NASDAQ$PBPB

Potbelly Corporation · Q1 2021 earnings

Q1 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Sales momentum accelerated with strategic initiatives, operational improvements, and macroeconomic recovery, shop-level profitability was achieved ahead of expectations, and company positioned for a strong second half.

Potbelly Corporation reported financial results for the first fiscal quarter ended March 28, 2021, showing a 4.3% increase in total revenues to $78.1 million compared to $74.9 million. The company achieved shop-level profitability and expects to be cash flow positive by the end of the third quarter. Same-store sales trends improved to (3.1%).

  • Same-store sales trends continued to show sequential improvement, ending the first quarter at (3.1%), compared to (19.7%) in the fourth quarter of 2020.
  • Returned to profitability at the shop level for the quarter and ahead of previous forecast.
  • Potbelly Perks loyalty program added 132,000 new members during the quarter, with Perks sales increasing 11% on a year-over-year basis.
  • Successful execution of $16 million private placement and amendment of credit facility during the quarter solidifies liquidity position.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$78.1M

Previous: $87.6M-10.9%
EPS (adj)

-$0.33

Previous: -$0.32-3.1%
Company-operated same-store sales

-3.1%

Previous: -10.1%+69.3%
Capital Expenditures

-$1.3M

Previous: -$4.86M+73.3%
Free Cash Flow

-$11M

Previous: -$12.7M+13.2%
Net Income

-$14.5M

Previous: -$13.3M-8.5%
Operating Income

-$14.1M

Previous: -$17M+16.8%
Gross Profit

$14.4M

Previous: $18M-20.1%
Cash & Equivalents

$11.5M

Previous: $45.8M-74.9%
Total Assets

$270M

Previous: $351M-23.1%
Stock-Based Comp

$193K

Previous: $490K-60.6%

Revenue & EPS history

Potbelly · Revenue · Quarterly

$78.1M

Q1 2021-10.9%vs Q1 2020
Beat estimate in 12 of 16 quarters(75%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Potbelly · $78.1M total across 2 segments · Q1 2021

  • Sandwich shop sales, net
    $77.5M-10.9%
  • Franchise royalties, fees and rent income
    $562K-10.7%

Forward guidance

Potbelly expects sequential improvement in top-line results throughout each quarter of fiscal 2021. The majority of operating earnings and Adjusted EBITDA are expected to be generated in the second half of 2021. The company expects to deliver enterprise-level profitability as well as positive cash flow during the second half of the year.

Tailwinds

  • Sequential improvement in top-line results throughout each quarter of fiscal 2021.
  • Majority of operating earnings and Adjusted EBITDA are expected to be generated in the second half of 2021.
  • Expectation to deliver enterprise-level profitability during the second half of 2021.
  • Expectation of positive cash flow during the second half of 2021.
  • Strong balance sheet and solid liquidity foundation.

Headwinds

  • Risks related to the COVID-19 outbreak.
  • Compliance with Credit Agreement covenants.
  • Competition in the market.
  • General economic conditions.
  • Potential changes in commodity, energy, and other costs.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 7 quarterly earnings reports

Historical avg

+0.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

+4.9%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.9%

Avg return

30 days after

49%

27 / 55 earnings

Positive

+19.0%

Q4 2014

Best reaction

-24.7%

Q1 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q3 2025
Q2 2025+13.1%+11.7%+10.0%
Q1 2025+18.2%+20.4%+27.1%
Q4 2024-18.2%-17.6%-25.3%
Q3 2024+18.5%+26.7%+19.0%
Q2 2024+8.4%+15.7%+13.7%
Q1 2024-5.9%-10.7%-18.5%
Q4 2023-3.9%-11.5%-19.7%
Q3 2023+9.7%
Q2 2023-4.7%
Q1 2023-14.7%
Q4 2022+9.4%
Q3 2022+2.9%
Q2 2022+2.7%
Q1 2022-5.4%
Q4 2021+6.9%
Q3 2021-0.2%
Q2 2021-0.8%
Q1 2021+17.2%
Q4 2020+3.6%
Q3 2020+0.0%
Q2 2020+18.7%
Q1 2020-24.7%
Q4 2019-3.3%
Q3 2019+11.5%
Q2 2019-9.5%
Q1 2019-22.5%
Q4 2018-0.5%
Q3 2018-9.0%
Q2 2018+1.2%
Q1 2018+5.7%
Q4 2017+8.4%
Q3 2017+2.6%
Q2 2017+0.5%
Q1 2017-17.9%
Q4 2016+4.2%
Q3 2016-3.4%
Q2 2016+2.6%
Q1 2016-6.8%
Q4 2015+15.9%
Q3 2015-0.5%
Q2 2015-10.2%
Q1 2015-2.1%
Q4 2014+19.0%
Q3 2014+9.1%
Q2 2014+3.5%
Q1 2013-2.7%
Q1 2014-2.2%
Q4 2011-2.4%
Q1 2012-2.4%
Q2 2013-2.4%
Q2 2012-2.4%
Q4 2013-9.5%
Q4 2012+0.4%
Q3 2012+0.4%
Q3 2013+13.9%

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