NASDAQ$LOPE

Grand Canyon Education Inc. · Q4 2024 earnings

Q4 2024 earnings · · After market close · Investor relations

Briefing

Grand Canyon Education reported an increase in revenue and earnings for Q4 2024, driven by higher enrollments and improved revenue per student.

Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (GCE) reported strong financial performance for Q4 2024, with service revenue increasing by 5.1% year-over-year to $292.6 million. Net income rose by 1.4% to $81.9 million, while diluted EPS improved to $2.84. Operating income grew to $100.0 million, although the operating margin slightly declined. Adjusted EPS stood at $2.95, reflecting continued enrollment growth and expansion of off-campus sites.

  • Service revenue increased by 5.1% year-over-year to $292.6 million.
  • Net income rose by 1.4% to $81.9 million, with diluted EPS at $2.84.
  • Operating income increased to $100.0 million, but operating margin declined to 34.2%.
  • Adjusted EPS reached $2.95, driven by enrollment growth and expansion of off-campus sites.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$293M

Previous: $278M+5.1%
EPS (adj)

$2.95

Previous: $2.77+6.5%
University Partner Enrollments

127.2K

Previous: 121.3K+4.9%
GCU Enrollments

123.2K

No prior period
Off-Campus Enrollments

4.9K

Previous: 4.5K+9.8%
GCU Ground Enrollments

24.6K

No prior period
GCU Online Enrollments

98.6K

No prior period
Adjusted EBITDA

$117M

No prior period
Operating Margin

34.2%

No prior period
Effective Tax Rate

21.2%

No prior period
Net Income

$81.9M

Previous: $80.7M+1.4%
Operating Income

$100M

Previous: $97.8M+2.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Grand Canyon Education · Revenue · Quarterly

$293M

Q4 2024+5.1%vs Q4 2023
Beat estimate in 9 of 15 quarters(60%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Grand Canyon Education · $222M total across 1 segment · Q3 2023

  • Service Revenue
    $222M+6.3%

Forward guidance

GCE expects continued revenue growth driven by increasing enrollments and higher revenue per student, while maintaining a strong operating margin.

Tailwinds

  • Q1 2025 revenue projected between $286.5M and $287.5M.
  • Q1 2025 operating margin expected between 30.0% and 30.2%.
  • Q1 2025 adjusted EPS guidance between $2.50 and $2.52.
  • Expansion of off-campus sites continues to drive growth.
  • Strong liquidity position with increased cash reserves.

Headwinds

  • Operating margin slightly lower compared to prior periods.
  • Effective tax rate expected to rise to 22.2% in Q1 2025.
  • Revenue per student may be affected by contract modifications.
  • Potential impact from regulatory and legal challenges.
  • Market competition remains a key risk factor.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2024

Historical avgQ4 2024

+3.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

+2.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.5%

Avg return

30 days after

65%

42 / 65 earnings

Positive

+21.9%

Q2 2012

Best reaction

-16.0%

Q1 2021

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+0.1%-2.7%-11.4%
Q4 2025-7.9%-6.5%-3.2%
Q3 2025-6.2%-5.2%-14.0%
Q1 2025+4.5%+5.5%+4.7%
Q4 2024+1.8%-3.6%-8.3%
Q3 2024+17.0%+22.0%+20.1%
Q2 2024-3.5%-2.6%-3.5%
Q1 2024+6.3%+7.6%+4.2%
Q4 2023+0.5%-1.4%-0.3%
Q3 2023+14.2%+13.8%+14.7%
Q2 2023+5.5%+1.5%+9.1%
Q1 2023-3.7%-6.6%-12.7%
Q4 2022+1.6%+3.0%-5.9%
Q3 2022+16.4%+17.3%+29.5%
Q2 2022-12.2%-14.0%-15.9%
Q1 2022+3.9%-3.0%-6.5%
Q4 2021+2.4%+5.8%+21.9%
Q3 2021-9.4%-9.5%-14.1%
Q2 2021-2.5%-2.7%-0.8%
Q1 2021-16.0%-11.7%-16.3%
Q4 2020+2.1%+2.7%+5.4%
Q3 2020-0.4%+2.3%+4.9%
Q2 2020+12.0%+10.3%+3.0%
Q1 2020+7.2%+9.2%+16.5%
Q4 2019-4.3%-6.2%-29.2%
Q3 2019-4.1%-4.1%-3.5%
Q2 2019+5.7%+8.5%-0.1%
Q1 2019-4.2%-1.8%+7.1%
Q4 2018+21.7%+19.8%+17.5%
Q3 2018-0.9%-2.8%-12.0%
Q2 2018-3.2%-2.7%-0.8%
Q1 2018+6.9%+5.4%+9.9%
Q4 2017+9.0%+10.6%+12.9%
Q3 2017-0.7%-0.7%+4.0%
Q2 2017+8.8%+10.2%+11.5%
Q1 2017+4.2%+6.0%+7.8%
Q4 2016+5.8%+5.0%+19.8%
Q3 2016+8.6%+11.2%+31.7%
Q2 2016+4.9%+4.8%-0.3%
Q1 2016-4.6%
Q4 2015+12.0%
Q3 2015+7.2%
Q2 2015-5.3%
Q1 2015+1.2%
Q4 2014+5.2%
Q3 2014+9.3%
Q2 2014-4.2%
Q1 2014+6.9%
Q4 2013+2.5%
Q3 2013+11.3%
Q2 2013-4.7%
Q1 2013+13.4%
Q4 2012+5.4%
Q3 2012+12.3%
Q2 2012+21.9%
Q1 2012+10.3%
Q4 2011-3.0%
Q4 2009-3.0%
Q3 2011-3.0%
Q3 2010-3.0%
Q2 2010+8.8%
Q2 2011+8.8%
Q1 2010+5.3%
Q4 2010+5.3%
Q1 2011+5.3%

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