NASDAQ$LOPE

Grand Canyon Education Inc. · Q4 2019 earnings

Q4 2019 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Grand Canyon Education's Q4 2019 financial results were announced, demonstrating growth driven by the Orbis Education acquisition and increased GCU enrollments.

Grand Canyon Education reported a service revenue increase of 20.1% to $213.2 million for Q4 2019, driven by the Orbis Education acquisition and growth in GCU enrollments. Net income increased by 1.5% to $76.7 million, with diluted net income per share at $1.59. The company's Board of Directors also increased the stock repurchase program authorization by $75.0 million.

  • Service revenue increased by 20.1% to $213.2 million compared to Q4 2018.
  • End-of-period enrollment at university partners increased by 9.7% to 106,861.
  • Operating income increased to $82.0 million, up from $80.1 million in the same period of 2018.
  • Net income rose by 1.5% to $76.7 million compared to $75.5 million in Q4 2018.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$213M

Previous: $178M+20.1%
EPS (adj)

$1.63

Previous: $1.56+4.5%
University Partner Enrollments

106.9K

Previous: 97.4K+9.7%
Net Income

$76.7M

Previous: $75.5M+1.5%
Operating Income

$82M

Previous: $80.1M+2.3%
Gross Profit

$128M

Previous: $115M+11.6%
Cash & Equivalents

$122M

Previous: $120M+1.6%
Total Assets

$1.69B

Previous: $1.32B+27.7%

Revenue & EPS history

Grand Canyon Education · Revenue · Quarterly

$213M

Q4 2019+20.1%vs Q4 2018
Beat estimate in 16 of 16 quarters(100%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Grand Canyon Education · $213M total across 1 segment · Q4 2019

  • Service Revenue
    $213M+20.1%

Forward guidance

Grand Canyon Education provided its outlook for the full year 2020. GCE expects net revenue of $856.0 million; As Adjusted Operating Margin 34.5%; As Adjusted Diluted EPS of $5.58 using 48.0 million diluted shares

Tailwinds

  • Q1 2020: Net revenue of $222.5 million
  • Q1 2020: As Adjusted Operating Margin 37.0%
  • Q1 2020: As Adjusted Diluted EPS of $1.53 using 48.0 million diluted shares
  • Q4 2020: Net revenue of $235.0 million
  • Q4 2020: As Adjusted Operating Margin 39.1%

Headwinds

  • Q2 2020: Net revenue of $188.5 million
  • Q2 2020: As Adjusted Operating Margin 27.3%
  • Q2 2020: As Adjusted Diluted EPS of $1.03 using 47.9 million diluted shares
  • Q3 2020: Net revenue of $210.0 million
  • Q3 2020: As Adjusted Operating Margin 33.3%

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2019

Historical avgQ4 2019

+3.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

+2.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.5%

Avg return

30 days after

65%

42 / 65 earnings

Positive

+21.9%

Q2 2012

Best reaction

-16.0%

Q1 2021

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+0.1%-2.7%-11.4%
Q4 2025-7.9%-6.5%-3.2%
Q3 2025-6.2%-5.2%-14.0%
Q1 2025+4.5%+5.5%+4.7%
Q4 2024+1.8%-3.6%-8.3%
Q3 2024+17.0%+22.0%+20.1%
Q2 2024-3.5%-2.6%-3.5%
Q1 2024+6.3%+7.6%+4.2%
Q4 2023+0.5%-1.4%-0.3%
Q3 2023+14.2%+13.8%+14.7%
Q2 2023+5.5%+1.5%+9.1%
Q1 2023-3.7%-6.6%-12.7%
Q4 2022+1.6%+3.0%-5.9%
Q3 2022+16.4%+17.3%+29.5%
Q2 2022-12.2%-14.0%-15.9%
Q1 2022+3.9%-3.0%-6.5%
Q4 2021+2.4%+5.8%+21.9%
Q3 2021-9.4%-9.5%-14.1%
Q2 2021-2.5%-2.7%-0.8%
Q1 2021-16.0%-11.7%-16.3%
Q4 2020+2.1%+2.7%+5.4%
Q3 2020-0.4%+2.3%+4.9%
Q2 2020+12.0%+10.3%+3.0%
Q1 2020+7.2%+9.2%+16.5%
Q4 2019-4.3%-6.2%-29.2%
Q3 2019-4.1%-4.1%-3.5%
Q2 2019+5.7%+8.5%-0.1%
Q1 2019-4.2%-1.8%+7.1%
Q4 2018+21.7%+19.8%+17.5%
Q3 2018-0.9%-2.8%-12.0%
Q2 2018-3.2%-2.7%-0.8%
Q1 2018+6.9%+5.4%+9.9%
Q4 2017+9.0%+10.6%+12.9%
Q3 2017-0.7%-0.7%+4.0%
Q2 2017+8.8%+10.2%+11.5%
Q1 2017+4.2%+6.0%+7.8%
Q4 2016+5.8%+5.0%+19.8%
Q3 2016+8.6%+11.2%+31.7%
Q2 2016+4.9%+4.8%-0.3%
Q1 2016-4.6%
Q4 2015+12.0%
Q3 2015+7.2%
Q2 2015-5.3%
Q1 2015+1.2%
Q4 2014+5.2%
Q3 2014+9.3%
Q2 2014-4.2%
Q1 2014+6.9%
Q4 2013+2.5%
Q3 2013+11.3%
Q2 2013-4.7%
Q1 2013+13.4%
Q4 2012+5.4%
Q3 2012+12.3%
Q2 2012+21.9%
Q1 2012+10.3%
Q4 2011-3.0%
Q4 2009-3.0%
Q3 2011-3.0%
Q3 2010-3.0%
Q2 2010+8.8%
Q2 2011+8.8%
Q1 2010+5.3%
Q4 2010+5.3%
Q1 2011+5.3%

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