NASDAQ$PBPB
Potbelly Corporation · Q4 2019 earnings
Q4 2019 earnings · · Investor relations
Briefing
Potbelly Corporation reported financial results for the fourth fiscal quarter and fiscal year ended December 29, 2019.
Potbelly Corporation reported total revenues of $101.8 million and a net loss attributable to Potbelly Corporation of $1.3 million for the fourth quarter of 2019. Company-operated comparable store sales were nearly flat at (0.1%).
- Fourth quarter represented the best comparable same-store sales in over three years; third consecutive quarter of sequential same-store sales improvement.
- Off-Premise & Digital channel produced record growth, resulting in a mix of 21.7%.
- Menu optimization efforts grew average check by 410 basis points from full-year 2018 to full-year 2019.
- Executed four new franchise deals, for 42 shops over the next 5-7 years, doubling the Company’s current franchise footprint.
Headline financials
Revenue & EPS history
Potbelly · Revenue · Quarterly
$102M
Revenue by segment
Potbelly · $120M total across 2 segments · Q4 2022
- Sandwich shop sales, net$119M—99.1%
- Franchise royalties, fees and rent income$1.12M—0.9%
Forward guidance
For the full fiscal year 2020, management currently expects a 0.5% to 2.0% increase in company-operated comparable store sales and adjusted EBITDA to be between $20.5 million and $25.5 million.
Tailwinds
- Expect comps to be positive in the first quarter
- Forecasting comps to range between positive 0.5% to 2.0% in fiscal 2020
- Strategic initiatives to help to continue to significantly improve traffic trends moving forward
- 2020 will be a year of capitalizing on momentum
- Testing a series of new initiatives
Headwinds
- Expect 8-10 total shop closures, all of which are company-operated shops
- Cost of goods sold to be between 26.7% and 27.3%
- Labor as a percentage of sales to be between 31.0% and 32.0%
- Adjusted G&A expense to be between $44.0 million and $46.0 million
- Streamlining path to sustainable, positive comp and traffic growth
Historical earnings impact
How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.
Avg. return before/after earnings
Based on 7 quarterly earnings reports
+0.7%
Avg return
Earnings day
+4.9%
Avg return
5 days after
+0.9%
Avg return
30 days after
49%
27 / 55 earnings
Positive
+19.0%
Q4 2014
Best reaction
-24.7%
Q1 2020
Worst reaction
| Quarter | Report date | Reaction (Day 0) | +5 days | +30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | — | — | — | |
| Q2 2025 | +13.1% | +11.7% | +10.0% | |
| Q1 2025 | +18.2% | +20.4% | +27.1% | |
| Q4 2024 | -18.2% | -17.6% | -25.3% | |
| Q3 2024 | +18.5% | +26.7% | +19.0% | |
| Q2 2024 | +8.4% | +15.7% | +13.7% | |
| Q1 2024 | -5.9% | -10.7% | -18.5% | |
| Q4 2023 | -3.9% | -11.5% | -19.7% | |
| Q3 2023 | +9.7% | — | — | |
| Q2 2023 | -4.7% | — | — | |
| Q1 2023 | -14.7% | — | — | |
| Q4 2022 | +9.4% | — | — | |
| Q3 2022 | +2.9% | — | — | |
| Q2 2022 | +2.7% | — | — | |
| Q1 2022 | -5.4% | — | — | |
| Q4 2021 | +6.9% | — | — | |
| Q3 2021 | -0.2% | — | — | |
| Q2 2021 | -0.8% | — | — | |
| Q1 2021 | +17.2% | — | — | |
| Q4 2020 | +3.6% | — | — | |
| Q3 2020 | +0.0% | — | — | |
| Q2 2020 | +18.7% | — | — | |
| Q1 2020 | -24.7% | — | — | |
| Q4 2019 | -3.3% | — | — | |
| Q3 2019 | +11.5% | — | — | |
| Q2 2019 | -9.5% | — | — | |
| Q1 2019 | -22.5% | — | — | |
| Q4 2018 | -0.5% | — | — | |
| Q3 2018 | -9.0% | — | — | |
| Q2 2018 | +1.2% | — | — | |
| Q1 2018 | +5.7% | — | — | |
| Q4 2017 | +8.4% | — | — | |
| Q3 2017 | +2.6% | — | — | |
| Q2 2017 | +0.5% | — | — | |
| Q1 2017 | -17.9% | — | — | |
| Q4 2016 | +4.2% | — | — | |
| Q3 2016 | -3.4% | — | — | |
| Q2 2016 | +2.6% | — | — | |
| Q1 2016 | -6.8% | — | — | |
| Q4 2015 | +15.9% | — | — | |
| Q3 2015 | -0.5% | — | — | |
| Q2 2015 | -10.2% | — | — | |
| Q1 2015 | -2.1% | — | — | |
| Q4 2014 | +19.0% | — | — | |
| Q3 2014 | +9.1% | — | — | |
| Q2 2014 | +3.5% | — | — | |
| Q1 2013 | -2.7% | — | — | |
| Q1 2014 | -2.2% | — | — | |
| Q4 2011 | -2.4% | — | — | |
| Q1 2012 | -2.4% | — | — | |
| Q2 2013 | -2.4% | — | — | |
| Q2 2012 | -2.4% | — | — | |
| Q4 2013 | -9.5% | — | — | |
| Q4 2012 | +0.4% | — | — | |
| Q3 2012 | +0.4% | — | — | |
| Q3 2013 | +13.9% | — | — |
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