NASDAQ$LOPE

Grand Canyon Education Inc. · Q1 2020 earnings

Q1 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Grand Canyon Education's first quarter results were announced.

Grand Canyon Education reported a service revenue of $221.7 million for the first quarter of 2020, compared to $197.3 million for the first quarter of 2019, representing a 12.4% increase. The company's operating income increased to $80.8 million, while net income decreased slightly to $71.4 million. Diluted net income per share was $1.49, and adjusted diluted net income per share was $1.53.

  • Service revenue increased by 12.4% year over year, reaching $221.7 million.
  • End-of-period enrollment in university partner programs increased by 5.8% to 107,591.
  • Operating income increased to $80.8 million, with an operating margin of 36.5%.
  • Net income decreased slightly to $71.4 million, with a diluted net income per share of $1.49.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$222M

Previous: $197M+12.4%
EPS (adj)

$1.53

Previous: $1.62-5.6%
University Partner Enrollments

4.0K

Previous: 3.4K+18.2%
Free Cash Flow

$71.4M

Previous: $73.2M-2.5%
Net Income

$71.4M

Previous: $73.2M-2.5%
Operating Income

$80.8M

Previous: $72.4M+11.5%
Gross Profit

$135M

Previous: $125M+8.0%
Cash & Equivalents

$132M

Previous: $88.5M+49.8%
Total Assets

$1.73B

Previous: $1.62B+6.9%

Revenue & EPS history

Grand Canyon Education · Revenue · Quarterly

$222M

Q1 2020+12.4%vs Q1 2019
Beat estimate in 16 of 16 quarters(100%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Grand Canyon Education · $222M total across 1 segment · Q1 2020

  • Service Revenue
    $222M+12.4%

Forward guidance

The company expects lower service revenues under both the Master Services Agreement with GCU and under the Orbis Education’s services agreements for the second and third quarters of 2020.

Headwinds

  • Traditional ground university students that elected to move off campus are receiving partial refunds for dormitory and meal payments related to the Spring semester.
  • Ancillary businesses such as the hotel, golf course, and merchandise shops were closed in late March, which reduced and will continue to reduce GCU’s revenues.
  • Summer semester classes will be moved to an online environment and limited residential students are expected.
  • GCU’s doctoral students are required to attend two residencies on the university’s campus and at its hotel in Phoenix, Arizona as part of their dissertation.
  • The decision by a number of the Orbis Education’s university partners to cancel or postpone the Summer and/or Fall semesters would have a material impact on the service revenue earned by the Company.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2020

Historical avgQ1 2020

+3.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

+2.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.5%

Avg return

30 days after

65%

42 / 65 earnings

Positive

+21.9%

Q2 2012

Best reaction

-16.0%

Q1 2021

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+0.1%-2.7%-11.4%
Q4 2025-7.9%-6.5%-3.2%
Q3 2025-6.2%-5.2%-14.0%
Q1 2025+4.5%+5.5%+4.7%
Q4 2024+1.8%-3.6%-8.3%
Q3 2024+17.0%+22.0%+20.1%
Q2 2024-3.5%-2.6%-3.5%
Q1 2024+6.3%+7.6%+4.2%
Q4 2023+0.5%-1.4%-0.3%
Q3 2023+14.2%+13.8%+14.7%
Q2 2023+5.5%+1.5%+9.1%
Q1 2023-3.7%-6.6%-12.7%
Q4 2022+1.6%+3.0%-5.9%
Q3 2022+16.4%+17.3%+29.5%
Q2 2022-12.2%-14.0%-15.9%
Q1 2022+3.9%-3.0%-6.5%
Q4 2021+2.4%+5.8%+21.9%
Q3 2021-9.4%-9.5%-14.1%
Q2 2021-2.5%-2.7%-0.8%
Q1 2021-16.0%-11.7%-16.3%
Q4 2020+2.1%+2.7%+5.4%
Q3 2020-0.4%+2.3%+4.9%
Q2 2020+12.0%+10.3%+3.0%
Q1 2020+7.2%+9.2%+16.5%
Q4 2019-4.3%-6.2%-29.2%
Q3 2019-4.1%-4.1%-3.5%
Q2 2019+5.7%+8.5%-0.1%
Q1 2019-4.2%-1.8%+7.1%
Q4 2018+21.7%+19.8%+17.5%
Q3 2018-0.9%-2.8%-12.0%
Q2 2018-3.2%-2.7%-0.8%
Q1 2018+6.9%+5.4%+9.9%
Q4 2017+9.0%+10.6%+12.9%
Q3 2017-0.7%-0.7%+4.0%
Q2 2017+8.8%+10.2%+11.5%
Q1 2017+4.2%+6.0%+7.8%
Q4 2016+5.8%+5.0%+19.8%
Q3 2016+8.6%+11.2%+31.7%
Q2 2016+4.9%+4.8%-0.3%
Q1 2016-4.6%
Q4 2015+12.0%
Q3 2015+7.2%
Q2 2015-5.3%
Q1 2015+1.2%
Q4 2014+5.2%
Q3 2014+9.3%
Q2 2014-4.2%
Q1 2014+6.9%
Q4 2013+2.5%
Q3 2013+11.3%
Q2 2013-4.7%
Q1 2013+13.4%
Q4 2012+5.4%
Q3 2012+12.3%
Q2 2012+21.9%
Q1 2012+10.3%
Q4 2011-3.0%
Q4 2009-3.0%
Q3 2011-3.0%
Q3 2010-3.0%
Q2 2010+8.8%
Q2 2011+8.8%
Q1 2010+5.3%
Q4 2010+5.3%
Q1 2011+5.3%

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