NASDAQ$LOPE

Grand Canyon Education Inc. · Q3 2021 earnings

Q3 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Grand Canyon Education's third quarter results decreased due to decrease in operating income and net income.

Grand Canyon Education, Inc. reported financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2021. Service revenue increased, primarily due to increases in university partner enrollments and revenue per student. However, operating income and net income decreased compared to the same period in 2020.

  • Service revenue was $206.8 million compared to $198.4 million for the third quarter of 2020, driven by increases in university partner enrollments and revenue per student.
  • Partner enrollments totaled 118,832, an increase of 0.9% compared to September 30, 2020.
  • Operating income was $45.3 million, a decrease of $5.7 million compared to the same period in 2020.
  • Net income decreased 8.4% to $47.7 million compared to the same period in 2020.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$207M

Previous: $198M+4.2%
EPS (adj)

$1.11

Previous: $1.14-2.6%
University Partner Enrollments

118.8K

Previous: 117.8K+0.9%
Off-Campus Enrollments

5.7K

No prior period
Free Cash Flow

$47.7M

Previous: $52M-8.4%
Net Income

$47.7M

Previous: $52M-8.4%
Operating Income

$45.3M

Previous: $51M-11.2%
Gross Profit

$109M

Previous: $109M-0.4%
Cash & Equivalents

$61M

Previous: $167M-63.5%
Total Assets

$1.68B

Previous: $1.8B-6.7%

Revenue & EPS history

Grand Canyon Education · Revenue · Quarterly

$207M

Q3 2021+4.2%vs Q3 2020
Beat estimate in 14 of 16 quarters(88%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Grand Canyon Education · $207M total across 1 segment · Q3 2021

  • Service Revenue
    $207M+4.2%

Forward guidance

The company provided outlook for Q4 2021 and Full Year 2021.

Tailwinds

  • Q4 2021 Service revenue of between $252.0 million and $255.0 million
  • Q4 2021 As Adjusted Operating Margin of between 40.0% and 40.7%
  • Q4 2021 As Adjusted Diluted EPS of between $2.08 and $2.13 using 40.9 million diluted shares
  • Full Year 2021 Service revenue of between $897.2 million and $900.2 million
  • Full Year 2021 As Adjusted Operating Margin of between 32.0% and 32.2%

Headwinds

  • Full Year 2021 As Adjusted Diluted EPS of between $6.05 and $6.10 using 44.3 million diluted shares
  • Harm to our business, results of operations, and financial condition, and harm to our university partners resulting from epidemics, pandemics, including the continuing, and potential future, adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, or public health crises
  • The occurrence of any event, change or other circumstance that could give rise to the termination of any of our key university partner agreements
  • Our ability to properly manage risks and challenges associated with strategic initiatives, including potential acquisitions or divestitures of, or investments in, new businesses, acquisitions of new properties and new university partners, and expansion of services provided to our existing university partners
  • Our failure to comply with the extensive regulatory framework applicable to us either directly as a third party education services provider or indirectly through our university partners, including Title IV of the Higher Education Act and the regulations thereunder, state laws and regulatory requirements, and accrediting commission requirements

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2021

Historical avgQ3 2021

+3.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

+2.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.5%

Avg return

30 days after

65%

42 / 65 earnings

Positive

+21.9%

Q2 2012

Best reaction

-16.0%

Q1 2021

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+0.1%-2.7%-11.4%
Q4 2025-7.9%-6.5%-3.2%
Q3 2025-6.2%-5.2%-14.0%
Q1 2025+4.5%+5.5%+4.7%
Q4 2024+1.8%-3.6%-8.3%
Q3 2024+17.0%+22.0%+20.1%
Q2 2024-3.5%-2.6%-3.5%
Q1 2024+6.3%+7.6%+4.2%
Q4 2023+0.5%-1.4%-0.3%
Q3 2023+14.2%+13.8%+14.7%
Q2 2023+5.5%+1.5%+9.1%
Q1 2023-3.7%-6.6%-12.7%
Q4 2022+1.6%+3.0%-5.9%
Q3 2022+16.4%+17.3%+29.5%
Q2 2022-12.2%-14.0%-15.9%
Q1 2022+3.9%-3.0%-6.5%
Q4 2021+2.4%+5.8%+21.9%
Q3 2021-9.4%-9.5%-14.1%
Q2 2021-2.5%-2.7%-0.8%
Q1 2021-16.0%-11.7%-16.3%
Q4 2020+2.1%+2.7%+5.4%
Q3 2020-0.4%+2.3%+4.9%
Q2 2020+12.0%+10.3%+3.0%
Q1 2020+7.2%+9.2%+16.5%
Q4 2019-4.3%-6.2%-29.2%
Q3 2019-4.1%-4.1%-3.5%
Q2 2019+5.7%+8.5%-0.1%
Q1 2019-4.2%-1.8%+7.1%
Q4 2018+21.7%+19.8%+17.5%
Q3 2018-0.9%-2.8%-12.0%
Q2 2018-3.2%-2.7%-0.8%
Q1 2018+6.9%+5.4%+9.9%
Q4 2017+9.0%+10.6%+12.9%
Q3 2017-0.7%-0.7%+4.0%
Q2 2017+8.8%+10.2%+11.5%
Q1 2017+4.2%+6.0%+7.8%
Q4 2016+5.8%+5.0%+19.8%
Q3 2016+8.6%+11.2%+31.7%
Q2 2016+4.9%+4.8%-0.3%
Q1 2016-4.6%
Q4 2015+12.0%
Q3 2015+7.2%
Q2 2015-5.3%
Q1 2015+1.2%
Q4 2014+5.2%
Q3 2014+9.3%
Q2 2014-4.2%
Q1 2014+6.9%
Q4 2013+2.5%
Q3 2013+11.3%
Q2 2013-4.7%
Q1 2013+13.4%
Q4 2012+5.4%
Q3 2012+12.3%
Q2 2012+21.9%
Q1 2012+10.3%
Q4 2011-3.0%
Q4 2009-3.0%
Q3 2011-3.0%
Q3 2010-3.0%
Q2 2010+8.8%
Q2 2011+8.8%
Q1 2010+5.3%
Q4 2010+5.3%
Q1 2011+5.3%

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