NASDAQ$SIGI

Selective Insurance Group Inc · Q1 2024 earnings

Q1 2024 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Selective Insurance reported first quarter 2024 results with net income of $1.31 per diluted common share and non-GAAP operating income of $1.33 per diluted common share.

Selective Insurance Group, Inc. reported a strong first quarter in 2024, with a 16% increase in net premiums written and after-tax net investment income up 17%. The combined ratio was 98.2%, impacted by prior year casualty reserve development and catastrophe losses. The company is focused on disciplined underwriting and profitable growth strategies.

  • Net premiums written increased 16% compared to the first quarter of 2023.
  • The GAAP combined ratio was 98.2%, compared to 95.7% in the first quarter of 2023, impacted by prior year casualty reserve development and catastrophe losses.
  • Commercial Lines renewal pure price increases averaged 7.6%, up 0.6 points from the first quarter of 2023.
  • After-tax net investment income was $86 million, up 17% compared to the first quarter of 2023.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.16B

Previous: $1B+16.5%
EPS

$1.31

Previous: $1.44-9.0%
Combined Ratio

98.2%

Previous: 95.7%+2.6%
Std Commercial Lines Combined Ratio

98.8%

Previous: 94.7%+4.3%
Std Personal Lines Combined Ratio

105.1%

Previous: 116.0%-9.4%
E&S Lines Combined Ratio

87.6%

Previous: 85.0%+3.1%
Capital Expenditures

-$6.2M

Previous: -$5.51M-12.5%
Free Cash Flow

$76.3M

Previous: $87.1M-12.3%
Net Income

$82.5M

Previous: $92.6M-10.9%
Operating Income

$94.2M

Previous: $677M-86.1%
Gross Profit

$1.15B

Previous: $988M+16.4%
Stock-Based Comp

$10.1M

Previous: $7.72M+31.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Selective Insurance · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.16B

Q1 2024+16.5%vs Q1 2023
Beat estimate in 9 of 15 quarters(60%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Selective Insurance · $947M total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Standard Commercial Lines
    $834M+20.4%
  • Standard Personal Lines
    $113M+49.7%

Forward guidance

For 2024, the company increased its expectation for the GAAP combined ratio to 96.5%, including net catastrophe losses of 5.0 points. After-tax net investment income is expected to be $360 million, with an overall effective tax rate of approximately 21.0% and weighted average shares of 61.5 million on a fully diluted basis.

Tailwinds

  • After-tax net investment income of $360 million
  • Effective tax rate of 21.0%
  • Maintaining other full-year expectations
  • Combined ratio estimate assumes no additional prior year casualty reserve development
  • Net catastrophe losses of 5.0 points

Headwinds

  • GAAP combined ratio of 96.5%
  • Reflecting unfavorable prior year casualty reserve development
  • Current year loss cost increases in the first quarter
  • Challenging conditions in the economy, global capital markets, the banking sector, and commercial real estate
  • Deterioration in the public debt, public equity, or private investment markets that could lead to investment losses and interest rate fluctuations

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2024

Historical avgQ1 2024

-0.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.3%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.4%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

35 / 69 earnings

Positive

+9.7%

Q1 2017

Best reaction

-18.9%

Q2 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+8.8%+10.3%+16.8%
Q4 2025+0.3%+6.0%-0.0%
Q3 2025-5.7%-6.9%-4.0%
Q2 2025-1.9%-0.4%+1.0%
Q1 2025-1.8%-2.8%-5.1%
Q4 2024-12.6%-11.2%-8.5%
Q3 2024-5.4%-7.4%-2.7%
Q2 2024-18.9%-14.7%-12.1%
Q1 2024-5.8%-3.4%-4.0%
Q4 2023-8.9%-6.7%-2.2%
Q3 2023+1.2%+0.3%-2.7%
Q2 2023-1.5%+1.0%-3.6%
Q1 2023+5.1%+6.2%+1.4%
Q4 2022+7.7%+2.9%+11.3%
Q3 2022-2.1%-3.2%-0.5%
Q2 2022+0.2%+2.5%+4.8%
Q1 2022-4.6%-4.9%-6.6%
Q4 2021-3.8%+0.7%+4.9%
Q3 2021-4.2%-3.1%-2.9%
Q2 2021+2.0%+2.7%+7.7%
Q1 2021+0.5%+0.7%-1.8%
Q4 2020-2.9%-3.2%+1.4%
Q3 2020-0.2%-0.8%+18.0%
Q2 2020-2.7%-3.3%+5.3%
Q1 2020-5.8%+0.3%+13.5%
Q4 2019+0.7%+3.1%-15.2%
Q3 2019-3.7%-4.3%-7.7%
Q2 2019+4.4%+2.8%+6.3%
Q1 2019-2.3%+0.8%+0.5%
Q4 2018+3.9%+5.7%+9.8%
Q3 2018+3.6%+11.6%+6.5%
Q2 2018+5.0%+4.3%+7.4%
Q1 2018-5.4%-5.7%-2.6%
Q4 2017+1.8%-1.6%-1.7%
Q3 2017+6.4%+5.7%+7.8%
Q2 2017-3.1%-1.3%-0.7%
Q1 2017+9.7%+7.1%+3.6%
Q4 2016+4.9%+5.0%+10.3%
Q3 2016-8.7%-7.2%+6.2%
Q2 2016+1.5%-1.1%-1.7%
Q1 2016+0.8%
Q4 2015+6.5%
Q3 2015+1.5%
Q2 2015+3.2%
Q1 2015-3.8%
Q4 2014-3.2%
Q3 2014+2.5%
Q2 2014-3.6%
Q1 2014+0.3%
Q4 2013-2.5%
Q3 2013-2.6%
Q2 2013+3.9%
Q1 2013-1.6%
Q4 2012+7.5%
Q3 2012-0.9%
Q2 2012-2.8%
Q4 2011-2.0%
Q1 2012+1.7%
Q3 2011+3.7%
Q2 2011-0.1%
Q1 2010+4.3%
Q1 2011+2.1%
Q4 2010+3.1%
Q4 2008+3.1%
Q3 2009-2.5%
Q3 2010-2.5%
Q4 2009+0.4%
Q2 2009+0.4%
Q2 2010+0.4%

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