Common Equity

12.7%

No prior period
Non-GAAP Operating ROE

13.5%

No prior period
Commercial Lines Renewal Pure Price

8.8%

No prior period
Book Value Per Common Share

$47.99

No prior period
Adjusted Book Value Per Share

$52.10

No prior period
Net Catastrophe Losses

-0.9%

No prior period
Unfavorable Prior Year Reserve Dev.

8.8%

No prior period
Overall Renewal Pure Price Increase

10.7%

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$7.47M

Previous: $7.87M-195.0%
Net Income

$93.2M

Previous: $123M-23.9%
Operating Income

$99.6M

Previous: $118M-15.8%

Revenue & EPS history

Selective Insurance · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.09B

Q4 2024+9.9%vs Q4 2023
Beat estimate in 9 of 15 quarters(60%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Selective Insurance · $947M total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Standard Commercial Lines
    $834M+20.4%
  • Standard Personal Lines
    $113M+49.7%

Forward guidance

For 2025, Selective expects a GAAP combined ratio of 96% to 97%, including net catastrophe losses of 6 points, after-tax net investment income of $405 million, an overall effective tax rate of 21.5%, and weighted average shares of 61.5 million on a fully diluted basis.

Tailwinds

  • GAAP combined ratio of 96% to 97%
  • Net catastrophe losses of 6 points
  • After-tax net investment income of $405 million
  • Overall effective tax rate of 21.5%
  • Weighted average shares of 61.5 million on a fully diluted basis

Headwinds

  • Combined ratio estimate assumes no prior year casualty reserve development
  • Challenging conditions in the economy, global capital markets, the banking sector, and commercial real estate, including prolonged higher inflation, could increase loss costs and negatively impact investment portfolios
  • Deterioration in the public debt, public equity, or private investment markets that could lead to investment losses and interest rate fluctuations
  • Frequency and severity of catastrophic events, including natural events that may be impacted by climate change, such as hurricanes, severe convective storms, tornadoes, windstorms, earthquakes, hail, severe winter weather, floods, and fires, and man-made events such as criminal and terrorist acts, including cyber-attacks, explosions, and civil unrest
  • Adverse market, governmental, regulatory, legal, political, or judicial rulings, conditions or actions, including the impact of social inflation

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2024

Historical avgQ4 2024

-0.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.3%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.4%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

35 / 69 earnings

Positive

+9.7%

Q1 2017

Best reaction

-18.9%

Q2 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+8.8%+10.3%+16.8%
Q4 2025+0.3%+6.0%-0.0%
Q3 2025-5.7%-6.9%-4.0%
Q2 2025-1.9%-0.4%+1.0%
Q1 2025-1.8%-2.8%-5.1%
Q4 2024-12.6%-11.2%-8.5%
Q3 2024-5.4%-7.4%-2.7%
Q2 2024-18.9%-14.7%-12.1%
Q1 2024-5.8%-3.4%-4.0%
Q4 2023-8.9%-6.7%-2.2%
Q3 2023+1.2%+0.3%-2.7%
Q2 2023-1.5%+1.0%-3.6%
Q1 2023+5.1%+6.2%+1.4%
Q4 2022+7.7%+2.9%+11.3%
Q3 2022-2.1%-3.2%-0.5%
Q2 2022+0.2%+2.5%+4.8%
Q1 2022-4.6%-4.9%-6.6%
Q4 2021-3.8%+0.7%+4.9%
Q3 2021-4.2%-3.1%-2.9%
Q2 2021+2.0%+2.7%+7.7%
Q1 2021+0.5%+0.7%-1.8%
Q4 2020-2.9%-3.2%+1.4%
Q3 2020-0.2%-0.8%+18.0%
Q2 2020-2.7%-3.3%+5.3%
Q1 2020-5.8%+0.3%+13.5%
Q4 2019+0.7%+3.1%-15.2%
Q3 2019-3.7%-4.3%-7.7%
Q2 2019+4.4%+2.8%+6.3%
Q1 2019-2.3%+0.8%+0.5%
Q4 2018+3.9%+5.7%+9.8%
Q3 2018+3.6%+11.6%+6.5%
Q2 2018+5.0%+4.3%+7.4%
Q1 2018-5.4%-5.7%-2.6%
Q4 2017+1.8%-1.6%-1.7%
Q3 2017+6.4%+5.7%+7.8%
Q2 2017-3.1%-1.3%-0.7%
Q1 2017+9.7%+7.1%+3.6%
Q4 2016+4.9%+5.0%+10.3%
Q3 2016-8.7%-7.2%+6.2%
Q2 2016+1.5%-1.1%-1.7%
Q1 2016+0.8%
Q4 2015+6.5%
Q3 2015+1.5%
Q2 2015+3.2%
Q1 2015-3.8%
Q4 2014-3.2%
Q3 2014+2.5%
Q2 2014-3.6%
Q1 2014+0.3%
Q4 2013-2.5%
Q3 2013-2.6%
Q2 2013+3.9%
Q1 2013-1.6%
Q4 2012+7.5%
Q3 2012-0.9%
Q2 2012-2.8%
Q4 2011-2.0%
Q1 2012+1.7%
Q3 2011+3.7%
Q2 2011-0.1%
Q1 2010+4.3%
Q1 2011+2.1%
Q4 2010+3.1%
Q4 2008+3.1%
Q3 2009-2.5%
Q3 2010-2.5%
Q4 2009+0.4%
Q2 2009+0.4%
Q2 2010+0.4%

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