NASDAQ$PBPB

Potbelly Corporation · Q2 2021 earnings

Q2 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Potbelly's financial performance improved significantly in the second quarter of 2021, driven by strategic initiatives and recovery in the operating environment.

Potbelly Corporation reported strong financial results for the second quarter of 2021, with total revenues increasing by 24.9% to $97.5 million. The company experienced significant top-line growth, reflecting strengthening unit-level economics and benefits from strategic initiatives. GAAP net loss attributable to Potbelly was ($3.9) million, and adjusted diluted EPS was a loss of ($0.10).

  • Same-store sales trends showed sequential improvement, ending the second quarter at +70.0% compared to (3.1%) in the first quarter of 2021; approaching 2019 levels at (-0.7%).
  • Second consecutive quarter of shop-level profitability and 23.8% growth in Average Unit Volume (AUV) compared to the first quarter 2021.
  • Suburban shops, approximately 60% of units, continued to show strength with shop-level margin of 15.2%, slightly exceeding the 2019 average level across all shop types.
  • Potbelly Perks loyalty program showed strong results, adding 142,000 new members during the quarter, with Perks sales representing nearly 18% of total sales.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$97.5M

Previous: $56.2M+73.6%
EPS (adj)

-$0.10

Previous: -$0.63+84.1%
Capital Expenditures

-$3.33M

Previous: -$7.33M+54.5%
Free Cash Flow

-$8.79M

Previous: -$12.3M+28.3%
Net Income

-$3.88M

Previous: -$22.2M+82.5%
Operating Income

-$3.5M

Previous: -$21.9M+84.0%
Gross Profit

$25.6M

Previous: $3.52M+627.8%
Cash & Equivalents

$11.8M

Previous: $29.1M-59.3%
Total Assets

$265M

Previous: $327M-19.0%
Stock-Based Comp

$655K

Previous: $382K+71.5%

Revenue & EPS history

Potbelly · Revenue · Quarterly

$97.5M

Q2 2021+73.6%vs Q2 2020
Beat estimate in 12 of 16 quarters(75%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Potbelly · $120M total across 2 segments · Q4 2022

  • Sandwich shop sales, net
    $119M
  • Franchise royalties, fees and rent income
    $1.12M

Forward guidance

The company expects continued strength in comparable sales in Q3'21 and Q4'21, accelerated shop-level profitability, and the majority of Adjusted EBITDA to be generated in the second half of 2021, as well as enterprise-level profitability and positive cash flow from operations during the second half of the year excluding deferred expenses from 2020.

Tailwinds

  • Continued strength in comparable sales in Q3’21 and Q4’21
  • Accelerated shop-level profitability
  • Majority of Adjusted EBITDA to be generated in the second half of 2021
  • Enterprise-level profitability during the second half of the year excluding deferred expenses from 2020
  • Positive cash flow from operations during the second half of the year excluding deferred expenses from 2020

Headwinds

  • Risks related to the COVID-19 outbreak
  • Compliance with Credit Agreement covenants
  • Competition
  • General economic conditions
  • Changes in commodity, energy and other costs

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 7 quarterly earnings reports

Historical avg

+0.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

+4.9%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.9%

Avg return

30 days after

49%

27 / 55 earnings

Positive

+19.0%

Q4 2014

Best reaction

-24.7%

Q1 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q3 2025
Q2 2025+13.1%+11.7%+10.0%
Q1 2025+18.2%+20.4%+27.1%
Q4 2024-18.2%-17.6%-25.3%
Q3 2024+18.5%+26.7%+19.0%
Q2 2024+8.4%+15.7%+13.7%
Q1 2024-5.9%-10.7%-18.5%
Q4 2023-3.9%-11.5%-19.7%
Q3 2023+9.7%
Q2 2023-4.7%
Q1 2023-14.7%
Q4 2022+9.4%
Q3 2022+2.9%
Q2 2022+2.7%
Q1 2022-5.4%
Q4 2021+6.9%
Q3 2021-0.2%
Q2 2021-0.8%
Q1 2021+17.2%
Q4 2020+3.6%
Q3 2020+0.0%
Q2 2020+18.7%
Q1 2020-24.7%
Q4 2019-3.3%
Q3 2019+11.5%
Q2 2019-9.5%
Q1 2019-22.5%
Q4 2018-0.5%
Q3 2018-9.0%
Q2 2018+1.2%
Q1 2018+5.7%
Q4 2017+8.4%
Q3 2017+2.6%
Q2 2017+0.5%
Q1 2017-17.9%
Q4 2016+4.2%
Q3 2016-3.4%
Q2 2016+2.6%
Q1 2016-6.8%
Q4 2015+15.9%
Q3 2015-0.5%
Q2 2015-10.2%
Q1 2015-2.1%
Q4 2014+19.0%
Q3 2014+9.1%
Q2 2014+3.5%
Q1 2013-2.7%
Q1 2014-2.2%
Q4 2011-2.4%
Q1 2012-2.4%
Q2 2013-2.4%
Q2 2012-2.4%
Q4 2013-9.5%
Q4 2012+0.4%
Q3 2012+0.4%
Q3 2013+13.9%

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