NASDAQ$PBPB

Potbelly Corporation · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported strong Q4 2022 results with same-store-sales up and record AUVs.

Potbelly Corporation reported strong Q4 2022 results, with a 17% increase in total revenues to $120.2 million and same-store sales up 18.9%. The company achieved an operating income of $3.2 million and a GAAP net income of $2.7 million, driven by shop-level margin expansion. Adjusted EBITDA improved to $7.5 million, marking the third consecutive quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA.

  • Total revenues increased by 17% to $120.2 million.
  • Same-store sales increased by 18.9%, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of positive growth.
  • Operating income reached $3.2 million with shop-level margin expansion to 14.2%.
  • GAAP net income attributable to Potbelly Corporation was $2.7 million, a significant improvement from the previous year's net loss.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$120M

Previous: $103M+16.9%
EPS (adj)

$0.09

Previous: -$0.06+250.0%
Capital Expenditures

$3.51M

Previous: $1.51M+133.4%
Free Cash Flow

$7.95M

Previous: $760K+945.5%
Net Income

$2.75M

Previous: -$2.48M+210.9%
Operating Income

$3.24M

Previous: -$2.25M+244.2%
Gross Profit

$36.3M

Previous: $27.1M+33.7%
Cash & Equivalents

$15.6M

Previous: $14.4M+8.8%
Total Assets

$245M

Previous: $253M-3.2%
Stock-Based Comp

$819K

Previous: $649K+26.2%

Revenue & EPS history

Potbelly · Revenue · Quarterly

$120M

Q4 2022+16.9%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 9 of 15 quarters(60%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Potbelly · $120M total across 2 segments · Q4 2022

  • Sandwich shop sales, net
    $119M
  • Franchise royalties, fees and rent income
    $1.12M

Forward guidance

Potbelly provided its outlook for the first quarter and full year 2023, anticipating continued growth and momentum.

Tailwinds

  • AUVs are projected to be between $23,000 and $24,000 for Q1 2023.
  • Expects record AUVs for fiscal year 2023
  • Same-store sales are expected to grow between 18.5% and 20.5% for Q1 2023.
  • High single-digit growth in same-store sales for fiscal year 2023.
  • Adjusted EBITDA is projected to be $4-5 million for Q1 2023.

Headwinds

  • Shop-level margin is expected to be between 10.0% and 11.5% for Q1 2023.
  • Low teens shop-level margin for fiscal year 2023
  • No specific negative aspects were provided in the outlook summary.
  • No specific negative aspects were provided in the outlook summary.
  • No specific negative aspects were provided in the outlook summary.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 7 quarterly earnings reports

Historical avg

+0.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

+4.9%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.9%

Avg return

30 days after

49%

27 / 55 earnings

Positive

+19.0%

Q4 2014

Best reaction

-24.7%

Q1 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q3 2025
Q2 2025+13.1%+11.7%+10.0%
Q1 2025+18.2%+20.4%+27.1%
Q4 2024-18.2%-17.6%-25.3%
Q3 2024+18.5%+26.7%+19.0%
Q2 2024+8.4%+15.7%+13.7%
Q1 2024-5.9%-10.7%-18.5%
Q4 2023-3.9%-11.5%-19.7%
Q3 2023+9.7%
Q2 2023-4.7%
Q1 2023-14.7%
Q4 2022+9.4%
Q3 2022+2.9%
Q2 2022+2.7%
Q1 2022-5.4%
Q4 2021+6.9%
Q3 2021-0.2%
Q2 2021-0.8%
Q1 2021+17.2%
Q4 2020+3.6%
Q3 2020+0.0%
Q2 2020+18.7%
Q1 2020-24.7%
Q4 2019-3.3%
Q3 2019+11.5%
Q2 2019-9.5%
Q1 2019-22.5%
Q4 2018-0.5%
Q3 2018-9.0%
Q2 2018+1.2%
Q1 2018+5.7%
Q4 2017+8.4%
Q3 2017+2.6%
Q2 2017+0.5%
Q1 2017-17.9%
Q4 2016+4.2%
Q3 2016-3.4%
Q2 2016+2.6%
Q1 2016-6.8%
Q4 2015+15.9%
Q3 2015-0.5%
Q2 2015-10.2%
Q1 2015-2.1%
Q4 2014+19.0%
Q3 2014+9.1%
Q2 2014+3.5%
Q1 2013-2.7%
Q1 2014-2.2%
Q4 2011-2.4%
Q1 2012-2.4%
Q2 2013-2.4%
Q2 2012-2.4%
Q4 2013-9.5%
Q4 2012+0.4%
Q3 2012+0.4%
Q3 2013+13.9%

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