NASDAQ$PBPB

Potbelly Corporation · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Potbelly's Q4 2020 financial performance was marked by sequential revenue growth and strategic advancements amidst pandemic challenges.

Potbelly Corporation reported a 3% sequential increase in total revenues to $74.9 million for the fourth quarter of 2020. The company's same-store sales improved by 130 basis points sequentially to (19.7%). Despite these improvements, Potbelly reported a GAAP net loss of ($16.4) million, or ($0.68) per share, and an adjusted net loss of ($13.7) million, or ($0.57) per share.

  • Total revenues increased 3% sequentially to $74.9 million.
  • Same-store sales trends finished the fourth quarter at (19.7%), a 130-basis point improvement from the third quarter.
  • GAAP net loss attributable to Potbelly Corporation was ($16.4) million, or ($0.68) per share.
  • Non-catering digital sales comprised 35.8% of total Company sales compared to 12.8% last year.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$74.9M

Previous: $102M-26.4%
EPS (adj)

-$0.57

Previous: -$0.02-2750.0%
Capital Expenditures

$2.22M

Previous: $4.83M-54.1%
Free Cash Flow

-$6.08M

Previous: $3.47M-275.2%
Net Income

-$16.5M

Previous: -$1.23M-1248.3%
Operating Income

-$16.1M

Previous: -$862K-1770.3%
Gross Profit

$13.3M

Previous: $28.8M-54.0%
Cash & Equivalents

$11.1M

Previous: $18.8M-40.8%
Total Assets

$283M

Previous: $333M-14.9%
Stock-Based Comp

$35K

Previous: $425K-91.8%

Revenue & EPS history

Potbelly · Revenue · Quarterly

$74.9M

Q4 2020-26.4%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 12 of 16 quarters(75%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Potbelly · $74.9M total across 2 segments · Q4 2020

  • Sandwich shop sales, net
    $74.3M
  • Franchise royalties, fees and rent income
    $542K

Forward guidance

Potbelly Corporation anticipates sequential improvement in top-line results throughout each quarter of fiscal 2021 and expects the majority of operating earnings and Adjusted EBITDA during the second half of 2021, supporting both shop-level and enterprise-level profitability, as well as positive cash flow.

Tailwinds

  • Expect the recovery of our business and shops to track the rate of vaccinations and increased dining room re-openings as pandemic conditions recede.
  • Expect that our strategic initiatives will build momentum throughout the year.
  • Expect to see sequential improvement in our top-line results throughout each quarter of fiscal 2021.
  • Anticipate that we will generate the majority of our operating earnings and Adjusted EBITDA during the second half of 2021.
  • Strategic initiatives and economic recovery expected to support sequential quarterly improvement in performance and return to positive cash flow and enterprise profitability in second half of 2021

Headwinds

  • Company remains focused on furthering a culture of vigilant cost discipline.
  • Company remains focused on driving additional operational efficiencies.
  • Company remains focused on advancing the five pillars of our new strategy to accelerate Potbelly’s future growth.
  • COVID-19 related impacts, which significantly impacted the overall business.
  • Weekly cash burn decreased from the targeted $0.50 million per week average to $0.44 million, driven by retimed lease repayments, but including restructuring costs and deferred salary repayment.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 7 quarterly earnings reports

Historical avg

+0.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

+4.9%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.9%

Avg return

30 days after

49%

27 / 55 earnings

Positive

+19.0%

Q4 2014

Best reaction

-24.7%

Q1 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q3 2025
Q2 2025+13.1%+11.7%+10.0%
Q1 2025+18.2%+20.4%+27.1%
Q4 2024-18.2%-17.6%-25.3%
Q3 2024+18.5%+26.7%+19.0%
Q2 2024+8.4%+15.7%+13.7%
Q1 2024-5.9%-10.7%-18.5%
Q4 2023-3.9%-11.5%-19.7%
Q3 2023+9.7%
Q2 2023-4.7%
Q1 2023-14.7%
Q4 2022+9.4%
Q3 2022+2.9%
Q2 2022+2.7%
Q1 2022-5.4%
Q4 2021+6.9%
Q3 2021-0.2%
Q2 2021-0.8%
Q1 2021+17.2%
Q4 2020+3.6%
Q3 2020+0.0%
Q2 2020+18.7%
Q1 2020-24.7%
Q4 2019-3.3%
Q3 2019+11.5%
Q2 2019-9.5%
Q1 2019-22.5%
Q4 2018-0.5%
Q3 2018-9.0%
Q2 2018+1.2%
Q1 2018+5.7%
Q4 2017+8.4%
Q3 2017+2.6%
Q2 2017+0.5%
Q1 2017-17.9%
Q4 2016+4.2%
Q3 2016-3.4%
Q2 2016+2.6%
Q1 2016-6.8%
Q4 2015+15.9%
Q3 2015-0.5%
Q2 2015-10.2%
Q1 2015-2.1%
Q4 2014+19.0%
Q3 2014+9.1%
Q2 2014+3.5%
Q1 2013-2.7%
Q1 2014-2.2%
Q4 2011-2.4%
Q1 2012-2.4%
Q2 2013-2.4%
Q2 2012-2.4%
Q4 2013-9.5%
Q4 2012+0.4%
Q3 2012+0.4%
Q3 2013+13.9%

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