NASDAQ$SIGI

Selective Insurance Group Inc · Q3 2022 earnings

Q3 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Selective Insurance reported third quarter 2022 results, with a net income of $0.66 per diluted common share and a non-GAAP operating income of $0.99 per diluted common share.

Selective Insurance Group reported a profitable third quarter with a combined ratio of 96.8%, driven by strong NPW growth across Standard Commercial Lines, Standard Personal Lines, and Excess & Surplus segments. The company effectively navigated through capital markets volatility and economic inflation, maintaining disciplined underwriting and risk-based pricing.

  • Net premiums written increased 11% compared to the third quarter of 2021.
  • GAAP combined ratio was a profitable 96.8%.
  • Commercial Lines renewal pure price increases averaged 5.8%, compared to 5.3% in the second quarter of 2022.
  • After-tax net investment income was $52 million, down 31% compared to the third quarter of 2021.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$895M

Previous: $865M+3.5%
EPS (adj)

$0.99

Previous: $1.18-16.1%
Combined Ratio

96.8%

Previous: 98.6%-1.8%
Std Commercial Lines Combined Ratio

96.8%

Previous: 97.2%-0.4%
Std Personal Lines Combined Ratio

101.8%

Previous: 115.2%-11.6%
E&S Lines Combined Ratio

93.0%

Previous: 93.7%-0.7%
Capital Expenditures

-$21.8M

Previous: -$15.1M-43.9%
Free Cash Flow

$20.8M

Previous: $58.6M-64.6%
Net Income

$42.5M

Previous: $73.7M-42.3%
Operating Income

$602M

Previous: $601M+0.2%
Gross Profit

$889M

Previous: $861M+3.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$10.5B

Previous: $34.8M+30140.9%
Total Assets

$10.5B

Previous: $10.4B+0.8%
Stock-Based Comp

$3.24M

Previous: $2.5M+29.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Selective Insurance · Revenue · Quarterly

$895M

Q3 2022+3.5%vs Q3 2021
Beat estimate in 9 of 15 quarters(60%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Selective Insurance · $768M total across 2 segments · Q3 2022

  • Standard Commercial Lines
    $692M+6.1%
  • Standard Personal Lines
    $75.6M-3.3%

Forward guidance

Selective Insurance provided full-year expectations, including a GAAP combined ratio, excluding net catastrophe losses, of 91.5%, net catastrophe losses of 3.5 points on the combined ratio, and after-tax net investment income of $215 million.

Tailwinds

  • GAAP combined ratio, excluding net catastrophe losses, of 91.5%.
  • Net catastrophe losses of 3.5 points on the combined ratio.
  • After-tax net investment income of $215 million.
  • Effective tax rate of approximately 20.5%.
  • Weighted average shares of 61 million on a fully diluted basis.

Headwinds

  • Difficult conditions in global capital markets and the economy, including the risk of prolonged higher inflation, could increase loss costs and negatively impact investment portfolios.
  • Deterioration in the public debt and equity markets and private investment marketplace that could lead to investment losses and interest rate fluctuations.
  • Ratings downgrades on individual securities we own could affect investment values and, therefore, statutory surplus.
  • The adequacy of our loss reserves and loss expense reserves.
  • Frequency and severity of catastrophic events, including natural events such as hurricanes, tornadoes, windstorms, earthquakes, hail, severe winter weather, floods, and fires and man-made events such as criminal and terrorist acts, including cyber-attacks, explosions, and civil unrest.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2022

Historical avgQ3 2022

-0.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.3%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.4%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

35 / 69 earnings

Positive

+9.7%

Q1 2017

Best reaction

-18.9%

Q2 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+8.8%+10.3%+16.8%
Q4 2025+0.3%+6.0%-0.0%
Q3 2025-5.7%-6.9%-4.0%
Q2 2025-1.9%-0.4%+1.0%
Q1 2025-1.8%-2.8%-5.1%
Q4 2024-12.6%-11.2%-8.5%
Q3 2024-5.4%-7.4%-2.7%
Q2 2024-18.9%-14.7%-12.1%
Q1 2024-5.8%-3.4%-4.0%
Q4 2023-8.9%-6.7%-2.2%
Q3 2023+1.2%+0.3%-2.7%
Q2 2023-1.5%+1.0%-3.6%
Q1 2023+5.1%+6.2%+1.4%
Q4 2022+7.7%+2.9%+11.3%
Q3 2022-2.1%-3.2%-0.5%
Q2 2022+0.2%+2.5%+4.8%
Q1 2022-4.6%-4.9%-6.6%
Q4 2021-3.8%+0.7%+4.9%
Q3 2021-4.2%-3.1%-2.9%
Q2 2021+2.0%+2.7%+7.7%
Q1 2021+0.5%+0.7%-1.8%
Q4 2020-2.9%-3.2%+1.4%
Q3 2020-0.2%-0.8%+18.0%
Q2 2020-2.7%-3.3%+5.3%
Q1 2020-5.8%+0.3%+13.5%
Q4 2019+0.7%+3.1%-15.2%
Q3 2019-3.7%-4.3%-7.7%
Q2 2019+4.4%+2.8%+6.3%
Q1 2019-2.3%+0.8%+0.5%
Q4 2018+3.9%+5.7%+9.8%
Q3 2018+3.6%+11.6%+6.5%
Q2 2018+5.0%+4.3%+7.4%
Q1 2018-5.4%-5.7%-2.6%
Q4 2017+1.8%-1.6%-1.7%
Q3 2017+6.4%+5.7%+7.8%
Q2 2017-3.1%-1.3%-0.7%
Q1 2017+9.7%+7.1%+3.6%
Q4 2016+4.9%+5.0%+10.3%
Q3 2016-8.7%-7.2%+6.2%
Q2 2016+1.5%-1.1%-1.7%
Q1 2016+0.8%
Q4 2015+6.5%
Q3 2015+1.5%
Q2 2015+3.2%
Q1 2015-3.8%
Q4 2014-3.2%
Q3 2014+2.5%
Q2 2014-3.6%
Q1 2014+0.3%
Q4 2013-2.5%
Q3 2013-2.6%
Q2 2013+3.9%
Q1 2013-1.6%
Q4 2012+7.5%
Q3 2012-0.9%
Q2 2012-2.8%
Q4 2011-2.0%
Q1 2012+1.7%
Q3 2011+3.7%
Q2 2011-0.1%
Q1 2010+4.3%
Q1 2011+2.1%
Q4 2010+3.1%
Q4 2008+3.1%
Q3 2009-2.5%
Q3 2010-2.5%
Q4 2009+0.4%
Q2 2009+0.4%
Q2 2010+0.4%

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