NASDAQ$OTTR

Otter Tail Corporation · Q1 2020 earnings

Q1 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Announced first quarter earnings, with electric and plastics segments' guidance remaining largely unchanged. Revised 2020 earnings per share guidance range was driven by Coronavirus (COVID-19) impacts on the manufacturing segment.

Otter Tail Corporation reported a decrease in consolidated operating revenues by 4.6% to $234.7 million, and a decrease in consolidated net income to $24.3 million, or $0.60 per share, compared to the first quarter of 2019. The corporation revised its 2020 earnings per share guidance range to $2.00-$2.25 from $2.22-$2.37.

  • Consolidated operating revenues decreased 4.6% to $234.7 million.
  • Consolidated net income and diluted earnings per share were $24.3 million and $0.60 per share, respectively.
  • Milder weather during the quarter accounted for a $0.09 reduction in diluted earnings per share.
  • The corporation revises its 2020 earnings per share guidance range to $2.00-$2.25 from $2.22-$2.37.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$235M

Previous: $246M-4.6%
EPS (adj)

$0.60

Previous: $0.66-9.1%
Net Income

$24.3M

Previous: $26.3M-7.7%
Operating Income

$35.8M

Previous: $39.6M-9.5%
Gross Profit

$63.8M

No prior period
Cash & Equivalents

$47.8M

Previous: $891K+5264.8%
Total Assets

$2.31B

Previous: $2.1B+9.6%
Stock-Based Comp

$2.77M

Previous: $1.8M+54.2%

Revenue & EPS history

Otter Tail · Revenue · Quarterly

$235M

Q1 2020-4.6%vs Q1 2019
Beat estimate in 10 of 16 quarters(63%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Otter Tail · $241M total across 3 segments · Q1 2020

  • Electric
    $149M
  • Manufacturing
    $58M
  • Plastics
    $33.4M

Forward guidance

The corporation revised and widened its 2020 diluted earnings per share guidance mainly due to the anticipated effects of the COVID-19 outbreak and the measures put in place to slow its spread. They now expect their 2020 diluted earnings per share to be in the range of $2.00 to $2.25 compared to their previously announced guidance of $2.22 to $2.37.

Tailwinds

  • Capital spending on the Merricourt and Astoria Station rate base projects of $178 million and $81 million, respectively, in 2020.
  • The Merricourt project has rider recovery mechanisms in place in all three state jurisdictions.
  • The Astoria Station project has rider recovery mechanisms in place in South Dakota and North Dakota.
  • Increased revenues related to $22 million in anticipated capital spending for self-funded generator interconnection agreements.
  • No planned generation plant outages for 2020.

Headwinds

  • The impact of unfavorable weather during the first quarter of 2020 and anticipated normal weather for the remaining months of 2020.
  • Increased expenses caused in large part by a decrease in the discount rate used for the pension plan and a lower rate used for our long-term rate of return.
  • Higher depreciation and property tax expense due to large capital projects being put into service.
  • Increased interest costs associated with a full year’s interest expense on the $100 million of senior unsecured notes issued in October 2019 and interest on the $35 million and $40 million of senior unsecured notes issued in February and expected to be issued in August of 2020, respectively.
  • Reductions in commercial and industrial demand related to the negative impacts of COVID-19 as some customers in our jurisdictions have had to either completely shut down operations or curtail operations given reduced demands for their products and services.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2020

Historical avgQ1 2020

+0.8%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.9%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.7%

Avg return

30 days after

56%

38 / 68 earnings

Positive

+11.5%

Q2 2022

Best reaction

-10.6%

Q3 2019

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-2.0%-0.6%-2.3%
Q4 2025-1.7%-3.6%-0.7%
Q3 2025+5.4%+8.4%+6.0%
Q1 2025+1.1%+3.7%+2.2%
Q4 2024+6.1%+5.8%+7.0%
Q3 2024+4.4%+1.2%+2.4%
Q2 2024-3.9%-3.5%-14.1%
Q1 2024+2.8%+5.8%+2.6%
Q4 2023-9.1%-8.1%-16.5%
Q3 2023+9.3%+17.8%+5.9%
Q2 2023+9.8%+10.9%+3.6%
Q1 2023+7.2%+9.1%+3.1%
Q4 2022-4.4%+11.3%+7.9%
Q3 2022-9.3%-18.9%-13.2%
Q2 2022+11.5%+7.8%+7.5%
Q1 2022+5.1%+7.5%+14.6%
Q4 2021-0.0%+0.1%+3.3%
Q3 2021+1.6%+6.1%+5.5%
Q2 2021+5.1%+5.3%+9.2%
Q1 2021+1.9%+3.6%+2.3%
Q4 2020-2.3%-0.8%+7.3%
Q3 2020+10.8%+3.8%+6.5%
Q2 2020+1.4%+8.7%+1.4%
Q1 2020-5.0%+0.0%-3.7%
Q4 2019-0.6%+1.2%-26.4%
Q3 2019-10.6%-13.8%-14.0%
Q2 2019-2.6%-0.8%-2.8%
Q1 2019-3.2%-3.3%-1.6%
Q4 2018+0.5%-0.6%-2.4%
Q3 2018+5.6%+7.7%+6.6%
Q2 2018+0.4%+0.3%-0.1%
Q1 2018-1.0%-0.2%+1.9%
Q4 2017+0.8%+1.8%+2.9%
Q3 2017+1.6%-0.1%+4.2%
Q2 2017+3.7%+1.9%+4.0%
Q1 2017+0.0%-2.9%+1.1%
Q4 2016-1.9%-0.6%-6.0%
Q3 2016-1.7%+0.7%+9.2%
Q2 2016+0.7%+0.5%+3.2%
Q1 2016+4.2%
Q4 2015-1.8%
Q3 2015-3.7%
Q2 2015+8.0%
Q1 2015-5.0%
Q4 2014+0.9%
Q3 2014-0.6%
Q2 2014-2.1%
Q1 2014-0.6%
Q4 2013+10.1%
Q3 2013+2.9%
Q2 2013-6.3%
Q1 2013-0.3%
Q4 2012+0.7%
Q3 2012+3.6%
Q2 2012+0.2%
Q1 2012+2.8%
Q4 2011-1.8%
Q3 2011-1.1%
Q2 2011+6.7%
Q1 2010-2.3%
Q1 2011+0.5%
Q4 2010-1.3%
Q4 2008-1.3%
Q3 2010+0.6%
Q3 2009+0.6%
Q2 2010+1.4%
Q2 2009+1.4%
Q4 2009+1.4%

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