NASDAQ$PBPB

Potbelly Corporation · Q4 2019 earnings

Q4 2019 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Potbelly Corporation reported financial results for the fourth fiscal quarter and fiscal year ended December 29, 2019.

Potbelly Corporation reported total revenues of $101.8 million and a net loss attributable to Potbelly Corporation of $1.3 million for the fourth quarter of 2019. Company-operated comparable store sales were nearly flat at (0.1%).

  • Fourth quarter represented the best comparable same-store sales in over three years; third consecutive quarter of sequential same-store sales improvement.
  • Off-Premise & Digital channel produced record growth, resulting in a mix of 21.7%.
  • Menu optimization efforts grew average check by 410 basis points from full-year 2018 to full-year 2019.
  • Executed four new franchise deals, for 42 shops over the next 5-7 years, doubling the Company’s current franchise footprint.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$102M

Previous: $102M-0.6%
EPS (adj)

-$0.02

Previous: $0.05-140.0%
Company-operated same-store sales

-0.1%

Previous: -1.7%+94.1%
Capital Expenditures

$4.83M

Previous: $4.67M+3.4%
Free Cash Flow

$3.47M

Previous: $3.66M-5.2%
Net Income

-$1.23M

Previous: -$4.36M+71.9%
Operating Income

-$862K

Previous: -$5.37M+83.9%
Gross Profit

$28.8M

Previous: $28.4M+1.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$18.8M

Previous: $19.8M-4.9%
Total Assets

$333M

Previous: $153M+117.3%
Stock-Based Comp

$425K

Previous: $366K+16.1%

Revenue & EPS history

Potbelly · Revenue · Quarterly

$102M

Q4 2019-0.6%vs Q4 2018
Beat estimate in 13 of 16 quarters(81%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Potbelly · $120M total across 2 segments · Q4 2022

  • Sandwich shop sales, net
    $119M
  • Franchise royalties, fees and rent income
    $1.12M

Forward guidance

For the full fiscal year 2020, management currently expects a 0.5% to 2.0% increase in company-operated comparable store sales and adjusted EBITDA to be between $20.5 million and $25.5 million.

Tailwinds

  • Expect comps to be positive in the first quarter
  • Forecasting comps to range between positive 0.5% to 2.0% in fiscal 2020
  • Strategic initiatives to help to continue to significantly improve traffic trends moving forward
  • 2020 will be a year of capitalizing on momentum
  • Testing a series of new initiatives

Headwinds

  • Expect 8-10 total shop closures, all of which are company-operated shops
  • Cost of goods sold to be between 26.7% and 27.3%
  • Labor as a percentage of sales to be between 31.0% and 32.0%
  • Adjusted G&A expense to be between $44.0 million and $46.0 million
  • Streamlining path to sustainable, positive comp and traffic growth

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 7 quarterly earnings reports

Historical avg

+0.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

+4.9%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.9%

Avg return

30 days after

49%

27 / 55 earnings

Positive

+19.0%

Q4 2014

Best reaction

-24.7%

Q1 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q3 2025
Q2 2025+13.1%+11.7%+10.0%
Q1 2025+18.2%+20.4%+27.1%
Q4 2024-18.2%-17.6%-25.3%
Q3 2024+18.5%+26.7%+19.0%
Q2 2024+8.4%+15.7%+13.7%
Q1 2024-5.9%-10.7%-18.5%
Q4 2023-3.9%-11.5%-19.7%
Q3 2023+9.7%
Q2 2023-4.7%
Q1 2023-14.7%
Q4 2022+9.4%
Q3 2022+2.9%
Q2 2022+2.7%
Q1 2022-5.4%
Q4 2021+6.9%
Q3 2021-0.2%
Q2 2021-0.8%
Q1 2021+17.2%
Q4 2020+3.6%
Q3 2020+0.0%
Q2 2020+18.7%
Q1 2020-24.7%
Q4 2019-3.3%
Q3 2019+11.5%
Q2 2019-9.5%
Q1 2019-22.5%
Q4 2018-0.5%
Q3 2018-9.0%
Q2 2018+1.2%
Q1 2018+5.7%
Q4 2017+8.4%
Q3 2017+2.6%
Q2 2017+0.5%
Q1 2017-17.9%
Q4 2016+4.2%
Q3 2016-3.4%
Q2 2016+2.6%
Q1 2016-6.8%
Q4 2015+15.9%
Q3 2015-0.5%
Q2 2015-10.2%
Q1 2015-2.1%
Q4 2014+19.0%
Q3 2014+9.1%
Q2 2014+3.5%
Q1 2013-2.7%
Q1 2014-2.2%
Q4 2011-2.4%
Q1 2012-2.4%
Q2 2013-2.4%
Q2 2012-2.4%
Q4 2013-9.5%
Q4 2012+0.4%
Q3 2012+0.4%
Q3 2013+13.9%

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