NASDAQ$PBPB

Potbelly Corporation · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported strong fourth quarter and full year results driven by traffic growth and strategic initiatives.

Potbelly Corporation reported a 4.7% increase in total revenues for the fourth quarter, reaching $125.7 million, driven by a 6.3% increase in same-store sales and a 3.4% increase in Average Weekly Sales (AWS) to $24,960. GAAP net income attributable to Potbelly Corporation was $2.7 million, with diluted EPS of $0.09.

  • Total revenues increased by 4.7% to $125.7 million.
  • Same-store sales increased by 6.3%, driven by traffic growth.
  • GAAP net income attributable to Potbelly Corporation was $2.7 million, with diluted EPS of $0.09.
  • Adjusted EBITDA was $7.5 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$126M

Previous: $120M+4.7%
EPS (adj)

$0.02

Previous: $0.09-77.8%
Average Weekly Sales (AWS)

$25K

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$4.8M

Previous: $3.51M-236.7%
Net Income

$2.75M

Previous: $2.75M-0.1%
Operating Income

$2.19M

Previous: $3.24M-32.6%
Gross Profit

$19.5M

Previous: $36.3M-46.3%
Stock-Based Comp

$2.04M

Previous: $819K+149.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Potbelly · Revenue · Quarterly

$126M

Q4 2023+4.7%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 9 of 15 quarters(60%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Potbelly · $120M total across 2 segments · Q4 2022

  • Sandwich shop sales, net
    $119M
  • Franchise royalties, fees and rent income
    $1.12M

Forward guidance

Potbelly provided its first quarter and full year 2024 outlook, introducing new long-term growth ranges.

Tailwinds

  • Same Store Sales growth of (-0.25%) to +0.5% for Q1 2024 and Low- to Mid-Single Digit for FY2024
  • New Unit Growth ~10% for FY2024 and Low-Double Digit long-term
  • Adjusted EBITDA of $4.4M to $5.2M for Q1 2024 and High-Single to Low-Double Digit for FY2024
  • Long-Term Growth Ranges: Low- to Mid-Single Digit for Same Store Sales
  • Long-Term Growth Ranges: Low- to Mid-Double Digit for Adjusted EBITDA

Headwinds

  • Impact of refranchising 33 former company locations in 2023
  • 53rd week in 2023 will not recur in 2024
  • Increased costs associated with the Company’s investment in development efforts to support sustained franchise growth
  • A $1.1 million settlement gain in the first quarter 2024 with a third-party software provider
  • Effect of 2023 refranchising is most pronounced in the first three quarters of 2024

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 7 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

+0.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

+4.9%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.9%

Avg return

30 days after

49%

27 / 55 earnings

Positive

+19.0%

Q4 2014

Best reaction

-24.7%

Q1 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q3 2025
Q2 2025+13.1%+11.7%+10.0%
Q1 2025+18.2%+20.4%+27.1%
Q4 2024-18.2%-17.6%-25.3%
Q3 2024+18.5%+26.7%+19.0%
Q2 2024+8.4%+15.7%+13.7%
Q1 2024-5.9%-10.7%-18.5%
Q4 2023-3.9%-11.5%-19.7%
Q3 2023+9.7%
Q2 2023-4.7%
Q1 2023-14.7%
Q4 2022+9.4%
Q3 2022+2.9%
Q2 2022+2.7%
Q1 2022-5.4%
Q4 2021+6.9%
Q3 2021-0.2%
Q2 2021-0.8%
Q1 2021+17.2%
Q4 2020+3.6%
Q3 2020+0.0%
Q2 2020+18.7%
Q1 2020-24.7%
Q4 2019-3.3%
Q3 2019+11.5%
Q2 2019-9.5%
Q1 2019-22.5%
Q4 2018-0.5%
Q3 2018-9.0%
Q2 2018+1.2%
Q1 2018+5.7%
Q4 2017+8.4%
Q3 2017+2.6%
Q2 2017+0.5%
Q1 2017-17.9%
Q4 2016+4.2%
Q3 2016-3.4%
Q2 2016+2.6%
Q1 2016-6.8%
Q4 2015+15.9%
Q3 2015-0.5%
Q2 2015-10.2%
Q1 2015-2.1%
Q4 2014+19.0%
Q3 2014+9.1%
Q2 2014+3.5%
Q1 2013-2.7%
Q1 2014-2.2%
Q4 2011-2.4%
Q1 2012-2.4%
Q2 2013-2.4%
Q2 2012-2.4%
Q4 2013-9.5%
Q4 2012+0.4%
Q3 2012+0.4%
Q3 2013+13.9%

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