NASDAQ$LOPE

Grand Canyon Education Inc. · Q2 2020 earnings

Q2 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Second quarter results of 2020 were announced.

Grand Canyon Education reported a service revenue increase of 6.3% year over year, primarily due to increased enrollments at university partners, but operating income decreased due to reduced ancillary revenues at GCU and fewer revenue-producing days.

  • Service revenue increased by 6.3% year-over-year to $185.8 million.
  • End-of-period enrollment in university partner programs increased by 8.2% to 98,326.
  • Operating income decreased to $48.3 million with an operating margin of 26.0%.
  • Net income decreased to $47.0 million, with diluted net income per share at $1.00.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$186M

Previous: $175M+6.3%
EPS (adj)

$1.03

Previous: $1.09-5.5%
University Partner Enrollments

98.3K

Previous: 90.9K+8.2%
Free Cash Flow

$47M

Previous: $51.1M-8.0%
Net Income

$47M

Previous: $51.1M-8.0%
Operating Income

$48.3M

Previous: $51M-5.3%
Gross Profit

$101M

Previous: $98M+3.1%
Cash & Equivalents

$173M

Previous: $65.8M+162.2%
Total Assets

$1.79B

Previous: $1.68B+6.7%

Revenue & EPS history

Grand Canyon Education · Revenue · Quarterly

$186M

Q2 2020+6.3%vs Q2 2019
Beat estimate in 16 of 16 quarters(100%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Grand Canyon Education · $186M total across 1 segment · Q2 2020

  • Service Revenue
    $186M+6.3%

Forward guidance

The company provided financial outlook for Q3 2020, Q4 2020 and full year 2020

Tailwinds

  • Net revenue of $197.5 million for Q3 2020
  • As Adjusted Operating Margin 26.3% for Q3 2020
  • As Adjusted Diluted EPS of $1.11 for Q3 2020 using 47.2 million diluted shares
  • Net revenue of $237.5 million for Q4 2020
  • As Adjusted Operating Margin 40.1% for Q4 2020

Headwinds

  • As Adjusted Diluted EPS of $1.80 for Q4 2020 using 47.2 million diluted shares
  • Net revenue of $842.4 million for full year 2020
  • As Adjusted Operating Margin 33.3% for full year 2020
  • As Adjusted Diluted EPS of $5.47 for full year 2020 using 47.3 million diluted shares
  • We estimate that the shift in net revenue from the third quarter to the fourth quarter as a result of the shift in the start date of the GCU Fall semester is $9.9 million lower revenue in the third quarter and $9.9 million higher revenue in the fourth quarter.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2020

Historical avgQ2 2020

+3.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

+2.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.5%

Avg return

30 days after

65%

42 / 65 earnings

Positive

+21.9%

Q2 2012

Best reaction

-16.0%

Q1 2021

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+0.1%-2.7%-11.4%
Q4 2025-7.9%-6.5%-3.2%
Q3 2025-6.2%-5.2%-14.0%
Q1 2025+4.5%+5.5%+4.7%
Q4 2024+1.8%-3.6%-8.3%
Q3 2024+17.0%+22.0%+20.1%
Q2 2024-3.5%-2.6%-3.5%
Q1 2024+6.3%+7.6%+4.2%
Q4 2023+0.5%-1.4%-0.3%
Q3 2023+14.2%+13.8%+14.7%
Q2 2023+5.5%+1.5%+9.1%
Q1 2023-3.7%-6.6%-12.7%
Q4 2022+1.6%+3.0%-5.9%
Q3 2022+16.4%+17.3%+29.5%
Q2 2022-12.2%-14.0%-15.9%
Q1 2022+3.9%-3.0%-6.5%
Q4 2021+2.4%+5.8%+21.9%
Q3 2021-9.4%-9.5%-14.1%
Q2 2021-2.5%-2.7%-0.8%
Q1 2021-16.0%-11.7%-16.3%
Q4 2020+2.1%+2.7%+5.4%
Q3 2020-0.4%+2.3%+4.9%
Q2 2020+12.0%+10.3%+3.0%
Q1 2020+7.2%+9.2%+16.5%
Q4 2019-4.3%-6.2%-29.2%
Q3 2019-4.1%-4.1%-3.5%
Q2 2019+5.7%+8.5%-0.1%
Q1 2019-4.2%-1.8%+7.1%
Q4 2018+21.7%+19.8%+17.5%
Q3 2018-0.9%-2.8%-12.0%
Q2 2018-3.2%-2.7%-0.8%
Q1 2018+6.9%+5.4%+9.9%
Q4 2017+9.0%+10.6%+12.9%
Q3 2017-0.7%-0.7%+4.0%
Q2 2017+8.8%+10.2%+11.5%
Q1 2017+4.2%+6.0%+7.8%
Q4 2016+5.8%+5.0%+19.8%
Q3 2016+8.6%+11.2%+31.7%
Q2 2016+4.9%+4.8%-0.3%
Q1 2016-4.6%
Q4 2015+12.0%
Q3 2015+7.2%
Q2 2015-5.3%
Q1 2015+1.2%
Q4 2014+5.2%
Q3 2014+9.3%
Q2 2014-4.2%
Q1 2014+6.9%
Q4 2013+2.5%
Q3 2013+11.3%
Q2 2013-4.7%
Q1 2013+13.4%
Q4 2012+5.4%
Q3 2012+12.3%
Q2 2012+21.9%
Q1 2012+10.3%
Q4 2011-3.0%
Q4 2009-3.0%
Q3 2011-3.0%
Q3 2010-3.0%
Q2 2010+8.8%
Q2 2011+8.8%
Q1 2010+5.3%
Q4 2010+5.3%
Q1 2011+5.3%

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