NASDAQ$LOPE

Grand Canyon Education Inc. · Q3 2022 earnings

Q3 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Third quarter results were reported.

Grand Canyon Education reported a slight increase in service revenue, driven by growth in traditional campus enrollments, but experienced a decrease in net income due to lower interest income and a higher operating margin.

  • Service revenue increased by 0.9% to $208.7 million compared to Q3 2021.
  • Partner enrollments totaled 116,202 at September 30, 2022, compared to 118,832 at September 30, 2021.
  • Operating income decreased to $35.5 million, with an operating margin of 17.0%.
  • Net income decreased by 37.0% to $30.0 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$209M

Previous: $207M+0.9%
EPS (adj)

$1.02

Previous: $1.11-8.1%
University Partner Enrollments

116.2K

Previous: 118.8K-2.2%
Off-Campus Enrollments

5.7K

Previous: 5.7K+0.8%
Free Cash Flow

$30M

Previous: $47.7M-37.0%
Net Income

$30M

Previous: $47.7M-37.0%
Operating Income

$35.5M

Previous: $45.3M-21.6%
Gross Profit

-$5M

Previous: $109M-104.6%
Cash & Equivalents

$39.9M

Previous: $61M-34.6%
Total Assets

$785M

Previous: $1.68B-53.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Grand Canyon Education · Revenue · Quarterly

$209M

Q3 2022+0.9%vs Q3 2021
Beat estimate in 9 of 15 quarters(60%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Grand Canyon Education · $209M total across 1 segment · Q3 2022

  • Service Revenue
    $209M+0.9%

Forward guidance

Grand Canyon Education provided an outlook for Q4 2022 and the full year 2022.

Tailwinds

  • Service revenue of between $255.5 million and $256.5 million for Q4 2022.
  • Operating margin of between 34.0% and 34.1% for Q4 2022.
  • Effective tax rate of 23.0% for Q4 2022.
  • Diluted EPS of between $2.18 and $2.19 for Q4 2022.
  • Service revenue of between $908.1 million and $909.1 million for full year 2022.

Headwinds

  • Operating margin of between 25.7% and 25.8% for full year 2022.
  • Effective tax rate of 23.2% for full year 2022.
  • Diluted EPS between $5.61 and $5.62 for full year 2022.
  • The diluted EPS guidance includes non-cash amortization of intangible assets net of taxes of $1.6 million for Q4 2022.
  • The diluted EPS guidance includes non-cash amortization of intangible assets net of taxes of $6.5 million and losses on fixed asset disposals net of taxes of $0.9 million for full year 2022.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2022

Historical avgQ3 2022

+3.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

+2.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.5%

Avg return

30 days after

65%

42 / 65 earnings

Positive

+21.9%

Q2 2012

Best reaction

-16.0%

Q1 2021

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+0.1%-2.7%-11.4%
Q4 2025-7.9%-6.5%-3.2%
Q3 2025-6.2%-5.2%-14.0%
Q1 2025+4.5%+5.5%+4.7%
Q4 2024+1.8%-3.6%-8.3%
Q3 2024+17.0%+22.0%+20.1%
Q2 2024-3.5%-2.6%-3.5%
Q1 2024+6.3%+7.6%+4.2%
Q4 2023+0.5%-1.4%-0.3%
Q3 2023+14.2%+13.8%+14.7%
Q2 2023+5.5%+1.5%+9.1%
Q1 2023-3.7%-6.6%-12.7%
Q4 2022+1.6%+3.0%-5.9%
Q3 2022+16.4%+17.3%+29.5%
Q2 2022-12.2%-14.0%-15.9%
Q1 2022+3.9%-3.0%-6.5%
Q4 2021+2.4%+5.8%+21.9%
Q3 2021-9.4%-9.5%-14.1%
Q2 2021-2.5%-2.7%-0.8%
Q1 2021-16.0%-11.7%-16.3%
Q4 2020+2.1%+2.7%+5.4%
Q3 2020-0.4%+2.3%+4.9%
Q2 2020+12.0%+10.3%+3.0%
Q1 2020+7.2%+9.2%+16.5%
Q4 2019-4.3%-6.2%-29.2%
Q3 2019-4.1%-4.1%-3.5%
Q2 2019+5.7%+8.5%-0.1%
Q1 2019-4.2%-1.8%+7.1%
Q4 2018+21.7%+19.8%+17.5%
Q3 2018-0.9%-2.8%-12.0%
Q2 2018-3.2%-2.7%-0.8%
Q1 2018+6.9%+5.4%+9.9%
Q4 2017+9.0%+10.6%+12.9%
Q3 2017-0.7%-0.7%+4.0%
Q2 2017+8.8%+10.2%+11.5%
Q1 2017+4.2%+6.0%+7.8%
Q4 2016+5.8%+5.0%+19.8%
Q3 2016+8.6%+11.2%+31.7%
Q2 2016+4.9%+4.8%-0.3%
Q1 2016-4.6%
Q4 2015+12.0%
Q3 2015+7.2%
Q2 2015-5.3%
Q1 2015+1.2%
Q4 2014+5.2%
Q3 2014+9.3%
Q2 2014-4.2%
Q1 2014+6.9%
Q4 2013+2.5%
Q3 2013+11.3%
Q2 2013-4.7%
Q1 2013+13.4%
Q4 2012+5.4%
Q3 2012+12.3%
Q2 2012+21.9%
Q1 2012+10.3%
Q4 2011-3.0%
Q4 2009-3.0%
Q3 2011-3.0%
Q3 2010-3.0%
Q2 2010+8.8%
Q2 2011+8.8%
Q1 2010+5.3%
Q4 2010+5.3%
Q1 2011+5.3%

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