NASDAQ$SIGI

Selective Insurance Group Inc · Q3 2023 earnings

Q3 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Selective Insurance reported third quarter results with net income of $1.42 per diluted common share and non-GAAP operating income of $1.51 per diluted common share.

Selective Insurance Group, Inc. reported a strong third quarter with a non-GAAP operating ROE of 15.0%. Net premiums written increased by 17% and the combined ratio was 96.8%. The company is expanding its Commercial Lines footprint and remains focused on long-term, profitable growth.

  • Net premiums written increased 17% compared to the third quarter of 2022.
  • GAAP combined ratio was 96.8%, in line with the third quarter of 2022.
  • After-tax net investment income was $80 million, up 56% compared to the third quarter of 2022.
  • Non-GAAP operating ROE was 15.0% for the quarter.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.08B

Previous: $895M+20.8%
EPS (adj)

$1.51

Previous: $0.99+52.5%
Combined Ratio

96.8%

Previous: 96.8%+0.0%
Std Commercial Lines Combined Ratio

94.7%

Previous: 96.8%-2.2%
Std Personal Lines Combined Ratio

127.4%

Previous: 101.8%+25.1%
E&S Lines Combined Ratio

83.9%

Previous: 93.0%-9.8%
Capital Expenditures

-$14.8M

Previous: -$21.8M+32.1%
Free Cash Flow

$74.4M

Previous: $20.8M+258.5%
Net Income

$89.2M

Previous: $42.5M+109.8%
Operating Income

$760M

Previous: $602M+26.2%
Gross Profit

$1.08B

Previous: $889M+20.9%
Cash & Equivalents

$13.3M

Previous: $10.5B-99.9%
Total Assets

$11.4B

Previous: $10.5B+8.6%
Stock-Based Comp

$3.49M

Previous: $3.24M+7.8%

Revenue & EPS history

Selective Insurance · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.08B

Q3 2023+20.8%vs Q3 2022
Beat estimate in 9 of 15 quarters(60%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Selective Insurance · $947M total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Standard Commercial Lines
    $834M+20.4%
  • Standard Personal Lines
    $113M+49.7%

Forward guidance

For 2023, Selective expects a GAAP combined ratio of 96.5%, after-tax net investment income of $310 million, an overall effective tax rate of approximately 21%, and weighted average shares of 61 million on a fully diluted basis.

Tailwinds

  • GAAP combined ratio of 96.5%.
  • Net catastrophe losses of 6.5 points.
  • After-tax net investment income of $310 million.
  • Effective tax rate of 21% for all other items.
  • Weighted average shares of 61 million on a fully diluted basis.

Headwinds

  • Net catastrophe losses of 6.5 points, up from prior guidance of 6.0 points.
  • After-tax net investment income includes $20 million of after-tax net investment income from our alternative investments, down from our $30 million prior guidance.
  • Our combined ratio estimate assumes no additional prior-year casualty reserve development.
  • Challenging conditions in the economy, global capital markets, the banking sector, and commercial real estate, including prolonged higher inflation, could increase loss costs and negatively impact investment portfolios.
  • Deterioration in the public debt and equity markets and private investment marketplace that could lead to investment losses and interest rate fluctuations.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2023

Historical avgQ3 2023

-0.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.3%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.4%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

35 / 69 earnings

Positive

+9.7%

Q1 2017

Best reaction

-18.9%

Q2 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+8.8%+10.3%+16.8%
Q4 2025+0.3%+6.0%-0.0%
Q3 2025-5.7%-6.9%-4.0%
Q2 2025-1.9%-0.4%+1.0%
Q1 2025-1.8%-2.8%-5.1%
Q4 2024-12.6%-11.2%-8.5%
Q3 2024-5.4%-7.4%-2.7%
Q2 2024-18.9%-14.7%-12.1%
Q1 2024-5.8%-3.4%-4.0%
Q4 2023-8.9%-6.7%-2.2%
Q3 2023+1.2%+0.3%-2.7%
Q2 2023-1.5%+1.0%-3.6%
Q1 2023+5.1%+6.2%+1.4%
Q4 2022+7.7%+2.9%+11.3%
Q3 2022-2.1%-3.2%-0.5%
Q2 2022+0.2%+2.5%+4.8%
Q1 2022-4.6%-4.9%-6.6%
Q4 2021-3.8%+0.7%+4.9%
Q3 2021-4.2%-3.1%-2.9%
Q2 2021+2.0%+2.7%+7.7%
Q1 2021+0.5%+0.7%-1.8%
Q4 2020-2.9%-3.2%+1.4%
Q3 2020-0.2%-0.8%+18.0%
Q2 2020-2.7%-3.3%+5.3%
Q1 2020-5.8%+0.3%+13.5%
Q4 2019+0.7%+3.1%-15.2%
Q3 2019-3.7%-4.3%-7.7%
Q2 2019+4.4%+2.8%+6.3%
Q1 2019-2.3%+0.8%+0.5%
Q4 2018+3.9%+5.7%+9.8%
Q3 2018+3.6%+11.6%+6.5%
Q2 2018+5.0%+4.3%+7.4%
Q1 2018-5.4%-5.7%-2.6%
Q4 2017+1.8%-1.6%-1.7%
Q3 2017+6.4%+5.7%+7.8%
Q2 2017-3.1%-1.3%-0.7%
Q1 2017+9.7%+7.1%+3.6%
Q4 2016+4.9%+5.0%+10.3%
Q3 2016-8.7%-7.2%+6.2%
Q2 2016+1.5%-1.1%-1.7%
Q1 2016+0.8%
Q4 2015+6.5%
Q3 2015+1.5%
Q2 2015+3.2%
Q1 2015-3.8%
Q4 2014-3.2%
Q3 2014+2.5%
Q2 2014-3.6%
Q1 2014+0.3%
Q4 2013-2.5%
Q3 2013-2.6%
Q2 2013+3.9%
Q1 2013-1.6%
Q4 2012+7.5%
Q3 2012-0.9%
Q2 2012-2.8%
Q4 2011-2.0%
Q1 2012+1.7%
Q3 2011+3.7%
Q2 2011-0.1%
Q1 2010+4.3%
Q1 2011+2.1%
Q4 2010+3.1%
Q4 2008+3.1%
Q3 2009-2.5%
Q3 2010-2.5%
Q4 2009+0.4%
Q2 2009+0.4%
Q2 2010+0.4%

Discussion

Share your read of this quarter. Sign-in carries your eToro identity.

Join the conversation

Sign in with eToro to post your read of this quarter and vote on others'.

Sign in with eToro