NASDAQ$PBPB

Potbelly Corporation · Q1 2020 earnings

Q1 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Potbelly Corporation reported financial results for the first fiscal quarter ended March 29, 2020.

Potbelly Corporation reported a decrease in total revenues to $87.6 million compared to $98.1 million. Company-operated comparable store sales decreased 10.1%, while GAAP net loss attributable to Potbelly Corporation was $13.3 million or $0.56 per share. The company is focusing on off-premise and digital strategies to drive improving trends in the second quarter.

  • Total revenues decreased to $87.6 million from $98.1 million year-over-year.
  • Company-operated comparable store sales decreased 10.1%.
  • GAAP net loss attributable to Potbelly Corporation was $13.3 million, or $0.56 per share.
  • Adjusted net loss attributable to Potbelly Corporation was $7.7 million, or $0.32 per share.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$87.6M

Previous: $98.1M-10.7%
EPS (adj)

-$0.32

Previous: -$0.12-166.7%
Company-operated same-store sales

-10.1%

Previous: -4.7%-114.9%
Capital Expenditures

-$4.86M

Previous: -$2.57M-89.0%
Free Cash Flow

-$12.7M

Previous: -$4.95M-156.3%
Net Income

-$13.3M

Previous: -$18.4M+27.7%
Operating Income

-$17M

Previous: -$4.72M-259.6%
Gross Profit

$18M

Previous: $25.8M-30.2%
Cash & Equivalents

$45.8M

Previous: $13.8M+231.3%
Total Assets

$351M

Previous: $352M-0.1%
Stock-Based Comp

$490K

Previous: $459K+6.8%

Revenue & EPS history

Potbelly · Revenue · Quarterly

$87.6M

Q1 2020-10.7%vs Q1 2019
Beat estimate in 12 of 16 quarters(75%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Potbelly · $87.6M total across 2 segments · Q1 2020

  • Sandwich shop sales, net
    $87M
  • Franchise royalties, fees and rent income
    $629K

Forward guidance

Potbelly is taking steps to support and fortify its business, operating with a cash-preservation mindset. They are having proactive conversations with landlords, considering closing up to 100 shops, and implementing ways to work more effectively and efficiently. The company is seeing encouraging signs of recovery in their business as they move through the second quarter.

Tailwinds

  • Strategic investments in digital capabilities are proving critical.
  • Sales comps improved to -45% by the first week of May.
  • Accessibility is key, with options like delivery, pick-up, and curbside pick-up.
  • Innovations like Potbelly Pantry and Family Meals are having an impact.
  • Seeing encouraging signs of recovery in the second quarter.

Headwinds

  • Challenges will persist over the next several months.
  • Operating with a cash-preservation mindset.
  • Considering closing up to 100 shops.
  • Comparable same-store sales dropped to -68% in March.
  • Pandemic arrested the strong turnaround momentum.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 7 quarterly earnings reports

Historical avg

+0.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

+4.9%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.9%

Avg return

30 days after

49%

27 / 55 earnings

Positive

+19.0%

Q4 2014

Best reaction

-24.7%

Q1 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q3 2025
Q2 2025+13.1%+11.7%+10.0%
Q1 2025+18.2%+20.4%+27.1%
Q4 2024-18.2%-17.6%-25.3%
Q3 2024+18.5%+26.7%+19.0%
Q2 2024+8.4%+15.7%+13.7%
Q1 2024-5.9%-10.7%-18.5%
Q4 2023-3.9%-11.5%-19.7%
Q3 2023+9.7%
Q2 2023-4.7%
Q1 2023-14.7%
Q4 2022+9.4%
Q3 2022+2.9%
Q2 2022+2.7%
Q1 2022-5.4%
Q4 2021+6.9%
Q3 2021-0.2%
Q2 2021-0.8%
Q1 2021+17.2%
Q4 2020+3.6%
Q3 2020+0.0%
Q2 2020+18.7%
Q1 2020-24.7%
Q4 2019-3.3%
Q3 2019+11.5%
Q2 2019-9.5%
Q1 2019-22.5%
Q4 2018-0.5%
Q3 2018-9.0%
Q2 2018+1.2%
Q1 2018+5.7%
Q4 2017+8.4%
Q3 2017+2.6%
Q2 2017+0.5%
Q1 2017-17.9%
Q4 2016+4.2%
Q3 2016-3.4%
Q2 2016+2.6%
Q1 2016-6.8%
Q4 2015+15.9%
Q3 2015-0.5%
Q2 2015-10.2%
Q1 2015-2.1%
Q4 2014+19.0%
Q3 2014+9.1%
Q2 2014+3.5%
Q1 2013-2.7%
Q1 2014-2.2%
Q4 2011-2.4%
Q1 2012-2.4%
Q2 2013-2.4%
Q2 2012-2.4%
Q4 2013-9.5%
Q4 2012+0.4%
Q3 2012+0.4%
Q3 2013+13.9%

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