NASDAQ$SIGI

Selective Insurance Group Inc · Q2 2020 earnings

Q2 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Selective Insurance reported net income and non-GAAP operating income for Q2 2020.

Selective Insurance Group reported a decrease in net income per diluted share to $0.57 and non-GAAP operating income per diluted share to $0.40 for the second quarter ended June 30, 2020. The results were impacted by elevated catastrophe losses and a decline in alternative investment income, but the underlying profitability remained excellent with a combined ratio of 98.4%.

  • Net premiums written increased by 3% compared to the second quarter of 2019.
  • GAAP combined ratio was 98.4%.
  • Annualized return on equity was 6.2%, and non-GAAP operating ROE was 4.4%.
  • Overall renewal pure price increased by 3.9%.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$682M

Previous: $708M-3.6%
EPS (adj)

$0.40

Previous: $1.16-65.5%
Combined Ratio

98.4%

No prior period
Std Commercial Lines Combined Ratio

96.7%

No prior period
Std Personal Lines Combined Ratio

108.8%

No prior period
E&S Lines Combined Ratio

100.9%

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$12.6M

Previous: -$17M+25.6%
Free Cash Flow

$21.5M

Previous: $55.3M-61.0%
Net Income

$34.2M

Previous: $72.3M-52.7%
Operating Income

$44.3M

Previous: $85.8M-48.4%
Gross Profit

$676M

Previous: $699M-3.2%
Cash & Equivalents

$666K

Previous: $504K+32.1%
Total Assets

$9.31B

Previous: $8.58B+8.5%
Stock-Based Comp

$4.16M

Previous: $4.98M-16.4%

Revenue & EPS history

Selective Insurance · Revenue · Quarterly

$682M

Q2 2020-3.6%vs Q2 2019
Beat estimate in 12 of 16 quarters(75%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Selective Insurance · $725M total across 3 segments · Q2 2020

  • Standard Commercial Lines
    $583M
  • Standard Personal Lines
    $78.2M
  • Excess and Surplus Lines
    $63.2M

Forward guidance

Selective provided revised full-year guidance for 2020, reflecting the current estimated full-year impact of COVID-19.

Tailwinds

  • A GAAP combined ratio, excluding catastrophe losses, of between 90% and 91%, an improvement from the first quarter guidance.
  • After-tax net investment income of approximately $170 million, a $10 million improvement from the first quarter guidance.
  • Up to $5 million in after-tax net investment income from alternative investments is expected.
  • An overall effective tax rate of approximately 18.5% is anticipated.
  • Weighted average shares of 60.5 million on a diluted basis.

Headwinds

  • Guidance has a higher degree of uncertainty than prior years due to the dynamic and fluid nature of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • Potential reduction in premium and adverse impact on underwriting results due to voluntary premium credits and regulatory directives.
  • Possible increase in loss and loss expenses due to litigation or changes in statutory or common law related to COVID-19.
  • Potential impact on net investment income due to financial market volatility.
  • Catastrophe losses of 6.0 points on the combined ratio, reflecting higher than expected losses through the first half of the year.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2020

Historical avgQ2 2020

-0.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.3%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.4%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

35 / 69 earnings

Positive

+9.7%

Q1 2017

Best reaction

-18.9%

Q2 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+8.8%+10.3%+16.8%
Q4 2025+0.3%+6.0%-0.0%
Q3 2025-5.7%-6.9%-4.0%
Q2 2025-1.9%-0.4%+1.0%
Q1 2025-1.8%-2.8%-5.1%
Q4 2024-12.6%-11.2%-8.5%
Q3 2024-5.4%-7.4%-2.7%
Q2 2024-18.9%-14.7%-12.1%
Q1 2024-5.8%-3.4%-4.0%
Q4 2023-8.9%-6.7%-2.2%
Q3 2023+1.2%+0.3%-2.7%
Q2 2023-1.5%+1.0%-3.6%
Q1 2023+5.1%+6.2%+1.4%
Q4 2022+7.7%+2.9%+11.3%
Q3 2022-2.1%-3.2%-0.5%
Q2 2022+0.2%+2.5%+4.8%
Q1 2022-4.6%-4.9%-6.6%
Q4 2021-3.8%+0.7%+4.9%
Q3 2021-4.2%-3.1%-2.9%
Q2 2021+2.0%+2.7%+7.7%
Q1 2021+0.5%+0.7%-1.8%
Q4 2020-2.9%-3.2%+1.4%
Q3 2020-0.2%-0.8%+18.0%
Q2 2020-2.7%-3.3%+5.3%
Q1 2020-5.8%+0.3%+13.5%
Q4 2019+0.7%+3.1%-15.2%
Q3 2019-3.7%-4.3%-7.7%
Q2 2019+4.4%+2.8%+6.3%
Q1 2019-2.3%+0.8%+0.5%
Q4 2018+3.9%+5.7%+9.8%
Q3 2018+3.6%+11.6%+6.5%
Q2 2018+5.0%+4.3%+7.4%
Q1 2018-5.4%-5.7%-2.6%
Q4 2017+1.8%-1.6%-1.7%
Q3 2017+6.4%+5.7%+7.8%
Q2 2017-3.1%-1.3%-0.7%
Q1 2017+9.7%+7.1%+3.6%
Q4 2016+4.9%+5.0%+10.3%
Q3 2016-8.7%-7.2%+6.2%
Q2 2016+1.5%-1.1%-1.7%
Q1 2016+0.8%
Q4 2015+6.5%
Q3 2015+1.5%
Q2 2015+3.2%
Q1 2015-3.8%
Q4 2014-3.2%
Q3 2014+2.5%
Q2 2014-3.6%
Q1 2014+0.3%
Q4 2013-2.5%
Q3 2013-2.6%
Q2 2013+3.9%
Q1 2013-1.6%
Q4 2012+7.5%
Q3 2012-0.9%
Q2 2012-2.8%
Q4 2011-2.0%
Q1 2012+1.7%
Q3 2011+3.7%
Q2 2011-0.1%
Q1 2010+4.3%
Q1 2011+2.1%
Q4 2010+3.1%
Q4 2008+3.1%
Q3 2009-2.5%
Q3 2010-2.5%
Q4 2009+0.4%
Q2 2009+0.4%
Q2 2010+0.4%

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